Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KABR 240919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
419 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Watching a decent looking shortwave move eastward into western SD,
with a fairly expansive area of showers and storms over UNR`s CWA.
Hi-res models picking up on this somewhat and pushes this activity
eastward across the CWA through the day. This is a bit of a change
from 24 hours ago. This could keep temps down a touch as well,
mainly over the northern James valley region where models are
showing scattered showers and clouds around mid-day into the
afternoon. Shaved just a few degrees off highs, but still expect
temps to get fairly warm. Over the western CWA it`s still looking
pretty hot as this shortwave will be east of the area by afternoon
as strong warm air advection and very warm 850mb temps move in.
Still forecasting highs in the low 100s over the southwest CWA, thus
prompting a Heat Advisory as heat indices are also in that range.
The southwest CWA also butts up against Red Flag criteria today, so
looking at very high fire danger in that region.

Tuesday continues to look hot, but a frontal boundary will be
sagging southward over the area through the day. Still expecting the
atmosphere to become unstable during the afternoon hours, with a bit
of shear developing as well - although the best shear is further
north. Severe parameters continue to support strong to severe storm
potential over eastern SD into MN Tuesday afternoon and evening, but
would like to see bulk shear values a little higher.

Cooler air moves southward into the region on Wednesday as a surface
high builds in. Rain chances begin to dwindle as a drier and more
stable air mass moves in. After rather hot highs in the 90s on
Tuesday, temps will fall back into the 80s on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A strong mid level ridge will again remain anchored over the south
central/southwest conus through much of the period. Over the
Northern Plains a sfc high will provide for generally dry conditions
and seasonable temperatures to start the period. However, mid level
heights will begin to climb across much of the region by the weekend
as ridging aloft re-asserts itself over the western high plains. The
rising heights/rising mid level temps will likely provide for
capping across the region, thus chances for pcpn at this time look
minimal.  The best chance of rain for the period might be toward the
end of the forecast as a frontal boundary slides into the region.
Temperatures will start the period off near normal but should trend
toward above normal by the weekend or early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Good VFR is expected over all four terminals over the next 24
hours. Also, there could be an isolated or widely scattered shower
or thunderstorm around in the vicinity at KPIR and KMBG in the


SD...Heat Advisory from 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033-045-048.



AVIATION...TDK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.