Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231942
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
242 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Forecast challenge this afternoon is the convective potential
across the James valley and east into Minnesota. Morning convection
has left us with a very humid environment with several outflow
boundaries, meanwhile a front has now cleared KPIR/KMBG and is
headed east. This, combined with an increasingly unstable atmosphere
will provide the impetus for convection this afternoon. The
environment ahead of the front/surface low is primed for storms,
with MLCAPE values expected to approach 3500 j/kg and some turning
in the low level hodographs, with 0-6km shear around 40kts. Winds
above the boundary layer are mainly unidirectional out of the
west/southwest. The decent storm motion may be countered by the
orientation of the front and we have seen in earlier convection
across south central North Dakota a propensity to line out and train
before being undercut by the front/cold pool. Also of note is the
high freezing levels > 14kft, so storms will need to be fairly tall
to generate severe hail much like yesterday. The movement of the
front should clear out the risk for storms across the James valley
by mid afternoon with the rest of the CWA dry during the evening
hours. This thinking follows many of the CAM solutions which show
convection in the afternoon becoming a line of storms as they head
towards I29.

The remainder of the short term features high pressure overhead with
a lower humidity airmass. We could see some mid level warm advection
convection return to the CWA Tuesday morning as 850mb increase to +9
to +14C.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Zonal flow is expected across the region with the flow becoming
northwest by the end of the week and into the weekend as a high
pressure ridge builds up across the Pacific Northwest. One short
wave trough after another will move across the region bringing
several rounds of showers and storms from Tuesday through Saturday.
Temperatures through the period should be near to slightly below
normal with highs mostly in the 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Thunderstorms will be developing along a cold front moving across
the eastern part of the region this afternoon/early evening. These
are expected to affect or be in the vicinity of ABR and ATY as they
move east. Otherwise, vfr conditions are expected at all locations
through tonight and Sunday morning except for in thunderstorms.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr


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