Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221129 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
629 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Narrow band of moderate intensity snow moving across the
Pierre/Chamberlain areas will continue east/northeast through the
morning into the afternoon. There is a second band set back by about
100 miles, but thus far CAMs have failed to catch onto this feature.
Either way, moisture moving across the area should be minimal with
less than an inch accumulation.

Milder air will move in behind this warm front today. Additionally,
a 20mb gradient will exist across the state today, with pressure
falls of 7 to 9mb. The result will be a south wind close to
advisory criteria. Fire danger will be elevated with these winds,
despite temperatures only in the 50-60F degree range for highs.

Focus shifts to precipitation Thursday/Friday. General trends have
been to adjust the storm track southwards. We will still see a vort
eject out ahead of the main upper low, with favorable placement of
the right entrance region of a 100kt jet streak. NAM BUFKIT profiles
suggest steep lapse rates above the warm layer - possibly elevated
convection. Otherwise dry/cool northerly flow develops for Friday -
and the best chance for precipitation shifts to along and south of
the CWA border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

When the period opens Friday night, a large upper low circulation is
meandering around over the center of the CONUS, but this cwa should
be dry, with any lingering precipitation chances over the far
southeastern forecast zones dwindling rapidly. Compared to
yesterday, model qpf output is notably less over this cwa late in
the out periods despite a similar upper level flow pattern
evolution from a general lack of upper level steering winds to
more of a southwesterly flow. What does seem to end up resulting
in these types of patterns is late night fog formation. Will have
to keep that under consideration heading into this weekend. Not
much change in the low level thermal progs over the weekend and
into early next week. Ensemble and deterministic low level thermal
progs generally supporting temperatures near to as much as one
standard deviation above climo normal for late March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR to occasionally MVFR conditions will prevail across the area
today through tonight. Scattered snow showers have developed and
are slowly working their way across central into east central
South Dakota. Look for southeasterly winds to increase into the
20 to 35 knot range today and continue into the evening hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn



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