Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 200525 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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