Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 261745
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREA OF RAIN NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
CWA...WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST ACROSS THE EAST. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
WITH A RESIDUAL VORT LOBE BEING SHEARED OUT ACROSS ND. FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS HAVE COVERED THE CWA WITH AREAS
OF DRIZZLE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA. HAD ALREADY INCLUDED
MENTION OF DRIZZLE LAST EVENING AND WILL KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS THINKING.
VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DRYING ALOFT. MID LEVELS DO NOT MOISTEN
UNTIL LATER TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS.

STILL ON TRACK TO RECEIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. DID DELAY ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...LOOKING AT MAINLY SHOWERS. BULK OF THE
PRECIP MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES APPEARS LIKELY STILL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE UNDER AN INCH. COLDER AIR STILL EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
NONETHELESS. SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
TEMPS WILL BE COOL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM THANKS TO THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A S/W RIDGE WILL EXIST
OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A MAJOR WAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND.  THIS WAVE
WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.  BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK THAT SYSTEM SHOULD SHEAR
OFF TO THE EAST WITH RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER WORKING ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS REMAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM
THELOWER CLOUDS E...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO ALL MVFR IS EXPECTED AT
ABR ANDATY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER FROM THE
BROAD AREAOF SHRA THAT WAS OVER PIR AROUND 14Z. THE NEXT ROUND OF
MORE STEADYRA LOOKS TO SLIDE IN AROUND PIR/MBG AROUND 00Z...AND
EXPAND CENTRALAND E OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN MOST
SITES SHOULD FALLBACK INTO IFR IF NOT LIFR TEMPORARILY. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONSAT LEAST AT ABR AND ATY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BACK TO MVFR.
&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...KF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.