Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 190838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND ARE APPROACHING THE JAMES VALLEY. INTENSITY IS
WEAKENING THOUGH AS EVERYTHING MOVES EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL ISSUE PRE
FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES UP THROUGH
12Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION BUT
MODELS REALLY DONT SHOW ANYTHING FOR PRECIP ANYMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONFINE POPS TO JUST THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOK
FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORED WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT.
ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OFF THE ROCKIES. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP PULL UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECK OF IFR
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ON FRIDAY
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WESTERLY AND HELPS USHER OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.