Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 200549 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1249 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 910 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Some weak returns showing up on radar, mainly in southern ND late
this evening. Still expect newer development to move into north
central SD tonight. Therefore, left pops as is for tonight. Rest
of forecast also looked good.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

With mostly sunny skies and good mixing winds this afternoon, temps
have managed to warm nicely. Readings have pushed into the the lower
70s over parts of central SD, with mid 60s as far east as Aberdeen.
Clouds will begin to increase during the overnight hours as a weak
system pushes in. This system may bring a few rain showers across
north central SD later this evening, perhaps switching to snow
showers by early Monday morning as colder air works in. This system
is already producing a few showers over southwest and south central
ND, and hi-res models indicate this potential shifting southward
into the evening hours, although coverage and intensity is pretty
scant.

Monday will be much cooler behind the passing cold front. Cool
northeast winds will reinforce the cool air under which should be a
mostly cloudy sky. Highs are expected to only top out in the upper
40s to mid 50s. Monday does look mostly dry, except for what few
rain or snow showers may be lingering over north central SD during
the morning hours. Although, next system will be quickly approaching
from the west with light rain spreading into the western CWA by late
afternoon perhaps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

The long term period opens up with near zonal flow across the region
Monday night. A 100+ kt jet streak will sink south toward the
Dakotas and forcing associated with the entrance region of the jet
along with mid level thermal forcing may be enough to slide an area
of light precipitation across much of the western CWA late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. However this precipitation will be
battling dry surface high pressure sinking in from the north.
Therefore best chances remain across the southwest CWA. Ptype
appears to start as rain, then transition to snow late Monday into
Tuesday morning. Up to an inch of snow is possible along the I90
corridor.

A transition in the upper level pattern will occur as a west coast
ridge shifts eastward over the central US by mid week. The surface
high will also shift east and return flow warm air advection spreads
over the CWA. A weak wave of energy will top the ridge on Wednesday
and bring additional rain/snow chances to the forecast. Conditions
also look breezy under a tight surface pressure gradient.

Models are then in fairly good agreement of a potent closed low
system tracking into the central plains states by the end of the
work week. While the details are still fuzzy, models suggest gulf
moisture will be pulled into this system, and even blended guidance
produced likely POPs in the Thursday/Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Monday as mid and high level clouds move over. Otherwise, there is
expected to be some p6sm light rain showers at or in the vicinity of
MBG and ABR tonight into early Monday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Dorn



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