Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 210538 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1238 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Precipitation beginning to increase in area across the western
part of the state, so things still look on track for it to push
across the southwestern CWA later tonight. No changes made to
winds or temperatures at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

High pressure will drop down from Canada tonight bringing dry and
cool conditions to northeast SD and west central MN. A shortwave
will move through the upper ridge that has squeaked over south
central SD today. This upper level energy will bring light snow to
areas south of Mobridge with up to an inch possible from Pierre
south. Precipitation will exit Tuesday morning until a lee side
trough and another shortwave generate some additional showers across
far south central SD late Tuesday afternoon. Any showers will remain
south of I-90.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 20s under the high, but
hover in the lower 30s under cloud cover from the shortwave in
southern SD.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

At 00Z Wednesday, while troughs will dominate the Pacific coastline,
and the eastern half of the nation, a high amplitude ridge will be
set up from TX through the WY/SD border up through Alberta. May
start off with a few (mainly snow) showers across our southwestern
counties. This area of precipitation may shift to our central zones
by early afternoon. Will not lean as strongly as the GFS with higher
POPs/QPF. Will keep with a more consensus approach, especially as
a large area of sfc high pressure is set up just to our east.
Expect the 500mb ridge to be overhead Wednesday into early
Thursday, before shifting east across MN.

Look for the trough along the Pacific coast Wednesday morning to
cross into the 4-corners area Thursday afternoon while cutting off
from the main flow. The new 500mb low over northern TX to
southwestern NE at daybreak Friday, will gradually slide over MO/IL
by Saturday and into Sunday. This will bring a period of unsettled
weather Thursday through Friday.

The best chance of widespread precip looks to be Thursday into
Thursday evening. Thursday will likely be the warmest day this
period. With WAA in control, and temperatures topping out in the
40s and 50s, it looks like most of the precipitation will be in
the form of rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
overnight through the day Tuesday. The exception will be across the
southwestern CWA late tonight into early Tuesday morning where an
area of MVFR cigs and (possibly IFR) vsbys in light snow is
expected to track through. KPIR will be the only TAF site




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