Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200428
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THERE IS A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THAT SHOULD
MEANDER EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONT AND FEATURES
REMAIN OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE A
RIDGE IS GOING TO MOVE INTO ITS PLACE WHICH WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS COULD HELP INITIATE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS WHICH IS
INDICATED IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. THERE IS A SLIGHT HINT IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS. SINCE THERE WAS FOG
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LAST NIGHT...DECIDED TO ADD
PATCHY FOG FOR THE ~6-12Z TIME FRAME. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CERTAIN BUT
POSSIBLE WITH THE POSITION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UNSEASONABLE
PATTERN AND COOLER AIR. WARMER AIR WITH THE HOLD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ARE GOING TO ASSIST IN TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AT AND ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES IN THE 90S. THE START OF THE WORK WEEK FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE AT THE CENTURY MARK. HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY
WILL BE ABOUT 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY NEED
A HEAT ADVISORY AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE QUESTION
OF DEWPOINTS AND GIVEN TIME FRAME HAS PREVENTED ISSUANCE OF ANY
HEADLINES...BUT EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO BETTER ADDRESS THIS
MATTER.

VJP

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

A WEAK INFLUENCE AT 700MB WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY TO EARLY
TUESDAY WHICH COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SIGNAL IS DECREASING WITH EACH MODEL RUN WHICH IS
DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER AND BETTER
CHANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE POPS GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
AFTER THIS WEAK SIGNAL WITH POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS A WAVE DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN
CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE MAIN WAVE STAYS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHEAST PUSH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES COULD IMPACT
THE FLOW ACROSS KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SINCE THIS IS AT THE VERY
END OF THE FORECAST...THERE IS TIME FOR CHANGES TO BE MADE IN THE
POSITION AND INFLUENCE THAT THIS WAVE MAY HAVE TO THE AREA.

VJP

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS IMPACTING KCNU AND MAINTAINED AN MVFR
TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER WEST...CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED AND
MAINTAINED VFR. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS COMMON BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  91  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      65  93  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          65  92  73  96 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        64  91  72  95 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  90  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         67  97  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  95  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          66  95  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  94  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     61  88  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         61  88  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            62  88  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  88  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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