Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221730 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 83 AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS BAND OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-29 CORRIDOR AFTER 19Z. CLEARING SKIES
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND IS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SUB CLOUD DRY
LAYER. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG...WILL ALSO PROCEED FASTER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO
THE LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THUS...WHILE WE
HAVE SEEN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WILL STICK TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT JET.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS RANGE FROM +17 TO +20C EARLY
THIS AM...BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
TROF. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...SO HIGHS COULD TOP 70 IN THE EAST. WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EFFICIENT MIXING RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ABNORMALLY WARM DAY FRIDAY.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A WESTERN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING LOW NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. SUPERBLEND POPS
ARE IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO
THEM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING SOME VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO ABR AND ATY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
THE WEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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