Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 151728 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

A FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING. KATY AREA IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE ICE
THAN WAS ANTICIPATED SO NEEDED TO UPGRADE TO FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY THAT AREA. MEANWHILE THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN HAS
PRETTY MUCH ENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA SO LET ADVISORY EXPIRE
FOR THAT AREA. REST OF FORECAST OKAY FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY
ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS AIR MASS IS
STILL CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY MID
LEVELS. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER AS WELL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. REPORTS OF VERY SLIPPERY ROADS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS ONE ACCIDENT THUS FAR. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA NOT COVERED IN THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY. EXPECTING SEVERAL TRAVEL ISSUES LATER THIS
MORNING WITH ROADS VERY SLICK AT THIS TIME. IN REGARDS TO THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH...DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO KNOCKED AN INCH OR TWO OFF ACCUMS
IN MOST AREAS.

STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A HUGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS WELL INTO CANADA. DO NOT SEE THIS GOING
AWAY ANYTIME SOON AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO
TONIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS WELL...SO THIS
COMBINED WITH THE CLOUDS LED TO AN INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OVER OUR REGION
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT ONLY WEAK
SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK WITH NOT
MUCH FOR WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY...PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY /AND WILL REMAIN/ SNOW FOR THE
KMBG/KPIR/KATY TAF SITES. KPIR VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOULD END IN THE KPIR
AREA AROUND 22Z. FOR KATY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW...ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE 19Z-20Z TIME FRAME. SNOW
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT KATY AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS
THAN A MILE. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF...ESTIMATED TO END BY
00Z. AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
OR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-DAY-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.