Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 290440

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1240 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

Tonight: The shortwave that move through much of the are during the
day will continue to shift to the east. This will keep lingering
showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two over the eastern U.P.
Otherwise, The upper level 500mb low will become centered over Lake
Superior tonight as several shortwaves slide around the low center.
This will keep intermittent rain showers in the forecast for much of
the area overnight, with the greatest chances along and ahead of
each shortwave. The coverage will likely be kept down a bit due to
the lack of instability from daytime heating. Overall, precipitation
should be fairly light with most models painting out a tenth of an
inch or less, greatest over the north half. Temperatures will be
cooler tonight with lows dropping into the mid to upper 40s for most

Monday: The upper level low will be centered directly over Lake
Superior and Upper Michigan throughout the day along with several
shortwaves rotating around the main low, which will lead to
continued unsettled conditions. The cold air aloft will provide
enough instability to keep scattered showers around during the
morning hour, before becoming more widespread during the afternoon
with daytime heating. Again, the precipitation should remain
fairly light with only a tenth of an inch of QPF expected across
the area. The only area that might have a small chance of seeing a
stray thunderstorm would be the far east and near Lake Michigan;
otherwise, only showers are expected elsewhere. No severe weather
is expected. Temperatures will be kept cooler with the increased
cloud cover along with the cooler temperatures sliding in aloft.
High temperatures will only be in the mid to upper 50s west to
around 60 east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 445 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

A slowly progressive pattern will prevail through next week with a
mid/upper level low gradually moving through northern Ontario and
Quebec through Friday and finally east of the Canadian Maritimes
next weekend. The ridge through the wrn North America will also be
undercut giving way to a more zonal pattern through the nrn
CONUS. Expect below normal temps through next week with the rain
chances diminishing from Monday night into Wednesday as the Mid
level low shifts to the east.

Monday night through Wednesday, with the mid level low wobbling
through nrn Ontario, a few additional shrtwvs are likely to pivot
through the area in the cyclonic nw flow through Upper Michigan.
This will maintain at least lower end chance shower chances.
Isolated thunderstorms may still be possible Monday evening over the
ern cwa where some weak instability may linger.

Thursday, Although previous runs were drier, the models, with a
slower exit of the mid level low, suggest that a nw flow
shortwave and sfc trough reflection may bring another round of sct
-shra into the area.

Friday, Dry weather is finally expected as the mid level trough
shifts to the ne CONUS and sfc high pressure builds toward the
region. Highs will climb mainly into the 60s. Winds will be weak
enough for prominent lake breezes and cooler conditions along the
Great Lakes.

Saturday-Sunday, there is more uncertainty and low confidence with
the position/timing of a stronger shrtwv moving into the region as
the pattern deamplifies. Highs should still reach the lower to mid

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1240 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017

As a mid-level low drops into the Upper Great Lakes, disturbances
wrapping around it will generate sct to nmrs shra at times, most
nmrs during the daylight hrs today. These shra occurring over Lake
Superior will lead to fog/low clouds over the waters, and with an
upslope wind off the lake at KCMX, conditions at that terminal will
likely fall to IFR overnight with improvement to MVFR late
morning/early aftn. At KIWD, expect conditions to fall to MVFR
overnight and mostly remain MVFR thru the remainder of the fcst
period. At KSAW, an upslope southerly wind has resulted in the
development of LIFR conditions initially. As winds veer slightly
over the next couple of hrs, the fog/low clouds/LIFR conditions
should clear out to VFR. VFR conditions should then generally
prevail for the remainder of the fcst period though -shra may drop
conditions to MVFR at times.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

Winds are expected to be between 10 and 20 knots tonight before
increasing to 20 to 25 knot early in the week as an area of low
pressure is progged to dig across portions of the Upper Great Lakes.
Toward the end of the work week, as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes behind the exiting low pressure system, winds will decrease
to around 10 to 15 knots.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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