Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 270741
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH
JUST A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. AS ALLUDED TO
YESTERDAY...THERE WERE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOWER CLOUDS COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. PRIOR TO SUNSET LAST NIGHT.
IT WAS A CLOSE RACE BUT THE SETTING SUN WON OUT...TRAPPING THE LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE EAST FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT MORE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
FROM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG...SOME OF IT LOCALLY
DENSE...HAS DEVELOPED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
U.P. THIS TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.

WITH RETURN FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO THEIR NORMAL
LATE AUGUST LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING EAST TONIGHT AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH A
DISTURBANCE MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER...IN THE 50S...COMPARED TO THE CHILLY
READING WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TRANSITION
FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND 850-700
MB WAA DEVELOPS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S INLAND
TO AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.

FRI THROUGH SAT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PATH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS.  THE
GFS...GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OR BRING RAIN TO
MOST OF THE AREA. THE FCST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS AND REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY WITH INCREASING POPS THAT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD ARRIVE MAINLY FRI NIGHT AND LINGER
OVER THE ERN CWA AT LEAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. THERE MAY ENOUGH
HEATING/INSTABILITY FRI FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF TSRA...BUT MOST OF
THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL NOT HAVE TS...PER GFS/ECMWF
INSTABILITY PROGS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FROM MON
THROUGH WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE RULE AT KIWD AND KCMX...WHILE THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT KSAW WILL SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AS FOG
DEVELOPS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG AT KIWD AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED OVER NRN WI
LATE THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THERE TO PUT IT
IN THE FORECAST. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP THERE...SHOULD ONLY DROP VSBYS
TO MVFR. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRETTY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 15
KTS OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...MZ


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