Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 152116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
316 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

The main challenge in the short term continues to be the cold air
and potential for bitterly cold wind chills through midday Tuesday
or so. A strong surface high currently centered over eastern
Montana/western North Dakota will slowly drift southeastward
tonight, becoming centered over the CWA by 12Z Tuesday. With
temperatures not making it above zero in most locations today, will
see them plummet into the teens and 20s below zero overnight. Breezy
winds will diminish some around sunset, but remain around 10 MPH or
higher during the evening, then will diminish to around 5 MPH or so
by sunrise. Will see wind chills remain in warning/advisory criteria
through late morning on Tuesday, so will leave headlines in place
through 18Z. Under the influence of the strong high, conditions will
be dry tonight and Tuesday.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens and 20s below zero.
High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower single digits
above zero east to around 10 degrees west of the Missouri River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Overall, the extended period looks dry, at least early on. Not
many changes were made from inherited grids. It does appear we
will see some downslope winds Tuesday night, and perhaps again
Wednesday night, so wind grids were adjusted to account for this.
Still anticipating a warm up by the end of the week as 925 mb
temps warm into the single digits above zero Celsius. Highs in the
30s and 40s still appear likely, especially given the lack of
snow cover across the region.

For the weekend, models continue to show a storm system moving
across the Plains. Latest runs continue to keep this system south of
the area and not affecting us. Of course, we are still several days
away and expect numerous changes to models as we get closer, with
the possibility models shift things north again.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
through midday Tuesday. There may be a few areas of scattered to
occasionally broken MVFR cigs across parts of the southern and
eastern CWA through mid afternoon today.


SD...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ039-046.



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