Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222330 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
530 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

It was yet another day with low stratus clouds and fog. Off and on
visibility restrictions of a mile or less have been stuck mainly
east of a line from ABR to HON. A small area of drizzle located
northeast of the ABR radar at 20Z will continue its southeastern
track. Little to no accumulation is anticipated. With plenty of
low clouds lingering, expect fog to remain across the Sisseton
Hills area into tonight. Another area of mainly patchy fog may
develop to our west, and sneak into the MO River Valley. The sfc
ridge across our area, extending from WY and eastern MT, will
remain in place through Monday morning. This will by while the
main area of high pressure shifts across eastern NE/KS. This ridge
focusing more over our eastern counties should help scour out at
least some of the lower clouds and fog over our east. Will see
WAA snow starting across north central SD Monday afternoon. Snow
accumulations should be less than 1/2 inch through the end of the

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

An active early part of the forecast is taking shape. A decent
system will move out of the southwest CONUS and across the
central plains Tuesday through Wednesday. It still appears that
the best chance for heavy snow will be over about the southern
half of the state. This is the area where trowal formation and jet
energy aloft suggests the highest UVM/moisture combination. The
ECMWF, and to a smaller degree the CMC, continue to highlight
this area, where as the deterministic GFS continues to be on the
north end of the 3 solutions. GEFS probabilities of greater than
0.25 inches of QPF seems to agree more with the ECMWF and suggests
an I90 axis of heaviest QPF/snow on Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Am not quite reaching warning criteria with snow amounts, but
after discussion with adjacent offices, and still some concern
about confidence in the track of the system, did feel it was
prudent to issue a watch with the afternoon package for the south
central counties. Also, did beef up winds a bit for Tuesday and
thus kept some blsn in the grids.

Once this system moves on, the rest of the period looks pretty
tranquil as the long wave pattern undergoes major amplification,
featuring a developing west coast mid level ridge, and downstream
central/eastern CONUS trof. Temperatures should favor near normal
early in the period, but then transition back toward above normal
by next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

IFR/MVFR cigs will remain over all but the far southwestern CWA
tonight, with some lifting of the cigs expected from west to east
during the day Monday. Vsbys may fall to MVFR levels as patchy fog
develops again overnight, but will return to VFR levels on Monday.


SD...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday
     night for SDZ033>037-045-048-051.



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