Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261804 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1204 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS THE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING. REGARDLESS...WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE AT OR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
HEADLINE STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE.

THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER. PERSISTED WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON NONETHELESS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW WINDS
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 20S AND
30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

PACIFIC AND CANADIAN AIR WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR LATE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL BE BISECTING THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. A PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING INTO MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
MOVE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BRINGING IN
WARMER AIR. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S. WITH A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH A GOOD MIXING
LAYER...IT SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ON MONDAY. THE MODELS
THEN SHOW WITH SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING...A COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON WHEN THIS
MOVES THROUGH AND CAA KICKS IN...TUESDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 20S. ARCTIC AIR THEN PUSHES IN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ON WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO APPEARS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME WINDY ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL ALSO BE DRY
WITH SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST COMING OVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE KPIR AREA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW TO PERHAPS SCT CIGS AROUND 3000 FT
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SKC CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT






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