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000
FXUS65 KBOU 122121
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA...BUT ALMOST NO CELLS ON THE RADAR AT THIS TIME. MODELS
HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH DECREASING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS
NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. FAIRLY NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. FOR MOISTURE...THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY...BUT
THERE IS SOME IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THERE IS SOME CAPE PROGGED THIS
EVENING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. MODELS HAVE MORE CAPE IN THE SAME AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MINIMAL CAPE OUT ON THE PLAINS AS WELL. THE LAPSE RATE
FIELDS HAVE A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS
PRETTY WEAK. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE SAME PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THE GFS. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE ALMOST NOTHING. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 10-20% EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
HAVE ZERO BOTH PERIODS. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS LOOK
ANOTHER 2-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT WEAKER
WITH THIS...AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BRING IN SHALLOW COOL
AIR WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE BUT IT WILL STAY WARM AND DRY ALOFT.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES START TO RECOVER...BUT THAT MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS OR IT MAY JUST BE TOO
STABLE. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ONLY A FEW DEGREES ALOFT.

STILL DRY IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET MIXED/SCOURED OUT BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AGAIN AND WITH ENOUGH SUN AND WIND COULD BE WARMER
THAN WHAT WE ARE SHOWING...SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE NEXT TROUGH...TREND IS A BIT STRONGER AND
SLOWER BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW STRONG IT WILL BE.
CONSENSUS IS STILL A TRANSITORY TROUGH THAT WOULD MAINLY BRING
SOME COOLING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST SHOT AT STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL BE FOILED AS THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
DRYLINE EAST OF US. MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS PATTERNS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD