Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 011951
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 00Z THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS UPPER MI AND
WI...RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

AS A RESULT...WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLOWLY EXITING
SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FIGURED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...IF NOT SUNDAY TOO. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY A BETTER PUSH OF AIR OFF LAKE MI WHERE THEY WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.

A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SWING TO THE S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ONLY
LIMITED PRECIP REMAINING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...AND THEN QUITE A CHANGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD SPARK ISOLD SHRA OR
TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT POTENTIAL OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. IF SHRA DO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL PROBABLY BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KSAW. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR AROUND MID
MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF



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