Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1219 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

What had been a stalled out front ended up moving much further
south than previously thought, ending up near the Red River
Valley. Low to mid level moisture is gradually returning to the
area, as witnessed by the increasing mid level strato-cu deck
across the area. Weak isentropic lift associated with this
moisture return continues to lead to a few festering showers over
extreme SE KS along the KS/Ok border. Expect this shallow
isentropic lift in the 290-300k levels to continue to lead to a
widely scattered shower chance for southeast KS thru this
afternoon as a weak wave in the mid layers moves across the
forecast area.

Expect the low level moisture to stay rather shallow for tonight
into early Thu as the low level moisture transport continues across
the area.  Saturation in the low layers may actually lead to a
chance of light rain but more likely a widespread drizzle chance by
late tonight into Thu morning across most of the area as warm
advection/moisture transport continues with capping inversion above
this shallow moisture return.

Thu still looks to be the start of a fairly active and more
progressive pattern for the plains, as a series of shortwaves begin
to come across the srn Rockies, with the flow pattern becoming zonal
to more southwesterly.  The first shortwave is expected to move out
into the plains on Thu afternoon with a low pressure area developing
over ern CO.  Expect showers/thunderstorms to develop along a
dryline expected to be associated with this low, across wrn KS by
late Thu afternoon/evening, with some of this storm activity
possibly making it into Central KS by late Thu night.

Models show the main shortwave deepening and becoming vertically
stacked as it moves into the plains by Fri am, with the main surface
low trending further to the SE with each new model run.  Current
model runs shift it SE along the Red River valley by Fri afternoon,
with a prominent dryline and dry slot wrapping all the way northeast
into the wrn sections of the forecast area by Fri afternoon.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along this dryline as
afternoon heating increases for areas west of I-135 for Fri
afternoon.  Depth of moisture/instability will be questionable/
lacking for a widespread severe weather threat, but strong bulk
shear of 65-80 kts may lead to some low topped linear strong/severe
storms with hail up to quarter sized and damaging downburst winds
the main concern. Basically a high shear/low instability severe
chance for most of ern KS into Fri evening.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The main surface low will fill as it moves east along the Red River
late Fri night or early on Sat, with wrap around showers to the
north of the low moving across most of the area thru Sat morning.

The progressive pattern looks to continue for the rest of the
weekend into the beginning of next week.  Could see a lull between
the departing system from Sat and the next system expected to move
out into the srn plains for Sun afternoon/evening.

Medium range models continue to trend further south on placement of
the surface low and timing of the Sun night system, Latest GFS/ECMWF
suggests a more southward trend, which would lead to a likely shower
and embedded thunder chance for most of srn KS for Sun
evening/night, with any severe chances now staying well south of the
forecast area.  At least areas will see another shot showers and
much needed moisture.

Beginning of the week looks like continued chances for off and on
shower and storm chances as low level moisture remains across the
area, with the progressive flow leading to areas of low pressure
moving rapidly across the plains.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Deteriorating aviation conditions thru late tonight with
widespread IFR/LIFR stratus cigs and patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog
and drizzle, mainly along/west of the Kansas turnpike. This will
be the result of low level moisture advection across the area with
a gradual build-down/lowering of cigs. An increasing southeast to
south winds can also be expected during Thursday morning. While a
few showers will be possible, the higher probability of precip
will be from very light drizzle early Thursday morning.



Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Increasing low level cloud cover today will keep the fire danger low
as well as light rain showers will be possible across SE KS.

A very high to possibly extreme grassland fire danger returns to the
region for Thu/Fri as a strong low pressure area and gusty south
winds move into the plains. The greatest potential for an elevated
fire risk will be over Central KS for Thu afternoon.



Wichita-KICT    57  52  79  59 /  10  30  20  20
Hutchinson      55  49  79  58 /  10  20  20  20
Newton          55  49  76  57 /  10  30  20  20
ElDorado        57  50  78  58 /  20  30  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   59  53  79  59 /  20  30  20  20
Russell         53  47  81  56 /  20  20  20  30
Great Bend      54  48  81  56 /  20  20  20  30
Salina          56  49  80  59 /  20  30  20  20
McPherson       55  48  78  57 /  20  30  20  20
Coffeyville     58  52  79  59 /  20  40  10  10
Chanute         58  49  78  58 /  20  30  10  10
Iola            57  48  77  58 /  20  30  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    58  51  78  59 /  20  30  10  10




SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.