Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 161637 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1037 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Plenty of clouds across the area currently, whether it be low
clouds or mid-level. Lower clouds are mainly affecting the eastern
CWA and that looks to be the trend through the day. In fact,
recent runs of GLAMP/CONSShort/etc have been reducing areal
coverage of low CIGs west of the James River it appears. That said
though, still an abundance of mid-level clouds to deal with.
Current highs for today appear on track for the most part,
although did add a couple degrees across much of the CWA based on
recent trends of the ShortBlend and realizing current obs are
already nearing highs in some places.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Plenty of clouds will remain overhead as the sfc low over our
eastern counties early this morning sinks southeast, and a system
approaches from the west. Zonal flow to weak ridging is taking over
at 500mb, ahead of the trough moving in from central Saskatchewan
ID/central CA. A cut off low over Mexico will merge with the
progressive western trough this afternoon over the 4-corners area,
although much of the energy from this low will stay southeast of our
area as it exits the Central Plains early Sunday morning. We will
however be impacted by the parent trough that will extend from
southern Manitoba through much of ND/WY/UT/and into northern Mexico
by 12Z Sunday. While much of the area will remain dry, our northeast
counties could still experience a few flurries early this morning.
Then this afternoon, as the trough nears from the west, light rain
may move into our southwestern counties. Snow may mix in initially,
and again this evening. Could even have some light freezing drizzle
show up overnight as sfc temperatures fall below freezing but
soundings are still relatively warm and we lose some of the ice
potential aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

The first half of the extended period looks to be dry and mild. High
pressure will be over the area on Sunday, with a dry frontal
boundary moving through Sunday night and Monday before high pressure
returns again on Tuesday. Precipitation chances return Wednesday
night and Thursday as a low pressure system tracks across the
Central Plains. This system has sped up by 6 to 12 hours from the
previous couple of model runs, with most of the models indicating
the precipitation will be out of the area sometime Thursday
afternoon. There are also some indications of fairly strong winds
developing on the back side of the low, with this event possibly
being another minimal snow amount/high wind event. The remainder of
the extended period looks to be dry, with high pressure settling
back in behind the exiting storm system.

Mild temperatures are still expected for much of the period, with
highs mainly in the 30s and 40s Sunday through Wednesday. Will then
see the pattern shift to a cooler one, with highs in the upper teens
and 20s Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Other than some MVFR cigs tracking across northern parts of the
area this morning, VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin


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