Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 102329 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
529 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

Temps are still stuck in the single digits for many areas this
afternoon, especially over central SD where there is a fresh snow
pack which has started to pile up a bit in spots. Lows tonight are
very tricky and unfortunately have low confidence in the numbers.
Decided to drop lows quite a few degrees from previous forecast
given how cold we are currently. We will see mostly clear skies for
a good portion of the night with winds generally 5 to 10 MPH.
Higher winds will be had in elevated areas and especially in the
Coteau region. Also, we do have weak warm air advection overnight
but winds are still somewhat light - valley areas will see colder
temps compared to surrounding areas, so have tanked ABR`s temp.
Plus, with the fresh snow over central SD, they should be able to
drop rather nicely. Rather difficult to balance all these
variables tonight to come up with a confident low temp forecast.
For tonight`s winds, continued to follow hi-res guidance for the
Coteau/downslope region.

For Sunday, very weak wave slides southeast across the Dakotas and a
few models are hinting at some light snow sliding southeast into
northern SD. Have included small POPs for this.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

The overall pattern over the conus is starting to change a bit over
the long term. Mid level heights will, generally speaking, be on the
rise as Gulf of Mexico ridge amplifies.  However, west to northwest
flow aloft will continue over the Northern Plains for the most part.
Those rising heights will combine with low level
southerly/southwesterly breezes and help advect a milder airmass
across much of the region Wednesday, with above normal
temperatures expected. But that mild airmass gets replaced by
another cold push come Thursday night and Friday. As for pcpn
chances, probably the main opportunity for any measurable snow
will come either Monday night into Tuesday, or Thursday night into
Friday. That said, both pcpn events look to be light as moisture
availability isn`t all that great.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Sunday.




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