Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 202121
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
321 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Low RH across the region this afternoon over central SD into the
James River valley, with readings mainly from 15 to 25 percent.
Winds have been gusting over 25 mph as well so it was decided
earlier this afternoon to issue a short-lived Red Flag Warning up
until 23Z to highlight the critical or near-critical fire weather
conditions. Temperatures have warmed up nicely too as the cirrus has
thinned out much of the afternoon. All areas are well into the 50s
and 60s with several sites warming a few degrees warmer than
forecast.

This will all come to an end tonight though when the potent cold
front moves south through the area. 925mb temps go from the teens
above zero Celsius at 00Z this evening to as cold as the teens below
zero Celsius by 12Z Tuesday. Winds will stay breezy and gusty
overnight as well as the push of cold air moves in. Lows look to
drop into the teens for most areas, but they will only rise into the
20s on Tuesday as the cold air mass moves into place. Winds will
stay breezy and gusty, especially for eastern areas. Although, we
will see winds slowly subside during the afternoon and evening hours
as the surface high begins moving in. Even though we remain breezy
on Tuesday, the colder air mass and overall higher humidity will
make fire danger less of a concern compared to what we had today.

Will have to watch potential for stratus across eastern areas by
early Tuesday morning. Models vary quite a bit in just how far
southwest into the CWA we`ll see the stratus, and to what degree of
areal coverage.

As for precipitation, the weak wave sliding southeast across
southwest SD tonight looks to stay out of our CWA. For now we only
have slight chance POPs across the far southwest CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

We have much better confidence today that the next several days
will remain dry. We will also continue to see quite the variation in
temperatures over the next few days as well. Wednesday morning will
see high pressure ride down the axis of the plains states. We will
see return flow towards morning with some high clouds across the
west but it looks like for the most part the area will experience
ideal radiational conditions. With highs the previous day only into
the 20s, it shoudn`t shock anyone when we fall into the single
digits.

The "Arctic" front wobbles over the area Wednesday into Thursday
associated with the wave to the north. The feature that was
originally going to generate some light QPF is now likely to be
limited to just another area of mid/high clouds passing across the
Dakotas/Minnesota. A surge of warmer air is noted for Friday,
however the timing continues to shift as to when the core of warmest
air is overhead. Guidance timing in now leading towards the morning
hours with frontal passage from morning to early afternoon. This
will enhance mixing however and temperatures at 925mb only cool by
about 4C. Originally it looked like there was the potential for
records to be set but now its a little more uncertain on how warm we
can archive. Continued to add a few degrees over blended guidance.
Additionally, GFS mixed winds are quite strong (well over 40kts).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and into the majority
of the overnight hours, with passing mid and high level clouds. By
early morning Tuesday, we could see some MVFR CIGs sliding south
into KABR and KATY. Tough at this point to determine areal
coverage and just how far southwest these CIGs progress, so for
now have included a SCT mention for MVFR. Will take another look
at 00Z TAFs for possible increase in cloud coverage for KABR and
KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST /4 PM MST/ this afternoon for
     SDZ267>270.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TMT


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