Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260823
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
323 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

The sfc high overhead early this morning will exit across southern
MN today, with a ridge lingering across west central MN and
northeastern SD. Southwesterly flow will remain at 500MB, ahead of the
main trough that will push into the western Dakotas late tonight,
and swing over the eastern Dakotas Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will again hover around 70 degrees, coolest over north
central SD where mid to upper 70s will be possible. While some
thunderstorms will be possible, do not expect any severe storms with
the best instability staying either well to our south or across
western SD.

Temperatures will return to near seasonal values Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms should linger across the eastern half of
the forecast area during the day.

Sunday will be marked by temperatures returning to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal, topping out in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Minimum RH
values could fall below 20 percent west river and especially
southwest of PIR. Southerly winds could become a concern during the
afternoon hours, but at this point the strongest winds should stay
over the James River Valley and east, with 20-25kt winds possibly
mixing down by 21Z.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Zonal flow aloft will give way to a building ridge on Monday. The
ridge will remain over the Plains through the week. At the sfc, weak
low pressure will persist through the extended. For the most part,
the region will remain dry. However, there are brief periods when
the low or llj ahead of the low will intensify and could generate
some showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is low on the timing of
these precip bursts since the models are not in agreement. At this
time, Thursday night appears to be the best bet across the east for
seeing some precip.

Temperatures under the ridge will rise to above average with highs
in the 80s to lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and into early
Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
far western CWA Friday morning, then will spread eastward across the
central and eastern CWA during the afternoon and evening hours.
Brief periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible with the
thunderstorms.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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