000
FXUS63 KABR 101431 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
931 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions return this afternoon over central South Dakota
  (gusts 30-45 mph) out of the northwest, and Thursday across central
  and northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota (gusts of 30
  to 35 mph) out of the north/northwest.

- A disturbance will generate a chance (25-40 percent) for afternoon
  and evening showers and thunderstorms today. No severe weather is
  expected.

- Above normal high temperatures continue into early next week,
  highest Friday through Sunday (around 20 degrees above normal).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Only minor updates this morning, overall the forecast is doing
fine.

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

An upper level trough will be over the central part of the country
today, with a shortwave tracking over the Northern Plains this
afternoon providing upper level energy into the day Thursday before
it fully exits the area late Thursday afternoon.

At the surface, a frontal boundary will track from west to east
across the area today. Will see MUCAPE values between 200-400 J/kg
this afternoon, along with 20 to 30 knots of shear. These
conditions, aided by the aforementioned upper level energy, should
be enough to produce some shower activity, along with the chance (25
to 40 percent) for thunderstorms. The chance for precipitation will
continue tonight, then may linger just across the far eastern part
of the CWA into the day Thursday. As the front moves east, will see
the pressure gradient between it and high pressure over
Montana/Wyoming tighten, resulting in wind gusts in excess of 40 mph
late this morning into the evening hours. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for the area west of the Missouri River. The high will only
make its way as far as the western Dakota by Thursday, so windy
conditions with gusts in excess of 30 mph will be possible across
the entire CWA on Thursday. Relative humidity values look to fall
below 25 percent along and west of the Missouri River Thursday
afternoon, and in combination with the gusty winds, fire danger will
be elevated. Therefore, have issued a Fire Weather Watch for that
area Thursday afternoon and evening.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s
across central South Dakota, to the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Low
temperatures tonight will be range from the lower 30s west of the
Missouri River, to the lower 40s across far northeastern South
Dakota and west central Minnesota. Highs on Thursday will be in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Thursday night a ridge moves into our area and remains in place into
Monday afternoon. Monday evening, the EC and the GFS are showing a
bit of a trough pattern forming. Both have a lows centered in
eastern WY to western SD/NE. After this things start to get messy.
Tuesday afternoon, the EC shows 4 lows in the upper half of the
CONUS. The two northern lows combine overnight Tuesday with the one
over southern WY moving northeast into the Dakotas. Wednesday,
this low gets wrapped into the northern low. While this is
happening the eastern low keeps moving east. Exact details differ
between models but the basic story is the same, days with an
abundance of shortwave energy over our region.

This energy will combine with relatively deep moisture to bring some
widespread rain chances to the area Monday (20 to 40%) and Tuesday
(50 to 60%) with some possible storms Monday evening. There is a
chance for some lightning and small hail, but strong storms are not
expected for the moment. Rain amounts are still up in the air as
well since models are not in agreement as to track and strength.
Chances start to diminish through the day Wednesday.

The area is going to see some strong WAA Saturday with winds from
the south. This is going to significantly raise temperatures. Expect
highs 15 to 25 degrees above average this weekend. Temperatures
start to decrease Tuesday into mid week as the rain chances move in.
The only noteworthy winds are Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
afternoons as gusts could get up to around 30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.
Rain showers are possible this afternoon and evening, and cannot
rule out a thunderstorm or two. Will not mention in any of the
TAFs due to the uncertainty of exact location and timing.
Northwest winds will increase into the 15 to 30 knot range by mid
to late morning, with gusts in excess of 40 knots possible across
central South Dakota. Wind speeds will diminish around sunset this
evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-
     015-033-045-048.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin