Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 131728 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD SPELL WILL COMMENCE DURING THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL SLIDE S-SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS SHOWING TEMPS
AT 850 MB/700 MB/500 MB RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THUS IT SHOULD COME AS NO SURPRISE THE
REGION IS LOOKING AT RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ON
MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RECORD TO
NEAR RECORD LOWS TUESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH KPIR AND
KMBG WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING RECORD LOWS.

WITH A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 MONDAY AFTERNOON IS THE ONLY TIME PERIOD
FOR PCPN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS COOLER TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN MOVING A LOW OFF THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND...BUT JUST HOW
LIKELY POPS WILL BE OVER THIS CWA IS NOT AS CLEAR. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE
ECMWF BUILDS IN ANOTHER SFC HIGH.





&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VRF CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL DROP AS
WE RETAIN VFR CIGS/VISBY TONIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...A POCKET OF
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF KABR/NORTH OF KATY.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.