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000
FXUS65 KBOU 151541
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
941 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WAVE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WYOMING AND UTAH. THE WRF SIMULATED GOES R
IMAGERY SHOWED THIS QUITE WELL AND SHOWS THIS WAVE CLOUD OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY BUT MAY TRY AND PEEL OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL DROP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. DUE TO CONTINUED SNOW COVER OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS THERE AS WELL.

EXPECT SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASED WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BUMP UP WINDS IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
TONIGHT...SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASING
AFTER 06Z. HAVE GONE WITH CHC CATEGORY FOR SNOW IN THE NRN
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. LIFT FROM THE JET
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AGAIN. APPEARS WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOWING THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS TO PIKES PEAK
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO STILL COULD SEE SOME WEAK RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY ADDITIONAL PERCEPTION THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
CAUSE A RIDGE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND AND START TO AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A WARMER SYSTEM THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO. EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. NOT A WELL DEFINED OR
STRONG SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES SUNDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM STARTS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW....EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

STIL DECENT S-SW WINDS AT APA/DEN WHILE WINDS AT BJC HAVE BEEN
LIGHT/VRB. EXPECT MORE SW-W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS MIX
OUT. HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND
MAY KEEP WINDS MORE S-SW. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION ON THE LOW
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED WENESDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN