Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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560
FXUS63 KABR 282014
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Surface low continues to spin over southeastern South
Dakota/northwestern Iowa...with clouds and precipitation wrapping
around it over portions of the CWA. Storms that developed earlier
along a wind shift axis produced a brief landspout near the Bowdle
area. Things have quieted down since then...but parts of the
southern CWA may still be primed into the late afternoon and early
evening for additional funnel clouds. This activity will gradually
come to an end tonight as the low pressure system tracks northeast
and away from the region. High pressure will settle in on
Sunday...with a mostly dry and warmer day expected.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to
the mid 50s east. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The main focus of forecast package is the strong upper level wave
that will affect the region Monday and Tuesday. While there is some
model difference on timing and strength of the wave, the general
consensus is the area will be impacted by a chance of severe
thunderstorm Monday afternoon west and shifting east into the
evening. The models area also indicating elevated capes great than
3000 j/kg. a class pattern for a severe weather event.

There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday,
but cooler temps look like a good bet, with perhaps some wrap around
instability showers/thunderstorms possible as the upper low tracks
across North Dakota.

The upper ridge looks to being to rebound over the western CONUS
through the period next weekend bringing a warmup to the temps with
a minimal chances of storms.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across mainly the
central and eastern portions of the CWA this afternoon. Cigs
across the east will generally be MVFR...while VFR cigs will
prevail across the west. VSBYS may fall into the MVFR category
at times with the precipitation.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Parkin



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