Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KBOU 152243
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
443 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS TRANSITIONED TO THE EAST COMBINING WITH
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO BRING US RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A MINOR CYCLONE HAS SET UP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN BRINGING GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
FORMATION OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH/DENVER CYCLONE SET-UP NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE THERMAL PROFILE COMBINED WITH INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE
FORMATION LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR NEAR THE LOWER FOOTHILLS TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE WINDS ALOFT BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW GUSTS NEAR
THE FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. KEPT THE CURRENT WINDS GUSTS OF
60 MPH EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT EXTENDED TIMING BEFORE GRADIENT
LOOSENS.

FLOW ALOFT WILL LOOSEN THURSDAY LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

MODELS SHOW THE WEAK COLD FRONT UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE WASHING
OUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ONLY TO SLIP BACK UP
AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH PRESSURE RISES
ACROSS SERN WY...SWRN NE AND NERN CO BENEATH A PASSING JET MAXIMA.
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT ALTHOUGH CROSS SECTIONS DO INDICATE MAINLY
MID AND HIGH CLOUD OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS SOME SUNRISE STRATUS ON THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE OT COOL AFTER
THE DROP ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BIGGER COOL DOWN EAST OF THE OF
MTNS WITH CONTINUATION OF A WEAK ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. COULD SEE
ANOTHER 3-4 DEG C DROP FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGHS IN 60S
BOTH ON THE PLAINS AND IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY SATURDAY...COOL AIR
ON THE PLAINS APPEARS TO FLUSH OUT AS BNDRY LAYER WINDS TRANSITION
OF A S-SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
PROPAGATES ACROSS THE REGION. RESIDENT AIRMASS SHOULD BE QUITE DRY
AND STABLE ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH HIGH
TEMPS RETURNING THE LOW-MID 70S ON THE PLAINS. TEMPS ALSO RISE A
COUPLE DEGS F ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
WHICH ALLOWS A DEEPENING S-SWLY FLOW TO ADVECT SUBTROPICAL
MARITIME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER SW DESERTS. THIS
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW REGIME DUE IN PART TO CIRCULATION AROUND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. BY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH OPENING UP INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH THIS TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING
EWRD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...SCOOPING UP MOISTURE ALONG THE
WAY. BY LATE ON SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...COULD SEE THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE SPREADING INTO COLORADO. AT FIRST...BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS. ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORMS POP UP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
PHASING WITH A MORE ROBUST UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST. ENHANCED SLY FLOW PRECEDING THIS TROUGH SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES
A LATE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN. HENCE...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
POPS AND A GRADUAL DIP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

SURFACE LOW SHIFTING EAST OF DENVER INTO THE PLAINS AS STRONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY ON BACK SIDE OF LOW AND NOW SOUTH OF LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH WINDS NOW ALL NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10KT.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN N-NW UNTIL 01-02Z BEFORE SHIFTING MORE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED BKN
CIRRUS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SOME CLEARING WITH BACK EDGE
OVER NW COLORADO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.