Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 252107
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

ANOTHER WARM FALL DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS OVER THE
STATE. LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME 90 DEGREE
READINGS OVER THE PLAINS. WITH CUMULUS CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PARK AND CLEAR CREEK COUNTIES...MAY STILL
SEE A WEAK SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. THE SURFACE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP ENHANCED DRAINAGE WINDS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. DENVER WILL LIKELY TIE THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 56 DEGREES FOR TODAY...AS THAT WAS THE
LOWEST TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULDN`T GET ANY COOLER
THAN THAT BY MIDNIGHT LST TONIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY NEAR OR THREATEN RECORDS
FOR THE DAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LESS STABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT...THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
OF STORMS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING THE LARGE UPPER LOW
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MOUNTAINS. STILL TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. THIS PERIOD
WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
BEST MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WOULD ALSO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT
COVERAGE NOT THAT EXTENSIVE WITH LACK OF ANY UPSLOPE FLOW WHILE
LARGEST QG ASCENT WITH THE LOW WILL BE UP IN WYOMING. COOLING
TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS BACK INTO
THE LOWER 70S. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF COLORADO...EXPECT
INCREASING GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST BEHIND TROF AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW 30-40KT CROSS
BARRIER FLOW. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST.

BY LATER NEXT WEEK...LATEST 12Z EUROPEAN SOLUTION HAS BACKED OFF
ON POTENTIAL DIGGING TROF INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND NOW MORE
IN LINE WITH MORE ZONAL AND WEAKER GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND ENHANCED DRAINAGE
TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHEAST EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



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