Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 160059 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
759 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES BUT DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST CWA JUST IN CASE WE DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT COOLER
VALLEY TEMPERATURES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS TODAY. A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE REGION IS
KEEPING CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING A WARMING TREND. H85
TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM CURRENT SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN CWA. AT THE SFC THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. ON
WEDNESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DRAW UP SOME MOISTER AIR ON SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SO THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY COULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED DUE TO A WEAK
S/W CROSSING THE REGION. A STRONGER S/W CROSSING THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN FOR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PCPN
AFFECTING EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER ALLBLEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BRING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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