Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 241741
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
141 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 554 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE ON FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ENE ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS MN ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCAPE EXCEEDING 1000
J/KG.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUING TO
TRACK EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH PROPELS COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN
THIRD OF UPPER MI BTWN 21-00Z THEN EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA JUST AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST
DATA AND 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS POINT TOWARD THE BEST INSTABILITY
OVER THE WRN HALF HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST MEAN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG
THE WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD
FRONT GENERALLY RUNS BETWEEN 35-40 KTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF UPPER MI FROM 21-00Z. GIVEN FRONTAL TIMING DURING TIME OF PEAK
HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN`T ARGUE WITH SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK WHICH
CONTINUES TO KEEP SLIGHT RISK OF SVR FROM IRONWOOD TO MARENISCO AREA
WHERE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL RISK OF SVR
OVER THE REST OF THE WEST HALF WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS MODELS ALSO INDICATE WBZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9-11 KFT. REGARDING POPS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST HALF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND THEN SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS INTO THE EAST HALF FOR MUCH
OF THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA
TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPARTS.

EXPECT INLAND HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH LOW TO MID 80S
WEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN QUICKER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SAT WILL SEE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO EVEN AROUND 90
INLAND...WARMEST SCENTRAL. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 70S WILL EXIST OVER
NERN UPPER MI AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE IN FAR WRN UPPER MI DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES E...BUT THE RIDGE
WILL STAY OVER THE AREA INTO TUE. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS FROM MODELS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE 00Z/24 GFS HAS
WIDESPREAD QPF MON EVENING THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE 00Z/24 ECMWF KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE TUE. WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS
FOR LATE MON THROUGH TUE...BUT DO NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS
BEFORE THAT. SUN THROUGH TUE WILL BE HOT WITH HIGH TEMPS CONTINUING
TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND.

THOSE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS LATE TUE ARE DUE TO INCREASED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW THAT MODELS AGREE WILL MOVE FROM
SRN SASKATCHEWAN AT 18Z TUE TO ERN HUDSON BAY BY 00Z FRI. BETTER
POPS LATE TUE WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM W TO E. ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THU IF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE/FORCING MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AS A COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTRUBANCE MOVES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA AE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING...ONLY MENTIONED VCTS FOR NOW. CIGS AND/OR VSBY
COULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY
AT CMX. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 554 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20KTS ON THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST TO 15-20KTS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
TUE KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS


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