Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY ALLOWING EASTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

INCREASING 290-295K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN DIFFLUENT H5 FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 AFTER 06Z. ONGOING
ELEVATED STORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF ELEVATED HAILERS FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND
WOULD SUPPORT A NARROW WINDOW WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING. A MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF WOULD BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ANCHORED MAINLY SOUTH OF 54/400 FRIDAY EVENING WHEN
THE STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/STRONGER H5 FLOW MOVES OVER THE
REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH.

SAT-SUN...THE VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AND SHEAR
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS WE MOVE TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND RISING TEMPERATURES TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER ITS PASSAGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END
OF THE VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  53  67  52 /   0  50  70  80
HUTCHINSON      68  50  62  48 /   0  70  70  80
NEWTON          67  50  65  52 /   0  60  60  80
ELDORADO        68  52  67  54 /   0  50  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  54  70  54 /   0  50  60  80
RUSSELL         63  44  54  42 /   0  80  80  90
GREAT BEND      64  45  57  43 /  10  80  80  80
SALINA          66  46  60  49 /   0  70  70  80
MCPHERSON       67  49  62  49 /   0  70  70  80
COFFEYVILLE     72  56  71  59 /   0  30  60  80
CHANUTE         70  53  69  59 /   0  30  50  80
IOLA            69  52  68  59 /   0  30  50  80
PARSONS-KPPF    71  55  70  59 /   0  30  60  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED



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