Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 171602
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1002 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAY/S SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH
ALTITUDE MTN WAVE CLOUD FORMATION. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A
GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW IN ARIZONA
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. SHOULD SEE
ITS NORTHERN FRINGE OF THESE CLOUDS SPREADING OVER SRN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN OVER THE REMINDER OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NOT LIKELY WE/LL SEE ANY PCPN FROM
THEM DUE TO THEIR HIGH BASES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY SLOW WARMING AS
THEY THICKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FCST LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 429 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. STILL PLENTY WARM AIR
ALOFT BUT COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO COLORADO
FROM THE EAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. NEEDED A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THINNER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND ALSO DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
TONIGHT TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE OVER COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. THE MDLS HINT AT SOME QPF AROUND THE STATE BUT SUSPECT
THIS WILL STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO NOT MUCH WIND IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES AROUND DENVER AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S SAT BUT WARM TO BACK AROUND 70 FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS LATE MONDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SSWLY. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC MOVES INTO
CA/NV. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE OVER WRN CO ALONG
WITH CORRESPONDING QPF...SO WL GO WITH SOME SLGT CHC POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TUE AFTN/EVNG. NEXT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STILL FORECAST
FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. BEST
COMBINATION OF QG ASCENT COUPLED WITH SOME DECENT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE WED AFTN/EVNG. ALL OF THIS WAS ADDRESSED IN THE
PRVS FORECAST SO ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS WILL BE MINIMAL. IF
THE TIMING PANS OUT...THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING ON THU. TEMPERATURES ON
WED/THU WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EXCEPT FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY...
DENVER AREA TERMINAL FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AT THE MOMENT. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH S-SELY WINDS BECOMING MORE ELY
AFTER 18Z...THEN BACK TO A TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN EARLY TO MID-
EVENING. NO FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND
FRONT RANGE REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER/GIMMESTAD



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