765
FXUS63 KABR 291145 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
645 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms moving through central SD early this
  morning may bring wind gusts around 60-70mph. More widely
  scattered showers/storms late afternoon into early evening, but
  with low severe storm potential.

- Less humid conditions by this afternoon lasting into Monday, with
  precipitation chances decreasing as well.

- Heat and humidity return by the end of the week with highs
  approaching 90 once again and dewpoints back into the 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Next mid-level shortwave energy is moving eastward across WY and
generating showers and thunderstorms across western/central SD.
Expect this activity to continue moving eastward through the
early/mid morning hours, with wind gusts around 50 mph at times in
stronger cores. A bit uncertain how long this complex will hold and
how much, if any, decrease in areal coverage we`ll see as it moves
across the state. Will likely need to make further PoP adjustments
over the next few hours. After this wave moves out later this
morning, yet another piece of energy further upstream in the mid-
level flow looks to move into the area. CAMs are generating
additional shower/thunderstorm activity moving into central SD late
afternoon and pushing eastward across the region into the evening
hours. Although, this appears to be more widely scattered in nature,
and again we`ll be looking at low severe storm potential with a more
stable atmosphere in place today.

On Monday, mid-level flow becomes northwesterly as drier dewpoints
in the 50s overspread the area. Surface high pressure builds into
the region which will lead to mostly dry conditions across the area.
Although, will have to watch the far eastern CWA for shower
potential closer to the main shortwave energy further east.
Environment is characterized by steep lapse rates out that way as
well.

Next opportunity for precipitation comes Tuesday night as a low-
level jet gets going again across the Northern Plains. Surface
boundary also begins pushing northward into southern SD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of SHRA/TSRA continues to move eastward across the region,
possibly affecting the TAF sites through mid/late morning. MVFR
CIGs are also affecting KATY and it`s unclear how long these stick
around, but have them going away mid morning. Otherwise, mostly
VFR conditions should materialize by this afternoon, with
potentially another round of more widely scattered -SHRA/-TSRA by
late afternoon into the evening hours. Confidence in this is
fairly low, but handled it with a PROB30 for at least KPIR/KMBG
for the time being.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT