Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 191725 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED IN THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
ABLE TO MAKE IT UP INTO JONES AND LYMAN COUNTY BY 5 PM CDT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
THIS MORNING. A LAYER OF STRATUS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME
AREAS...BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA. FOR
NOW LEFT THE HEADLINE IN PLACE...BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO SEE IF IT CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY.

TODAY...ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...COLLIDING WITH ANOTHER
AIRMASS SLIDING OUT OF CANADA. A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC BAND SETS UP
BETWEEN THE TWO...AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF US HWY 14 LATER
TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DO DISPLAY A WARMING
TREND HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE
HIGH GETS PUSHED EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITH
THE GFS PUSHING A WEAKER LOW STRAIGHT NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...WHILE THE ECMWF WRAPS UP A TIGHT LOW AND TRACKS IT
NORTHEAST OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IOWA AND MINNESOTA.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LESSER
AMOUNTS. SOME INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREFORE...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON...WILL KEEP
SCHC/CHC POPS GOING FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. RAIN MAY MAKE IT
INTO KPIR TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT AROUND TO MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...CONNELLY


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