Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 220532 AAE
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

CANCELED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH A LITTLE EARLY AS ALL
STORMS HAVE NOW EXITED THIS CWA.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STRONG CAP/WARM AIR ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING EVERYTHING
BACK SO FAR ACROSS OUR CWA WITH ALL OF THE STORMS CONFINED TO
ND. WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN NC SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON HEADING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY MIDNIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR REGION...WILL CONTINUE WITH STORM
CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA STILL HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS THIS EVENING.
IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.
OTHERWISE...GOOD CAA IN THE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FOR TUESDAY AND THEN
BUILD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. SHOULD END UP WITH SOME UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR
THE EASTERN CWA FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WAA AND SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BRING BACK
CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE 12Z
GFS AND MODEL GUIDANCE FROM ALLBLEND. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
UNAVAILABLE FOR THE FORECAST.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH WAA
SPREADING INTO THE AREA. FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG WITH
A WEAK H7 S/W COULD RESULT IN CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER S/W AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE AND 30-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR COULD RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BEHIND THE LOW HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SWITCHING AROUND TO THE EAST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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