Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 162020
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
320 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

The low pressure system that brought showers and thunderstorms to
the region earlier today continues to push northeast and away from
the area, while another is currently intensifying over Colorado.
This second low will begin to push northeastward tonight and
Wednesday, reaching the eastern Nebraska/western Iowa area by late
Wednesday afternoon. This will become the next precipitation maker
for our area, with rain expected to reach parts of the southern CWA
late tonight, then overspread mainly the eastern half of the CWA on
Wednesday. Instability will be minimal, so not expecting any
thunder, just rain at this time. Highest amounts look to be along
and south of Interstate 90, where three quarters to one inch are
possible, and along Interstate 29, where three quarters to an inch
and a half are possible. The remainder of the area looks to
generally see one half inch or less. Abundant cloud cover and
potential precipitation will aid in keeping temperatures a bit cool
on Wednesday as well.

Low temperatures tonight will be mainly in the 50s, with daytime
highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Low pressure will be moving across IA/MN and into Wisconsin
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. This system will be
spreading rainfall across the eastern CWA during this time. POPs
have been adjusted to categorical across the far east due to great
model agreement over that area.

Thursday into Thursday night appears to be a break between systems
with mostly dry conditions expected. Although during this time
temperatures will be quite interesting as it appears lows will drop
into the 30s across northern areas Thursday night/Friday morning.
It appears that the least cloud cover and lightest winds will be
across the northern CWA so kept temps cooler there, and also
tanked ABR a few more degrees colder than SuperBlend. Temps
sneaking into the mid 30s gave some patchy frost potential so
inserted that into the grids as well. Perhaps consideration of a
headline in the coming days? Something to keep an eye on anyway.

Next system quickly moves in on Friday as low pressure approaches
from the south. Surface low moves northeast across the plains
through Saturday, with precipitation potential once again spreading
northward into the CWA. Upper level low pressure will be right over
the Dakotas as well by Saturday. Did not make many changes to
SuperBlend POPs for this system.

As for temperatures, overall the extended period looks cool,
especially early on with only 50s and low 60s expected for highs
Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures moderate by Sunday and into
early next week as readings get back to normal values.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and
this evening. The exception will be across the far northwestern
CWA early this afternoon where an area of light rain showers and
MVFR cigs will move through. A low pressure system will approach
later tonight, bringing IFR/MVFR cigs to the CWA, along with areas
MVFR vsbys in rain. The low clouds and precipitation will then
occur through the end of the TAF period.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Parkin



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