Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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122
FXUS63 KABR 030356 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
956 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

RADAR TRENDS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
RETURNS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST OF
DECREASING POPS/WX MENTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST. WILL CONTINUE
CARRYING BLOWING SNOW MENTION WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

WESTWARD MOVING EDGE OF SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY STALLED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THIS TO MOVE BACK EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND DISSIPATE AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES NORTHEAST. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES
TOTAL ARE EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS AT 20 TO 35 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR DEUEL COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING OVER THIS RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH OF A
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THICKNESSES
DONT VARY MUCH AT ALL. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME MID 30S
WEST RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT
WILL MAINLY DRAW SOME MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE PLAINS STATES. A
CLIPPER WILL FOLLOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. DESPITE THE TRACK/INTENSITY VARYING BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS...THE NET EFFECT WILL BE TO ENHANCE MIXING WITH MILD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 850MB READINGS ON THE ORDER OF +2 TO
+4C...SHOULD BE EASY TO MIX TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW HOWEVER...WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST
AIR...AROUND -20C AT 850MB MONDAY AM. WITH COLD ADVECTION/STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A LACK OF SNOW COVER...AND FEBRUARY
SUNSHINE...MODELS SUGGEST STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME THE PREVAILING CONDITION TONIGHT AT
KMBG AND KPIR. KABR AND KATY WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE UP AND DOWN
RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING AND
WHILE 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS /WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS/
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PERIODS OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTION TO BE REINFORCED BY BLOWING SNOW.

LATER WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO KMBG AND KPIR AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ023.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN



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