Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 170536
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1236 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





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