Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270547 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1147 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 06Z TAFS.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. ADDED SOME LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
LYMAN BOOT HEEL AREA AS EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE NUDGING
JUST A TAD FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY
COVER A BIT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH SHOWS MBG AND
PIR HAVING REMOVED LOWER CIGS...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS STILL
STREAMING NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES THERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NOW HEADED INTO THE COTEAU. UNCERTAIN HOW
THE ADDITIONAL TERRAIN HEIGHT WILL IMPACT THIS FEATURE AS RETURNS
PETER OUT AROUND 2KFT AGL. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS YET TO
CAPTURE IT AS WELL. AS TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CLOUD LAYER CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY COOL...SEEING A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
RETURNS HAVE BEEN GOING ON ALL DAY UPSTREAM WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT TO
VISIBILITY AND THUS ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AS WELL...WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OR THINNING
EVIDENT OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON SATELLITE...WITH ASOS PREDOMINANTLY
SHOWING CLOUDS. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP...THOUGH A CRASH
IN TEMPERATURES LIKELY WITH ANY HOLES IN CLOUD COVER THAT DO PASS
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH FOR SATURDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST WHICH WILL HELP WITH CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

PRECIP CHANCES...PRIOR TO THE NEXT EPISODE OF UPPER LEVEL SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SEWD
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW /GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES/ TO PRIMARILY THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AND WEST RIVER COUNTIES. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE
SURFACE/PBL WINDS DURING SAID PERIOD EXPECTED TO AIDE IN LIGHT
SNOW GENERATION. THEN...LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW ALONG
AND POST-FRONTAL.

TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE JUMPING ON THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER AGAIN THIS NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT
COULD BE THE "WARMEST" PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...AS MODELS PROG A
SHARP /925-850HPA/ TEMPERATURE DROP ON SUNDAY THAT DRAGS ARCTIC
COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION THAT IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT MODELS PROG SOME LOW LEVEL WAA PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FROPA
LATE IN THE WEEK. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS A LITTLE
BIT OFF TIMING-WISE WITH THE FROPA AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
BOTH SHOW ANOTHER COOL DOWN POSSIBLY WAITING IN THE WINGS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS HAVE LEFT KMBG WITH GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR
CIGS UPSTREAM MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY SUNRISE. KPIR EARLIER SAW
LOW CIGS DEPART...BUT THEY HAVE RETURNED. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT KPIR AS JUST PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE HERE. OVER KABR
AND KATY...SATELLITE TRENDS SEEM TO INDICATE A GRADUAL EROSION OF
THE LOWER CIGS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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