Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 031915
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLSOED 500 MB LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CA
COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THERE IS ALSO
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL HEAD
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES BACK IN ON
WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TREND OF THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
FORECAST WHICH IT WILL DO QUICKLY. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN
HAND. OVERALL...COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND WILL KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IN WEST NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TONIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS AND CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WED AFTERNOON WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AS WELL
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA ON WED/WED
EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -27C. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
BEHIND THE TROUGH WED EVENING. MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS
GUSTING TO 30-40MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MUNISING DUE TO THE MORE WNW WIND
DIRECTIONS...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OF COURSE...LES WILL RESULT EVEN WITH A MOSTLY ICE COVERED
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. LES
WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W
WHILE WINDS BACK. GENERALLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES IN WNW WIND SNOWBELTS ON
WED...WITH AROUND ANOTHER INCH WED NIGHT INTO THU.

FOR FRI THROUGH NEXT MON...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...BUT THE OTHER WILL BE PRETTY WEAK. PRECIPITATION
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
SHORTWAVES. THAT BEING SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LES IS POSSIBLE
IN W-NW WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS DO LOOK TO
MODERATE...AND SHOULD REACH NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING EVEN
FARTHER AHEAD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE W COAST RIDGE SHIFTING E
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND START MELTING THE SNOWPACK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARRIVAL OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING WL RESULT IN STEADY SN AND CAUSE
PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS INTO MID AFTN. AS THIS FORCING EXITS W-E THIS
AFTN... CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR. A STRONG COLD FNT WL THEN
PASS LATE THIS AFTN OVER THE W AND DURING THE EVNG AT SAW. GUSTY WNW
WINDS WL DVLP IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE
EXPOSED IWD AND ESPECIALLY THE CMX LOCATIONS. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT THESE
LOCATIONS WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW WL
CAUSE VFR CONDITIONS THERE TNGT FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER WED...NO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES
IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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