Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 152350 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
550 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Issued at 550 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Left a mention of flurries in for far northeast SD and west central
MN tonight. Weak sfc low pressure will drop down from Canada
tonight, but most of the associated energy and precip is expected to
stay north and east over ND and MN.

Sfc low pressure in the four corners region will stretch a warm
front across the central plains Fri night and Sat. This feature will
interact with older air and shortwaves from an upper trough dipping
into the Rockies and will manage to squeeze some light precip into
south central SD on Saturday. Models have backed off on intensity
and eastern extent of any precip. Current forecast keeps a mix of
very light rain and snow mainly from Pierre south.

Even with the cold air advection on Saturday, highs will still climb
into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Kept tonight`s lows in the 20s and
30s due to lingering clouds and warmer air aloft ahead of the trough
and CAA.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Still looking at potential for some light snow across the southwest
CWA Saturday night, with accums less than an inch. Did not make any
changes to inherited POPs, with higher chances highlighted over the
far southwest corner and further into southwest SD.

Much of the extended will continue to feature mild temperatures,
with the warmest day appearing to be on Monday as a surge of mild
air moves northward ahead of a passing frontal boundary. Highs
Sunday through Wednesday will remain in the 30s and 40s, with the
southwest CWA approaching 50 degrees on Monday. Models still
indicating a pattern change by the end of the week, with much colder
air beginning to let loose and blast southward across the northern
plains. Did not make much in the way of changes to inherited grids
for the end of the week, as they already feature highs being knocked
back down into the teens and 20s, along with light snow chances as
the colder air mass moves in. If timing changes little in regards to
the arrival of the cold air mass, Thursday is setting up to be a
rather windy day as well, which will create low wind chills in the
single digits above and below zero.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Mainly VFR clouds are expected at all locations through tonight and
Saturday. There may be some MVFR ceilings for a time at MBG, ABR,
and ATY on Saturday.




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