Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 131557 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1057 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Issued at 1057 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Other than some waa mid level clouds over north central SD this
morning and some jet stream mid/high level clouds over our far
southeast, skies will be mostly sunny through the afternoon.
Surface high pressure will continue to push east of the region
through the afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to the lower

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Band of mid and upper level clouds continues to race northeast
across the CWA. There have been light echoes on radar, but nothing
more than a few sprinkles likely reaching the ground. North central
SD has been clear all night, and with the surface high overhead,
temps have fallen into the 20s and lower 30s. Been adjusting temps
the past few hours to account for the colder readings early this

For later today, the surface high shifts east into MN, with light
winds during the morning hours. By this afternoon and evening,
southeast winds increase ahead of the approaching low pressure.
Cooler temps will be felt today with the cool surface high moving
through. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Focus will be on Saturday and the rainfall expected across the
region. Models are coming into better agreement now and actually
show really good chances for showers across the CWA. Rainfall
amounts still appear to be generally around a half inch or less, but
chances for precip have been increased even more in the forecast.
The other change to Saturday`s forecast was to increase wind speeds
above SuperBlend, especially in the post-frontal cold air advection
regime. As temps continue to cool Saturday night, there could even
be a few snow showers mixed in with the rain on the back edge of the
precipitation as it departs.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The period opens dry in northwest flow, and ends dry in southwest
flow. In between all that, an upper level ridge builds across the
northern plains, keeping plenty of clear skies and warmer than
normal temperatures around from Sunday night through Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Dry VFR conditions are forecast through Friday night. Rain
chances loom on the horizon, though, for Saturday.




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