Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 192342 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the short term. A narrow
corridor of 500 J/KG of surface base CAPE, along with weak upper
level support will produce isolated showers through this evening.
The far northeast portion of the CWA has the best potential of
seeing pcpn. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible
between 10pm and 2 am in our far NE portion of the CWA. Models shows
a shortwave tracking southeastward across the are during that time
period. With limited instability, severe storms are not expected.
However gusty winds are possible.

The combination of upper level ridging and surface high pressure
will bring dry conditions on Tuesday. Cool temperatures will continue
in the eastern CWA with highs in the lower 70s. In the west,
increasing southerly winds will produce highs in the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The extended period starts off with the region between an upper
level trough to the east and ridging to the west. By midday
Wednesday, the flow becomes nearly zonal over the region and remains
that way until a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest on
Friday. The trough slowly pushes through Friday and Saturday, with
northwest flow then remaining dominant through the rest of the
period.

At the surface, high pressure will exit the region Tuesday night
with low pressure moving in from the west. This boundary will likely
be the focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon,
mainly across the eastern part of the CWA, where the best
instability and shear set up. Strong to severe storms are certainly
possible. Unsettled conditions will lead to continued precipitation
chances Thursday through Saturday, but should be more in the form of
showers to a few weak thunderstorms. High pressure settles in Sunday
and Monday, bringing a return to dry conditions.

Decent WAA will occur on Wednesday, with high temperatures well into
the 80s. Will then see a gradual cool down with highs in the mid 70s
to lower 80s Thursday, in the lower to mid 70s Friday, and in the
mid to upper 60s Saturday before near normal highs in the 70s return
Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected for all locations through tonight and
Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Mohr



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