Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1124 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING CWA WIDE.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS MATCH WELL WITH
GOING FORECAST AND LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE NAM/HRRR...THUS NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH THIS CWA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS STORM
WILL RESULT IN RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL SEE MIXED
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID THE GFS IS SHOWING A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA BY 18Z. BASED ON HI-
RES MODELS...THIS COLD PUSH IS AT LEAST 6 HOURS TOO SOON. RELIED
UPON THE HI-RES ARW AND THE RAPID REFRESH FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW TIME PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS BEST BETWEEN 0-3Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WRAP PCPN INTO THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS LIKELY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION.

WITH FRESH SNOW COVER...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE
EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS AND WAA TO
DEVELOP. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A DOWN-SLOPE WIND EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH COULD BE POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S...TO THE MID 50S. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA SURPASSES THE 60 DEGREE MARK AS 925 MB TEMPS EXCEED 10C.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN COMPLIMENTARY ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
EVOLUTION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR REX BLOCK AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE FORECAST DOES CHANGE AS UPPER LOW OFF BAHA GETS PICKED UP
AND THRUST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RIDGE WEST AND TROF EAST
REMAINS IN PLACE. BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN
RETROGRADES A BIT...AND THAT ALLOWS FOR A CHUNK OF COLD AIR TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE IN BETWEEN PERIODS LOOK
TO CONTINUE THE RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS TO THEN WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTH...ALONG WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE EAST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR CORSON-
     DEWEY-JONES-STANLEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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