Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 031058
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
358 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF A BUILDING WEST COAST
UPPER RIDGE WILL SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
GENERATING AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN MTN RANGES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDDAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECT IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. TODAY`S TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE MORNING CLOUD COVER...EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER AND POST WAVE
COOLING ALOFT...GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 5-7 DEGS F WARMER.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE WEST COAST RIDGE
NEARING THE STATE. CROSS BARRIER X-SECTIONS INDICATE A TRANSITION
FROM A NWLY TO A NLY MEAN LAYER FLOW AND A JUMP IN SPEEDS ALOFT.
X-SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A BORDERLINE MEAN STATE
CRITICAL LAYER OVER THE FRONT RANGE AROUND 00Z/THU...ABOUT THE
SAME TIME THE CROSS BARRIER COMPONENT WIND SPEED MAXES OUT AROUND
40KTS. WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER A BREAK DOWN IN THE
MEAN STATE CRITERIA LAYER THIS EVENING ALLOWS MTN TOP MOMENTUM TO
TRANSFER DOWN THE EAST FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE NEARBY
PLAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. COULD SEE RIDGE TOP AND
FOOTHILL GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE. NORMALLY NOT A BIG ISSUE...
BUT WITH THE FRESH BLANKET OF SNOW...GOOD BET WE`LL SEE AREAS OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW UP AROUND TIMBERLINE...ON EAST SLOPES OF
THE FRONT RANGE AND ON THE CHEYENNE RIDGE ALONG THE WYOMING
BORDER. OTHERWISE...THE FEW REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MTNS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING MTN TOP STABILITY AND DRYING. LOWS TONIGHT NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLOW ZERO. COLDEST READING
ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER AND IN THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

THERE WILL BE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCES
OF SNOW AND WINDY PERIODS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. INITIALLY
ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS WITH CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING 30-40KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW SO COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER EAST SLOPES AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH SNOW COVER ALSO COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
AND ADDED SOME BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY AND WARMER DAY.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE FLOW IS STRONG DOWNSLOPE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DUE TO DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW.
CURIOUS...THE CANADIAN MODEL IS DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
GENERATES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION SAT NIGHT. IF
THIS VERIFIES MAY NEED SOME HIGHER POPS IN THIS PERIOD HOWEVER
THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL DISREGARD THIS GO AROUND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN INTENSIFIES WITH STRONG
RIDGING ALONG WEST COAST WHILE A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO AND STILL SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BUT ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH A PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DO
NOT SEE ANY PRECIP FALLING FROM THEM. BY MIDDAY SKIES SHOULD GO
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS OF 8-15 KTS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN CLOCKWISE
TO A WEST-NORTHWEST COMPONENT AT SIMILAR SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES. TONIGHT...WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 7-13KTS. WHEREAS
WINDS AT KBJC NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WESTERLY
GUSTING AT TIMES 20-25KTS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
FORMATION OF A LOW AMPLITUDE LEE SIDE MTN WAVE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER


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