Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 141702
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1102 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
INCREASED ABOUT 0.20 INCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORMS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A COUPLE OF THESE WILL LIKELY SPILL
ONTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES
INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE AREA WHERE CAP IS
WEAKER. MEANWHILE ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS GREATER AS EVIDENCED BY STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. A
THETA-E RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A BAND OF HIGHER CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG WILL
EXIST...BUT AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THERE UNTIL POTENTIALLY
THIS EVENING WHEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE AS SEEN IN THE Q-G VERTICAL
MOTION FIELDS MOVES ACROSS. WILL ADD SOME THUNDER TO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE THERE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ONLY BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE
EXPECTED FROM TODAYS CONVECTION GIVEN THE DEEP AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER.

FOR LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS...REACHING DENVER AROUND MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF STRATUS AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SURGE...AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MON AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STILL SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG MON MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF NERN CO.  BY AFTN THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SELY WITH A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING.  THUS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS
BEGIN TO BREAKUP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
METRO AREA WHILE NORTH OF DENVER LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG IN LONGER. AS
FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO ALTHOUGH SRN AREAS OF METRO AREA AND PALMER DIVIDE COULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. BEST CHC FOR TSTMS IN THE AFTN WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SRN FOOTHILLS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE GREATEST. OVER THE PLAINS THE AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO
WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS.

FOR TUE AND WED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA.  OVERALL THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS
SOME WEAK INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BY WED AFTN WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME ISOLD STORMS IN THE MTNS.  AS FOR TEMPS WILL SEE A GRADUALLY
WARM UP ACROSS NRN CO WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUE AND THEN
MID 80S BY WED.

ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOME MORE SWLY.  SOME INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY OCCUR IN
THE MTNS WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO IT LOOKS
DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.  BY FRI BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ALONG WITH A COOL FNT.  THUS
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE MTNS WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL DROP BACK TO NR
SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON SAT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS NOW FCST
WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY.  AT THIS
POINT SINCE THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TIL AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PUSHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME
FRONT APPEARS ON TRACK TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS AROUND
06Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AT 10-15 KTS. LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS WITH FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AND REMAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RTG


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