000
FXUS63 KABR 280529 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1129 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
EAST...AND AS LOW AS 3 DEGREES IN ABERDEEN DECIDED TO DROP
OVERNIGHT LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
AND AROUND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS
QUIET AND NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...UNDER A SUNNY SKY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 20S OVER BARE GROUND
AREAS...AND THROUGH THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO OVER SNOW-COVERED AREAS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES DEPICT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION
WORKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN
U.S. ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERGO SPLIT
FLOW TONIGHT...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A BIT BEFORE
MAKING SOMEWHAT OF AN ABRUPT TURN...HEADING MORE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT AS SUPER COLD AS AIR BEHIND
RECENT STRONG COLD FROPAS. AND THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH DRY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION /LOW CONFIDENCE/ THAT
LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AND STREAM UP INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA. A SOMEWHAT MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION
/LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE/ IS SEEING LOW STRATUS WORK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST IN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO OUT OF THIS
STRATUS...BUT FOR NOW...THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A /WARMING/ WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
POSSIBLY STILL A BIT ON THE COOL-SIDE...TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY AND CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST OF MARCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ALL MODELS ARE
SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF AND
THE CURRENT VERSION OF THE GEM SHOW WAA LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE GFS WHICH SHOWS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE THE WAA. THE AIR MASS
IS MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A DRY
MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF OMAHA...THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THIS CWA IS UNLIKELY.
A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WAA
DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
AROUND 3500 TO 6000 FT MAY MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING
AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE