Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 262000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH NW WINDS IN PLACE OVER LK SUPERIOR
AND UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG MUCH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ARE IN THE 20S INLAND AND TOWARD LK MICHIGAN.
MAINLY A PURE LAKE EFFECT SETUP ATTM AS MOST OF THE ENHANCEMENT FROM
EARLIER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAVE MOVED AWAY FM THE
AREA. MQT VWP POINTS TO INVERSIONS UP TO 5KFT WITH RAP/NAM SHOWING
H85 TEMPS TO AROUND -17C BY 00Z FRIDAY. CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW
LINGERS BTWN THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER MANITOBA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS GOOD DRYING ADVECTING OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR BUT THERE IS STILL DECENT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR. THOUGH THE DRYING COULD DIMINISH LES FOR A
TIME OVER WESTERN CWA...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SEEN UPSTREAM DROPS OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF H85
THERMAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INVERSIONS RAISING UP SLIGHTLY AND H925-
H8 MOISTURE PERSISTING. OVERALL THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW MUCH OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LES TO PERSIST FOR
FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL CWA.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ONCE SHORTWAVE AND THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVE
WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20C...INVERSIONS INCREASE TO 5-6KFT OVER
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND MAINLY TO AROUND 5KFT FOR NCNTRL CWA. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A BIT OF ENHANCEMENT AS WELL DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH FLOW
AREAS. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER FURTHER TO NNE-NE AS THE
HIGH OVER MANITOBA BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHIFTING
SOME AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW THE LES IN THE WEST TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONTINUED WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS
EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN CWA...AND DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY LOWER
INVERSION AND LESS MOISTURE IN THE H9-H8 LAYER...OPTED TO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY. SNOW ALL OVER THE AREA WILL BE FLUFFY AS
MOIST LAYER WITH THE LES WILL BE FIRMLY WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S LIKELY
WILL BE WELL OVER 20:1 TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFIED BY
THE WINDS COMING OFF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
EVEN SO...INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST CWA AND ALSO OVER THE EASTERN
CWA MAY SEE READINGS FALL TOWARD ZERO LATE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
ANY CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ARRIVES IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING INVERSIONS AND LESS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW. KEPT POPS HIGHER FOR NCNTRL HIGHER TERRAIN ON
FRIDAY MORNING AS EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE TO THE LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW
SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE NNE-N WINDS. NEGATIVE FACTORS WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR FRIDAY MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH. EVEN
AS THERMAL TROUGH DEPARTS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST HALF TO MID-UPR 20S WEST HALF. LESS WIND
THAN TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WHERE WIND
WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

TAKING CARE OF SHORTER TERM BUSINESS FIRST...SHOULD SEE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT LES UNDER N-NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AS
LOW AS -19C. THESE PARAMETERS WILL BE EASILY SUFFICIENT FOR
LES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR WITH A 1028MB SFC HIGH
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON FRI WILL KEEP THE PRECIP TO A
MINIMUM AND DIMINISHING COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
BECOME SUNNY ON FRI BUT HIGH TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
20S.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SITTING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI NIGHT AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -12C...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE AND SO WILL VERY COLD MIN
TEMPS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE COLDEST END OF GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SAT AS A 995MB SFC
LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SW
FLOW AND WARMER HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH WITH THE POTENT SCENTRAL CANADA LOW
AS IT TREKS OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SUN...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. TIMING IS PRETTY WELL AGREED ON BY THE MODELS...SHOWING
THE SFC LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA DURING
THE DAY SUN. STRENGTH AND TRACK ARE STILL NOT AGREED ON WELL...WITH
THE 00Z/26 GFS CONTINUING TO BE STRONGER AND FARTHER S THAN THE
00Z/26 ECMWF. IF THE TIMING DOES NOT CHANGE...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...SO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THE CONSENSUS STRENGTH/TRACK. HOWEVER...IF THE STRONGER...FARTHER S
SOLUTION WORKS OUT...NOT ONLY WOULD MORE PRECIP BE EXPECTED BUT MORE
OF THAT PRECIP WOULD BE SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT WITH
PTYPE/AMOUNT...BUT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT AREA WIDE
PRECIP. AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE
SYSTEM STANDS NOW. THE SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS
EXCEEDING 50KTS IN BOTH CASES. RAN NON-STANDARD WIND GUSTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH GUST POTENTIAL...COULD SEE GUSTS OVER 45MPH
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE WARM TEMPS...RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WINDS SHOULD AT WARM THE
SNOWPACK QUITE A BIT AND HELP FACILITATE WHAT SHOULD BE A BETTER
MELT WEEK FOR THE SNOWPACK.

NW FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN CONUS. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH APPRECIABLE PRECIP UNTIL THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...BUT DETAILS
REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH THAT SYSTEM. WILL BE A WARMER WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOW 50S AND LOWS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MID WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SHOULD BE A
BETTER MELTING WEEK FOR THE SNOW PACK GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SETTLING INTO A TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIME THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT AND PROBABLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. NORTH WINDS FAVOR
KIWD AND KSAW FOR LOWER MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
MAY DIMINISH THE SNOW LATER THIS AFTN...BUT ARRIVAL OF EVEN COLDER
AIR AND MORE MOISTURE WITH A DISTURBANCE SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING. EXPECT IMPROVING TREND AT
KCMX TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING SINCE THE NORTH
WIND IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EXPECT NW TO N GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35KTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO
RAPIDLY SURGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. A LOW OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT E AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT...ALLOWING A HIGH OVER MANITOBA TO MOVE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

EXPECT THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE SLOWLY TO THE SE TO
NEAR LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ON SUNDAY. A LOW OVER NW ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WILL THEN MOVE
INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO FOLLOW INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTS OF 35KTS TO NEAR 40KT GUSTS
OF THE SW TO W WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND LINGER OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OUT OF THE NW
AT 35KTS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF



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