000
FXUS63 KABR 130530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY.
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE H85 TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID 20S.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. AS THIS
SYSTEM IS SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...THERE IS LITTLE REASON
TO BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER DOING DEWPOINT FORECASTS. HAVE UNDER CUT SOME OF THE LOWEST
PROGS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES TO REACH MORE REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON MONDAY.

THE SAME THEORY HOLDS FOR THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY WILL ALSO CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE 25 MPH GUSTS WILL REACH...SO
AREAS SOUTH OF PIERRE MAY BE LESS OF A CONCERN ON MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY WITH 25 TO 40 KTS ALOFT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND EXPLOSIVE FIRE CONDITIONS...EVEN WITH
RH POTENTIALLY RISING THROUGH THE DAY.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY. MID SHIFT
CAN FINE TUNE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO CARRY A WARNING.
BELIEVE A HEADLINE WILL ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY...POSSIBLY
AS FAR EAST AS WEST CENTRAL MN.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE GETTING MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TO START THINGS OFF ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. BY
THURSDAY UPPER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH RIPPLES OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVING THROUGH AND A SURFACE
WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
SEVERAL PERIODS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD AT THIS POINT
SHOWING UP FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF
THESE WAVES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS TO
STAY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-PRAIRIE COTEAU-
     UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN