Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 172039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
339 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







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