Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 140521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1221 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF OVER SE CANADA
INTO THE NE CONUS WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WELL E OF HERE
NOW. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLOSER TO HOME...WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR RANGING FROM AROUND -19C W TO -25C E...
LES CONTINUES. HOWEVER...UNDER RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE...
INVERSION IS DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT W AND 5KFT E. SO...LES IS LIGHT...
BUT STILL EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS OVER THE E DUE TO SMALL
SNOWFLAKE SIZE. WELL AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT...IT`S BEEN A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.

LINGERING LIGHT LES WILL END FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITH MODERATING AIR MASS
RESULTING IN THE DGZ LIFTING INTO THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
LAYER...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WHERE STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES FOCUS CONVERGENCE...
MOST LIKELY IN THE E HALF OF ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. RIDGE
WILL ARRIVE OVER WRN UPPER MI EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE E
OVERNIGHT. LOSS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH BACKING WINDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THAT SAID...ALL AREAS
WILL SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. IT STILL APPEARS THE CNTRL FCST AREA WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST PERIOD OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES
TO START THE EVENING...LATER ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LONGER
PERIOD OF LIGHT/CALM WIND. AS WITH PREVIOUS FCSTS...MAINTAINED A MIN
TEMP FCST AT OR BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE WITH THE TRADITIONAL COLDEST
SPOTS FALLING TOWARD -20F. MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL FALL BLO
0F.

ON SUN...SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WILL TRACK ESE
WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND BEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PASSING S OF UPPER MI. MODEL TREND OF RECENT DAYS TO PUSH
FORCING/PCPN FARTHER S HAS HELD UP IN LATEST MODEL RUNS. AS A
RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO REACH
THE FCST AREA SUN. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER DEVELOPING/INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRES. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -17C AT 12Z RISE TO AROUND
-14C BY 00Z MON...CERTAINLY LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES. LARGE SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND INVERSIONS AT 4-5KFT WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF
LES. IN ADDITION...MOST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT THE LES
MOSTLY AS A BAND LIFTING N ON A WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE. WHILE THIS
MAY LEAD TO A BURST OF MDT SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH DGZ SOLIDLY IN
THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...THE HEAVIER SNOW WOULD NOT LAST LONG. FOR
NOW...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH...BUT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR LOCALIZED INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

LONG TERM STARTS 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE NEAR SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
THAT WILL CROSS LAKE HURON BY 12Z MON AND THEN MOVE INTO
QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MN THAT WILL MOVE OVER
OR JUST S OF THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. NOT
REALLY LOOKING FOR A LOT OF SYNOPTIC QPF...BUT THE FORCING/MOISTURE
WILL ENHANCE LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH. SLY WIND LAKE EFFECT IS ALWAYS TRICKY...BUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD START UP AROUND 00Z MON AND REACH A PEAK
BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z MON WHILE SHIFTING E AND ENDING BEFORE 00Z TUE.
AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
MENOMINEE...DELTA...AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY INTO
COUNTIES JUST N OF THOSE. THINK WITH S WINDS...THINK MENOMINEE
COUNTY SEEING MUCH LES IS NOT AS LIKELY. OVERALL...ONLY EXPECTING 2
TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

MAY SEE SOME LIGHT LES OVER W WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL BUT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.

SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. THIS TURNS
WINDS OUT OF THE NW-NNW BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND DROPS 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND-15Z BY 00Z WED AND -19C BY 12Z WED. A SFC RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH BY 00Z THU...ENDING MOST OR ALL LES. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS AND
QUICK ENTRANCE OF THE RIDGE.

COULD SEE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...RAIN...AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
EVEN IN THE GENERAL STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS LOW AS MODELS
VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE MODEL TO MODEL. CERTAINLY LOOKS
LIKE A WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR AT LEAST THU NIGHT AND FRI...BUT CAN
NOT SAY MUCH ELSE WITH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY WENT WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...WITH CONSENSUS POPS FIELDS OTHERWISE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

WINDS BACKING SW AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES E ACROSS AREA HAVE
LIFTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KCMX LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES INTO SUN AFTERNOON. A S-SE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATER SUN AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO KSAW AND
KIWD WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER
TOWARD MVFR AT KCMX BY LATE SUN EVENING. SSE FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO KSAW BY LATE EVENING AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT UNDER 15KT FOR A TIME. ONCE THIS HIGH
SHIFTS E OF THE AREA...S WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30KT SUN INTO
MON MORNING UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF IN THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NNW
WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL DEVELOP TUE/TUE NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH WED WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER HIGH
PRES RIDGE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON


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