Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 010608 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
108 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
POTENT SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER WYOMING. AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...OMEGA AND UPPER JET MAX HELPING TO MAINTAIN BAND OF
RAINFALL THAT HAS TREKKED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NORTHEAST SD
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING POPS FOR THIS
BAND OF RAIN AS IT APPEARS IT WILL SURVIVE MOST IF NOT ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE CWA. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS QUITE NICELY.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. ONLY QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP. SOME MODELS GREATER THAN OTHERS...WITH THE HRRR
PARTICULARLY DRY AND SORT OF THE OUTLIER. MOST OTHER MODELS HAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SD TONIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND LINGERED THEM A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NSSL WRF STILL SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER
SOUTHEAST SD AT 09Z TONIGHT.

A WEAKER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL
PROVIDE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS. AREAL COVERAGE DOES
NOT APPEAR IT WILL QUITE MATCH UP TO WHATS MOVING INTO WESTERN SD
RIGHT NOW...BUT WORTHY OF 20/30 POPS NONETHELESS. AGAIN A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS IN THE AREA. 500
MB HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
MOST AREAS.




.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AS FAIRLY
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DO SUGGEST
CAPPING MIGHT FORCE MOST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS POPS
NO HIGHER THAN CHC NEEDED AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE FRONT IT LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVES
DOMINANT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WILL TAKE
THE VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THESE MAY AFFECT ABR AND ATY.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
...EXPECT MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN. SOME OF THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INSERTED
SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL MOVE ON TO
THE EAST MONDAY EVENING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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