Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 231014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF IT IS PRIMARILY PRODUCING CLOUDS
OVER MONTANA...IDAHO AND WYOMING. RADAR IS NOT PICK UP ANY SNOW AT
THIS TIME. AS THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A WARMER START
AND A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER WITH THE CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD...HEATING WILL BE SLOWED IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS
TO MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MOVING INTO A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATING
ACROSS THE REGION. EARLIER IT LOOKED AS THOUGH THE NORTHERN MTNS
WOULD SEE A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE CARRIED ALONG BY MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THAT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE THE CASE NOW AS THIS LATEST
MODEL RUN TRACKS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE WELL EAST
OF THE FRONT RANGE. THEREFORE OTHER AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
SOME GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY NOW.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE FRONT RANGE AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SHOULDN/T HAVE ANY PROBLEM REACHING THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
ON THE PLAINS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS IN BREEZY AREAS NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. EVEN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE GOOD WARMING WITH MID
30/LOWER 40S BECOMING COMMON. HOWEVER SFC BASED SHALLOW INVERSIONS
IN THE MTN VALLEYS SUCH AS THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN
GRAND COUNTY MAY NOT ALLOW MUCH WARMING TO OCCUR.

WARMUP WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST
HEIGHTS AND WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT PASSING OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHTER ON MONDAY BENEATH THE RIDGE. HOWEVER
LIGHT BREEZES MOVING DOWN OFF THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP DRIVE
AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BASE OF
THE FOOTHILLS. DON/T SEE TEMPS BREAKING ANY RECORDS...BUT IT/LL STILL
BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BTW...RECORD HIGH AT DENVER
ON MONDAY THE 26TH IS 73 AND ON THE 27TH TUESDAY 76 DEGS!

FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A
GRADUALLY REDUCTION IN TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXITS THE REGION
AND AS MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS STREAMING UP FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS INFLUX OF RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING UP FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY 00Z...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 6000 TO
10000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 15Z
AND BECOME LIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHERLY AROUND
OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN AROUND 02Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER


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