Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 292309 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
609 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS THIS EVENING TO KEEP SHOWERS MENTION CONFINED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH CWA. ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR POSSIBLE COLD AIR
FUNNELS THIS EVENING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE LOW CENTERED OVER
SIOUX CITY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA WITH THE HIGH
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST THE FAR EAST STILL SEEING A MORE SOLID DECK
OF CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO
WARM...BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO RISE...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. SO FAR...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE CWA ON
THE NOSE OF A 40-50KT LLJ AND NORTH OF A +10 TO +12 DEGREE MID
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. CONDITIONS BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THIS CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE CAP WEAKENS AND DECENT INSTABILITY AND 45 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS
THE EAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME
TO AN END BY LATE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...LEAVING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH ON SATURDAY...AND WITH CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 70S.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT...SO INHERITED ALLBLEND POP GRIDS
LOOKED GOOD FOR THIS. THINGS GET A BIT MORE UNCLEAR BY THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WEEK AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE EJECTING
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS VARYING ON THIS THOUGH...WITH THE GFS
BEING RATHER QUICK TO BRING THE LOW OUT ONTO THE PLAINS VS THE
SLOWER EC AND GEM SOLUTIONS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK...GIVEN WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR 850MB TEMPS...EXPECTING
MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR KATY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN AWAY FROM
OTHER TAF SITES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TONIGHT FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS ONCE
AGAIN...MAINLY OVER KATY AND KABR...SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS.
THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG AS WELL BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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