Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
354 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

The threat for severe storms this evening through tonight will be
the main forecast concern.

A shortwave currently over northern Utah will continue tracking
towards the Northern Plains tonight. This shortwave will help
advance a surface cold front/dry line across the Dakotas tonight.
Plenty of instability and 0-6 km bulk shear will be located with
this front with strong to severe storms possible....more so for
counties along and west of the Missouri River. If individual
supercells can develop late this afternoon...then tornadoes could be
possible in south central South Dakota where slightly better 0-1 km
bulk shear will be located. That said...most CAMS suggest clusters
of storm to severe storms will be the likely scenario with large
hail and damaging winds the main threat. As storms track eastward
overnight...a strenthening LLJ should help maintain a wind and large
hail. Also...with high PWATS tonight...along with the possiblity for
training storms...locally heavy rainfall will possible tonight as
well. Thankfully flash flood guidance is fairly high due to the
recent dry weather.

Most of the convection should diminish toward Monday morning in the
eastern CWA with dry conditions possible around midday. With the
front stalling along I-29...additional thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon hours. The threat for severe storms
looks unlikely.

Tuesday looks mostly dry until the late afternoon hours. This is
when another shortwave will cross the region with showers and
thunderstorms possible Tuesday night for most areas. Severe storms
are not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

An active pattern is expected for the long term. Broad southwest mid
level flow will keep a storm track directed at the Central/Northern
Plains for much of the time period. The period with the greatest
potential for decent/widespread rain and thunder will be late
Tuesday night and Wednesday as a strong wave propagates across the
cwa. After that...forecast details become a little muddy.  With a
frontal boundary splayed out south of the region...there will be
continued chances for pcpn most periods.  Confidence in timing...etc
is low at this point. temperatures are expected to average out near
normal for the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

A mix of vfr/vfr conditions are expected through the rest of
today and tonight as a front moves east over the region. Sct
shra/tsra are expected to form again over western SD this
afternoon and evening then move east overnight. Gusty winds and
low vsby can be expected with thunderstorms.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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