Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 132038
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THE LOW WITH SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM AND DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST WINDS PREVAILED OVER
UPPER MI WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AROUND A 997 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SAGS TOWARD THE NRN LAKES...EXPECT
SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH. MODERATE/STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY 06Z AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

MON...MID 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C) FOR NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MUCAPE VALUES OF 400 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY SHALLOW/NARROW
CAPE EXPECTED...AND LACK OF LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM...NO
MENTION OF TSRA WAS ADDED. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MAIN ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB LOW WILL
BE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z/15. 1000-500MB RH
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH CO-LOCATED DEEP LAYER
FORCING...AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SET UP
LINGERS ALONG WITH A GENERAL DIURNAL NATURE TO THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH 18Z/15...REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE
BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THAT
AREA...HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.P. TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. HEIGHT RISES WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN U.P. BY 18Z/15 ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE WESTERN U.P. TO BEGIN DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS 4C TO 5C.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
COULD STAY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS AROUND 77F/55F FOR
MAX AND MIN TEMP RESPECTIVELY FOR THE NWS OFFICE.
ADDITIONALLY...DROPPED THE TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS AS IF DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND WEST. CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER
THE FAR EAST HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THAT AREA A BIT WARMER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TREND FOR QUIET
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE U.P. BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS QUITE FAR OUT FOR SPECIFIC TIMING BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EC HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
ITS TREND OF FLIP FLOPPING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TERMINALS GUSTING 20-30KT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH IS MORE EXPOSED TO A WNW WIND. EXPECT
CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AT CMX/IWD AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT WITH VSBY STILL
REMAINING MVFR OR HIGHER. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT SAW WITH
A MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

EXPECT THAT THE GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







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