Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 242316 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
616 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WESTERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS
ARE SPIKING NICELY. 80 DEGREES CURRENTLY IN ABR AND HAVE HAD TO
INCREASE HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. DROPPED
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WELL INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. LONG NIGHTS THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL NICELY. ONLY THING STOPPING THIS WOULD BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVERHEAD...BUT AT THIS
POINT THERE IS NO HARD EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THIS.

MILD TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SUNDAY SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER RATHER WARM DAY AND HAVE RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES. SEEMS LIKE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR REAL GOOD WARMING THAT
RECENT FORECASTS THE PAST WEEK OR TWO HAVE UNDERESTIMATED. VERY
WARM TEMPS AT 850MB ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY MIXING WINDS
TURNING WESTERLY. RH AT 850 MB DOES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH MAY INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER...SO WILL BE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT I
COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BEING EVEN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. MAY NEED TO BUMP UP HIGHS EVEN MORE
FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER OUR REGION MOVING EASTWARD TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A POOR SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
ELONGATED TROUGHING/SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE EAST
OF OUR REGION. THE MODELS DO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES OF ANY RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE LOW FOR OUR CWA
WITH LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION OF ANY LIFTING FORCE FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN AND
ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE
DRY ALSO AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE AIR WITH THIS LOOKS PRETTY COOL AND MAY HAVE TO LOWER
THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 40S FOR HIGHS FOR
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&


$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








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