Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 170531
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW...

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN NORTHEAST SD. HAVE IN GOOD CHANCES ACROSS THIS
REGION...DIMINISHING LATE. OTHERWISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW SFC LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN
AND EASTERN ND. THIS FRONT HAS SHIFTED SWD DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SD HAS DRIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST. AT THE SFC...A CONVERGENT ZONE NOTED ON THE WIND FIELDS HAS
REMAINED WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND THE HERREID
AND EUREKA AREA SWD TOWARD THE HYDE AND HAND COUNTY AREA. SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND HAVE ALSO MOVED EVER SO SLIGHTLY EWD WITH
TIME. THESE HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVING NATURE AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
IN PLACE.

WE ARE EXPECTING THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD TWD THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM CAM MODEL
SOLUTIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME OF THIS
CONVECTION TONIGHT. IT MAY MAKE IT TO THE JAMES VALLEY AND
DIMINISH OR HOLD TOGETHER AND REORGANIZE AND COMBINE WITH A
STRONGER WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM ND LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH
THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY. ISSUED AN SPS EARLIER TODAY
TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THRU THE EARLY MRNG HOURS
ON SUNDAY FOR THE NERN CWA SO ADDED MENTION OF THIS IN THE GRIDS.

PCPN MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES TO START SUNDAY
WHILE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SEE A DRY BREAK. HOWEVER POPS
INCREASE AGAIN WITH TIME DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD FROM ND. HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD ONTO
PCPN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THIS
WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.









.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOW UP BY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CONSENSUS FROM DETERMINISTIC MODELS FADES AWAY. THE
12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE REGION COULD BE IN FOR QUITE A
BIT OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
12Z GFS IS A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT IN HOW IT HANDLES THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ALLBLEND POPS HIGHLIGHT THESE TWO POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN THE 70S
AND 80S FOR HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/MVFR
FOG ALONG WITH STRATUS CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS. THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...VIPOND
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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