Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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903
FXUS63 KICT 190516
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1116 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Water vapor imagery is showing a couple different impulses, one
over southwest TX and another tracking over the Great Lakes. At
the surface, high pressure is centered over southern LA/MS with
lee troughing over eastern CO/NM.

Not much is expected to change for Fri as we have another day of
above normal temps with highs west of I-135 reaching the 60 degree
mark. Limited mixing will keep temps from getting to record
levels tomorrow as mixing to 850mb would actually be supportive of
70-80 degree highs.

Our next storm system is expected to come on shore over southern
CA Fri night and across the desert southwest on Sat. This wave is
expected to move out across the high Plains Sun morning and into
eastern Nebraska by Sun evening. Both ECMWF and GFS have remained
fairly consistent with this feature which does lead to higher than
normal confidence. So current thinking is that areas along and
especially north of I-70 will have the best chance to see some
wintry precip primarily Sun night. While a brief period of
rain/snow mix can`t be ruled out, lack of an elevated warm layer
should limit sleet or freezing rain accumulation for areas that do
see some precip.

In the warm sector of this system, a few storms will be possible
Sun afternoon across far southeast KS, with better chances just
east and southeast of the forecast area. Well above normal temps
and windy conditions will also be likely for both Sat and Sun,
especially for areas along and southeast of the KS Turnpike.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Powerful shortwave will be lifting off to the northeast on Mon
with snow coming to and end across northeast KS. One of the big
differences between this system and our previous one will be the
lack of cold air behind it. Areas that do not see snow, can
expect highs Mon and Tue in the 40s, which is close to normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR conditions expected to continue across the area overnight
through Friday. South winds will become diurnally gusty again by
late Friday morning through the afternoon. Besides some patchy
dense cirrus at times, shallow low level moisture will return to
far southeast Kansas late on Friday. This could manifest itself
into SCT-BKN stratus MVFR BASES-CIGS, though more likely just
beyond the forecast valid period at KCNU.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    26  57  34  55 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      26  57  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          27  56  32  53 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        27  54  35  55 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   27  58  36  57 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         25  63  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      26  62  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          27  51  29  52 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       26  55  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     27  50  37  56 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         27  52  35  53 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            26  49  35  52 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    26  51  36  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED



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