Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 282328 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Issued at 559 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a very distinct shortwave
tracking across western SD/Nebraska. This feature has been
responsible for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of
western and central South Dakota this afternoon. Shower activity is
expected to continue across the western CWA through tonight as well.
Very little in the way of instability, so only anticipating general
run of the mill type of activity.

The broadbrushed non-severe low POP forecast continues through
Friday and Saturday due to a parade of weak shortwaves passing
through a northwest flow aloft. Really hard to pinpoint the timing
and areal coverage of precip and mainly stuck with blended model
solutions in the forecast. As for temperatures, trended toward
cooler guidance due to anticipated cloud cover over the next couple
of days. Regardless, still depicting a gradual warming trend from
70s and 80s Friday to 80 and 90s this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

The period begins with an upper level ridge building into the region
with some WAA thunderstorms possible Sunday morning. After clearing
skies Sunday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms should redevelop
Sunday night as a fairly strong shortwave crosses southern Canada.
While both the GFS and ECMWF bring this shortwave across the region,
they differ on the strength of 700 mb temps and the southern
extent of pcpcn. Based on the latest model guidance, locations
along the ND/SD border will have the best potential of seeing
storms. The upper level ridge will remain over the region with
above normal temperatures likely through Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday, models are showing a strong shortwave crossing the
region with storms possible Wednesday night with much cooler
temperatures on Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

An area of high pressure over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota
will bring vfr conditions and mostly light and variable winds to
the KABR and KATY terminals through the valid TAF period.

KPIR and KMBG are being influenced more by an area of low
pressure over the northern high plains. This low pressure system
is working southeast toward Nebraska and is bringing cloudy skies,
areas of moderate, to at times heavy, rainfall, low end VFR cigs
and IFR/MVFR visbies in the heavier downpours. Conditions should
be improving at KPIR by late evening, while it`s entirely possible
to see showers and isolated thunderstorms developing at/in the
vicinity of KMBG later tonight after 06Z.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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