Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 130202 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
902 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

No major changes anticipated overnight. Forecast looks on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Breezy southerly winds will slowly diminish this evening as
dry high pressure builds in behind the cold front that`s currently
west of a line from Aberdeen to Redfield. This boundary will shift
east of our MN counties shortly after 03Z Friday, as high pressure
moves into the western half of the state. Expect this area of high
pressure to be directly overhead by 15Z Friday. 50s to right around
60F still look reasonable for highs Friday. Did increase winds near
and west of the Missouri River Friday afternoon, as the sfc high
exits east and the pressure gradient increases between it and low
pressure nearing from far eastern WY/MT. RH values do fall to 25-35
percent Friday afternoon, and winds hover just below 15kts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Models all agree very well in the long term with the upper level
flow over our region along with the short waves moving through. On
Friday night, the only significant short wave trough to affect our
region during the long term will be over the Pacific Northwest. This
will traverse southeast across the Rockies and then east across our
region through Saturday night. Therefore, expect showers to spread
in from the southwest later Friday night/early Saturday. Most of the
CWA will have high chance/likely rain showers Saturday into Saturday
night. Due to the quickness of the system along with the moisture
available and lift, expect rainfall amounts generally at a quarter
inch or less. Otherwise, the models show upper level ridging over
the western U.S. moving east through the middle of next week with
troughing moving into the west coast by Thursday. There will be some
quick moving short wave troughs slide mainly to the north of our
region from Sunday through Thursday and are not expected to have
much influence on our region with clouds or rainfall.

Mild Pacific air will be dominating the weather across our region
through the long term. After a cooler than normal Saturday with the
rain and clouds, temperatures will be warming up from Sunday into
Monday and remaining through the week. Highs at 5 to 10 degrees
below normal on Saturday in the 50s are expected to warm to 5 to 10
degrees above normal into the 60s and lower 70s for Monday through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period, with the wind
gradually dropping off this evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK



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