Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 252002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
402 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 454 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

Upper trough from the Upper Great Lakes to the southeast Conus
continues to slowly move east today while 993mb sfc low along the
IN/OH border reaches the lower Great Lakes by this evening. Even
though the main system is tracking well to the east and south of
Upper Michigan, pockets of deeper moisture and weak lift may still
lead to some showers today. Have seen isolated showers through the
night over the central forecast area but main focus for rain today
will be over southeast half of Upper Michigan. Since the lift is
weak and high pressure continues to build in from the northwest,
rain amounts should be light for most part. However, this aftn with
some heating could see showers increase some, especially over south
central and east forecast area away farther away from lake
moderation and stabilzation off Lk Superior. Will continue to favor
partly cloudy skies over west farther away from the low pressure
system and closer to the high pressure/dry air over northern
Ontario. Temps aloft warmer than Wed and better chance at seeing
some sunshine, so expect decent warming trend today compared to last
couple days. Coolest readings in the low 50s will be near Lk
Superior with persistent NE-NNE flow but otherwise expect highs well
into the 60s if not reaching 70 over interior west. Could also get
well into the 60s over interior east away from Lk Superior but that
will depend on how many breaks occur in the clouds.

For tonight, as upper low and sfc low move toward the Mid Atlantic
states, they should no longer directly influence the weather over
Upper Michigan. Instead the high pressure ridge moving into western
U.P. this aftn will move over rest of the area through the night.
Another sfc low tied to larger upper low over Saskatchewan and
Manitoba will be dropping across southern Manitoba late tonight
pushing a low pressure trough across MN and western WI. Best chance
for some clear skies through at least midnight will be from Keweenaw
to parts of central Upper Michigan. Skies will then cloud up later
tonight over those areas fm the west. The clear skies and light
winds may lead to some fog as temps could drop into the upper 30s.
Otherwise, sct-bkn clouds will lead to temps staying in the 40s.
Some rain showers may try to work in very late tonight far west as
weaker shortwave and some h85 warm air advection ahead of scntrl
Canada upper low surges toward Upper Great Lakes. Forecast soundings
show various degrees of saturation though with weak forcing overall
so went nothing more than slight chance pops at IWD late.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

An active pattern is expected through the first half of the upcoming
work week; however, impacts are expected to be fairly low through
the extended.

Friday night: A weak trough/cold front is expected to slide across
the U.P. bringing a chance of rain showers to the area. Rainfall is
expected to be fairly light as the system is fairly fast moving and
overall moisture is not overly impressive. In fact, models are only
painting out about a tenth of an inch of QPF across the area.

Saturday into Saturday evening: At this point, drier air is progged
to slide across the area during this time period giving a break in
the precipitation with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
In fact, most locations will likely see sunshine through much of the
day with high temperatures warming into the upper 60s to near 70.
Clouds will begin to increase from the west Saturday evening as the
next broad trough of low pressure approaches the area.

Sunday through the rest of the extended: Broad low pressure will
slide over the Upper Great Lakes region through this time period,
allowing for mostly cloudy skies with intermittent chances for rain
showers. This will also act to push temperature back down below
normal through much of this time period due in large part to the
increased cloud cover along with showery weather. Toward the end of
this time period there may be some improvement as the low begins to
shift slowly to the east. This may lead to some drier weather and
more sunshine by late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. At this
point, will stick with a consensus of the models for the extended
due to difficulties in timing out shortwave energy sliding in around
the broad troughing.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 139 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

Expect VFR conditions to prevail at IWD and CMX through the period.
VFR conditions will also prevail at KSAW but there could be some
radiation fog late tonight with IFR vsby.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 454 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

Expect winds under 20 kts through early next week as a relatively
flat pres gradient dominates the Upper Lakes.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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