Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261955
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
255 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET DEEP WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON SETTLES TO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY MAINLY NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LIFT FM THAT SHORTWAVE COULD RAISE
LAKE INDUCED INVERSIONS OVER LK SUPERIOR A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET.
WIDESPREAD ICE COVER SHOULD MORE THAN OFFSET THAT AFFECT THOUGH. AS
HAS BEEN CASE TODAY...AT LEAST ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WHERE
WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2-3KFT ARE ONSHORE. LESS THAN IDEAL SNOW GROWTH
AND LIMTED FLUXES/INSTENSITY WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT
THOUGH. COLD WILL REMAIN THE MAIN STORY. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS LATER
TONIGHT TO BE AS LOW AS SEEN ON THU MORNING AS THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WIND 975-950MB AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO PROHIBIT
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. NUDGED TEMPS UP TO THE ZERO TO 5 BLO
RANGE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WHERE A PERSISTENT...ALBEIT LIGHT...SFC WIND
STIRS MOST OF THE NIGHT. FARTHER INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...READINGS
MAY STILL MAKE RUN AT 20 BLO IF THE WIND BECOMES COMPLETELY CALM.
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIGHTER WINDS FARTHER INLAND AND ALSO WARMER
TEMPS ALONG THE SHORE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE NEED FOR A
WIND CHILL ADVY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WEAK LAKE EFFECT ON KEWEENAW TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WSW AND PUSH IT OVER MAINLY EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. PLENTY OF SUN
AND SOME MIXING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL SEE DIURNAL CU FORM BY
MIDDAY AND THERE MAY EVEN BE FLURRIES IF IT BECOMES DEVELOPED ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE U.S. 00Z SAT AND
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS
WEATHER SYSTEMS STAY TO THE SOUTH AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL.

NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED DEEP
MOISTURE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SHOW
THIS AND WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LATE SAT NIGHT AND
INTO SUN. DID GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUN AFTERNOON IN THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE WIND TURNS WESTERLY.
SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER WILL AFFECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND WENT LOW
CHANCE POPS ONLY AS THERE IS A LOT OF ICE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR
WEATHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST 12Z MON. THIS
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED
AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

NNW WINDS ARE BRINGING LAKE EFFECT WITH IFR VSBY AT TIMES TO KIWD
AND KSAW. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT
BOTH THESE SITES TO CLEAR OUT BUT THE LAKE EFFECT MAY IN TURN BEGIN
TO AFFECT KCMX. IFR VSBY COULD OCCUR THERE AS WELL...BUT ONLY WENT
MVFR AS THE TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FLOWING ACROSS A LOT OF THICKER FAST
ICE. AS WINDS TURN MORE WSW BY FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT TO DEPART KCMX. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTN AT ALL THE TAF SITES...THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED THIS AFTN. NW WINDS TO 20 KTS
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THAT WILL LIKELY ALTER THE ICE COVERAGE SOME. BEYOND FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30 KTS...WHILE SHIFING FM SW TO
NW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES
OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA


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