Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
218 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Dry conditions are expected through the short term. The upper ridge
will settle firmly into place by late Wednesday. Some cooler air
dipping into the east with Canadian sfc high pressure Wednesday
morning will also throw a wrench in the works as some stratus may be
drawn down with the shortwave in the axis of the high. Cloud cover
will keep highs on Wednesday in the 60s across the east. Models are
likely a little too low on the highs, however, as well as a few
degrees too warm on lows.

Before the clouds move in, the main concern will be frost potential
tonight. For now, it looks like lows will fall into the upper 30s to
lower 40s tonight with some isolated cooler temps as winds become
almost calm under the high. Have some patchy frost mentioned in the
grids for a few hours toward morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Initially both the GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs show good
consistency in placement of the upper low over the Appalachians, and
a broad area of mid level ridging across the central portion of the
country. Surface high pressure will extend along the back side of
the low to the east, encompassing the forecast area for dry
conditions through the weekend. For next week, both the GFS/ECMWF
deterministic runs indicate a longwave trof moving across the
Rockies. The GFS is about a day ahead of the ECMWF bringing an
negatively tilted shortwave around the base of the longwave trof.
There will be a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE along the frontal passage,
so will continue mention of thunder.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

VFR conditions for KPIR/KMBG terminals. A layer of MVFR CIGS will
move into the KATY area and also possibly KABR overnight and into
the morning hours Wednesday. All terminals will see winds shift
from west/northwest to north/northeast overnight as well.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Connelly is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.