Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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205
FXUS63 KABR 091740 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1140 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP
TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE ITS STATUS QUO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS THE CWA GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER
AND FLURRIES. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATER TODAY
MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE POCKETS OF SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MICROBARS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  A MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CLOSER TO 4 TO 8 MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PROFILES DO SUPPORT THE LOSS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH SATURATION BELOW
AROUND 700MB...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CWA...ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST RIVER WHICH WILL BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A VERY
LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TRACKING ALONG A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST WITH
WARMER AIR RETURNING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WAA LIGHT
SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WAVE
ITSELF. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD



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