Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 280853
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT RESULTING IN
BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER...MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...AND LIGHTER QPF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO THE
QUARTER/HALF INCH RANGE THOUGH GFS OMEGA VALUES TOPPING 20
MICROBARS SUGGEST A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S...AND IF WE CAN GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT STILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEAK TROF WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HOWEVER
GFS PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK LIFT AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE
SATURATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN THE LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
WORKING THROUGH...AND THEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR AT KMBG/KABR AS STRATUS MOVES
BACK IN AROUND 9Z. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND KPIR
AFTER THE SHOWERS END DROPPING VSBY TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z.
WITH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT KATY WHEN CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. ALL OTHER
SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR BY THEN.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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