Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 212039
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP! FOR TNT A FEW EARLY
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS EVENING. OUT WEST WEAK RETURN FLOW
AND DEVELOPING LLJ COULD FUEL SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT GETS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN CONTINUES EAST OF THE MO RIVER. NOT
SURE ABOUT THE EASTERN CWA AND WILL LEAVE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT
SINCE MIXED LAYER CAPES LOOK PRETTY LOW AND THERE ISNT MUCH
FORCING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MAJOR WAVE LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE PER PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE WAA
PATTERN/PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND THAT MAY LIMIT ANY
POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME AMOUNTS. FFG IS STILL APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR MOST AREAS SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PATCHY OVER THE
LAST WEEK OR SO. FOR NOW NO HEADLINES NEEDED BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED. TO GIVE A HEADS UP I HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY IN
ITSELF COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. THE FAR EASTERN CWA MAY BE
UNDER THE GUN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SVR WEATHER IF THE
MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT QUICK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY. THE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT FOR NOW AM NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND AGREE
WELL WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST AFFECTING OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER WYOMING/MONTANA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...DRYING OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY. THEN THE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THIS MAY
END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND MAY HAVE
TO ADJUST POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH DRYING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
THURSDAY MAY ALSO END UP BEING DRY WITH THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. SOME 80S MAY OCCUR OUT WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MIXING LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT ABR AND ATY. THEY COULD BE MVFR FOR A TIME
EARLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATE AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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