Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 040832
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
432 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS



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