000
FXUS63 KABR 132038
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SURROUNDS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF IT BECOMES STRONG TO
SEVERE.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY OVERHEAD
HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA ON EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

LATE TONIGHT THE RETURN FLOW/ELEVATED WAA PATTERN THAT SETS UP AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. ANY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL WORK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION...LIKELY ENDING BY LATE MORNING. INCREASING EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR AND EML INSTABILITY COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
STRONG ELEVATED STORM OR TWO. BUT A GREATER THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
/ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY/ WHERE A SLIGHT RISK
AREA CONTINUES AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA
ON FRIDAY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE /SUPER CELLULAR/ THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP...IF THE CAP CAN BE ERODED ENOUGH. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER AT AND ABOVE 700HPA WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
COULD END UP KEEPING THE LID ON AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

THE MAJORITY OF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH STABLE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHORTWAVE/OCCLUDED LOW WILL BE DRIFTING OVER THE NORTHER
PLAINS...FROM MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. TROF
PASSAGE WILL HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...SO UNDER WEAK WESTERLY MID
LEVELS FLOW...AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...PROFILES
DURING PEAK HEATING WILL BE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE. COLD ADVECTION
TAKES OVER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
DIPPING TO +10 TO +12C BY MONDAY PM.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
MONDAY PM AS WELL. SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME ARE RELATIVELY
STABLE...SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A WIND SHIFT.

WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARMEST MID LEVEL AIR WILL
FOLLOW...DELAYED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVING US
WITH SEVERAL DAYS IN WHICH WE COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY...SHIFTING AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING WEAK ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING INTO THE VICINITY OF
KMBG/KPIR TONIGHT AND KATY/ABR DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER NOT
CONFIDENT ON TIMING SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF 18Z TAFS. SAID
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...AGAIN...WILL OPT OUT AND MENTION HERE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN