Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 161114 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
614 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Main concern for today is the fire danger developing over the
western CWA this afternoon. Warm front will move into the western
counties mid to late afternoon, with gusty southerly winds out ahead
of the front. Core of strong 850mb winds moves through central SD
into the James Valley late morning through early afternoon before
moving into ND. There looks to be a period of fairly strong and
gusty winds (perhaps nearing advisory levels) from the Missouri
River into the James River from late morning into early afternoon.
Rather mild/warm air will be moving into the region as well, with
highs rising into the 70s and 80s. Main thing to watch will be the
warmth over central SD combined with the drying air near and behind
the warm front as it finally moves into the western CWA by mid to
late afternoon. RH`s are forecast to tank into the teens and 20s
this afternoon along and west of the Missouri River, especially over
fire weather zone 267. Decided to expand the Red Flag warning into
fire zone 268 as new dewpoint/RH forecast has trended drier. Would
not be surprised if reality ends up being even drier than forecast
which happens many times in these scenarios. Inverted V soundings
over western/central SD today with deep mixing and dry adiabatic
lapse rates. Also had a wildfire in Corson county last evening so
feel a RFW in this area will also prompt resources and awareness.
Strongest winds are actually expected ahead of the warm front, with
slightly lighter winds behind the front. There may even be a lull
for a time directly under the trough axis. This does throw a wrinkle
into things just a bit, as does the potential mid/high cloud shield
moving over the area today.

Focus will then shift to Monday as cooler air moves in along with
shortwave energy. Surface low also moves northeast across the
central Plains. Fairly decent dynamics slide over the northern half
of SD during the day Monday into Monday evening. POPs have been
increased a bit over the northern CWA. System will move out of the
area Monday evening, with seasonable temperatures for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

A long wave pattern transition looks to take place during the long
term. Nearly flat/fast flow aloft will begin to buckle significantly
early in the period, with the formation of a somewhat progressive
western conus ridge, and eastern conus trof.  In between over the
ABR cwa, heights will begin to rise as the ridge builds. This should
lead to a mostly dry setup across the forecast area. About the only
decent chance of pcpn should come next weekend as a system digs
toward the Northern Plains. Temperatures, overall, should average
out near to slightly above normal during the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

VFR conditions are expected through most of the taf valid period
with most of the clouds aoa 10k feet, except for perhaps around
KATY where lower VFR cigs may sneak in toward evening.


SD...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ267-268.



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