000
FXUS63 KABR 121432 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
932 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE IS OUT. ADJUSTED POPS COVERAGE/TIMING TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SHOULD BE DEALING PRIMARILY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. PRECIPITATION IS NOT MOVING
OVERLY FAST THIS MORNING AND THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL NOTED ON THE RADAR OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST ZONES AND ADJUSTED DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST ZONES IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD-COVER WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO HANG ON THE LONGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
DURING HEATING TODAY.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AS OF 09Z...THE REGION IS SITUATED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. AN EAST/WEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DISPLAYED JUST SOUTH OF THIS CWA WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN CWA...AND CENTRAL MONTANA THANKS TO A
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT WAVE...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH DRY BUT SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS NOW IN THE LOW 70S TO THE LOW 80S.

SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. LOW LEVEL TEMPS OFF
THE GFS ARE BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE...WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION
FOR RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS. WHILE RECORD SETTING COLD IN JULY IS
A RARE EVENT...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN JULY IS NOT UNCOMMON.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KABR ON JULY 1ST THIS YEAR WAS ONLY 62
DEGREES. LOOKING AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATABASE...KABR AVERAGES
ONE DAY IN JULY IN WHICH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS ONLY IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED COOL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL POPS BACK UP
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY
FRIDAY.

THE SFC HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY EXTENDED. PRECIP
CHANCES DO NOT RETURN UNTIL FRI NIGHT OR SAT WHEN THE LOW BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.
BESIDES THE BRIEF REDUCTION TO CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGEST STORMS...VFR SHOULD BE THE MAIN FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN