Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 190926
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA...ONE IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND THE OTHER ONE IS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. THE
FIRST AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WHILE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IT WILL DRAG THE ELONGATED 1007MB SURFACE
TROUGH EAST (CURRENTLY STRETCHING NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA) INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE FEATURE...STRENGTHENING AND CLOSING OFF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE SOO AT 00Z THURSDAY AT 1000MB AND THEN INTENSIFY
FURTHER TO 997MB AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH CANADA TONIGHT. WILL TOUCH
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIPITATION FEATURES FIRST...THEN DIVE INTO
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW (2.5-5MI VISIBILITIES OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN) AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ALSO TIED TO THE
SHORTWAVE TO SHIFT EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THIS SNOW WORKING INTO IRONWOOD OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS TIED TO THE BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST FORCING
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WISCONSIN AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING. BUT STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE
SURFACE-700MB TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE CWA TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NON LAKE EFFECT
INFLUENCED AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE 0.02-0.05 OF LIQUID
TODAY...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTH. WITH SNOW RATIOS ON AVERAGE AROUND
15-1...WOULD EXPECT A BROAD HALF INCH TO MAYBE A TOUCH MORE IN
THOSE AREAS. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THAT LOW LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. THAT
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
OVER THE EAST AHEAD OF IT.

FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY...AS THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL SOLUTIONS IN
PLAY FOR TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WHILE THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AND
MOISTENING TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEVELOP A LAKE EFFECT BAND ON LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW RIGHT AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS DIVING INTO
THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
THUS...WILL BE GETTING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY
THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT. THE TRICKY PART ARRIVES IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MESO LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS
THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND TAKES SHAPE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SPLIT IN THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MESOLOW.
THE 00Z NAM/RAP/GEM-REG ALL DEVELOP THE LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
NEAR THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BUOY AT 18Z AND SHIFT IT NORTH INTO
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NCEP
WRF NMM/ARW KEEP THE LOW FARTHER TO THE EAST AND MUCH OF THE LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY AND WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
NCEP WRF/S WHILE THE 00Z GFS PARALLEL AND NAMDNG ARE A MIDDLE GROUND
BETWEEN THE WEST AND THE EAST SOLUTIONS. FEEL THAT FOLLOWING THE
MIDDLE GROUND IS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT...WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP BRUSHING EASTERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND GENERALLY AFFECTING
WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE COUNTIES. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
START SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEVELOPING LARGE
SCALE LOW. WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE INDUCED FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TOWARD 13KFT...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE IN THE
20-30 TO ONE RANGE AND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY SNOW WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP. GOING FORECAST HAS 3 TO 5
INCHES AND MAYBE A LOCALIZED 6 ALONG THE LUCE/MACKINAC COUNTY
BORDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD LINE
UP WITH AN ADVISORY. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
COMPLICATES MATTERS (AND IS ADDRESSED BELOW). FOR
SCHOOLCRAFT...WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND ALSO TO SHOW 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THE TROUGH OR
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST TO OCCASIONAL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. OVERALL...THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST LAKE EFFECT EVENT...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE -16 TO -18C RANGE TONIGHT AND ALLOWING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND 15KFT OVER THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND THEN TO NEAR 18KFT OVER THE EAST OVERNIGHT. IN
GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE SNOW RATIOS FROM THE LAST EVENT WERE AROUND 20
TO 1 AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME COLUMNS TO
THE SNOW ABOVE THE DGZ...ALTHOUGH THE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS COULD
LEAD TO VALUES BEING CLOSER TO THE MID 20S. WILL SHOW A QUICK
INCREASE TO THE LAKE EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...WITH THE
INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH
AND PUSHES THE EXISTING SOUTHWESTERLY LAKE EFFECT INLAND. WOULD
EXPECT A VERY QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE A MORE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND PARALLEL LAKE
EFFECT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY LATE EVENING AND REMAINS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHWEST ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC COUNTIES
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE HINTS OF THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW BACKING
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AIDING CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCING A
STRONGER BAND IN THAT AREA. WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ARE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE. THIS
IS A SOLID ADVISORY (ESPECIALLY WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR) AND WILL ISSUE ONE FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH THE KEWEENAW
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAKE IN
FARTHER INLAND AND SPREAD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHERN HOUGHTON
AND BARAGA COUNTIES (AND COULD EVEN AFFECT FAR NORTHWESTERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). THUS...WILL ALSO INCLUDE THEM IN THE LES
ADVISORY. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT THE NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT TO KICK
IN OVER THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL STRONG
CONVERGENCE BAND PUSH ON SHORE DURING THAT TIME THEN THE WIND
PARALLEL LES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THE LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKE...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE A DOMINATE BAND OVER EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
AND NORTHWEST LUCE COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND THAT WILL HELP BOOST
SNOWFALL TOTALS. OVERALL FOR TONIGHT...HAVE AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES TO THE EAST OF MUNISING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE LONG
TERM SHIFT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LES WARNING FOR THE COMBINED
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR LUCE...OPTED TO START IT
EARLIER (18Z) TO CAPTURE THE INITIAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES SIMPLE
AND WITHOUT DOUBLE HEADLINES. WILL MAKE SURE TO HIGHLIGHT THE TWO
WAVES OF SNOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR LUCE COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE HOISTED ONCE AGAIN
IN THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE TO THE 24 HOUR /12IN OR
MORE/ WARNING CRITERIA IF BANDED PRECIP STAYS OVER E ALGER AND N
PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY. WILL NOT HOIST ANY NEW HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...TO LIMIT CONFUSION WITH THE ONGOING ADVISORIES OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

PERSISTENT NW FLOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WILL KEEP
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY LES GOING...AS NOTED ABOVE...BEHIND THE
EXITING SFC LOW OVER N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE S ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE N PLAINS THROUGH
THE GULF COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE PARENT HIGH
EXITS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.

AT THAT POINT WE WILL BRIEFLY SAY GOODBYE TO OUR COLD WINTER
WEATHER. STRONG WAA WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE W /FROM A SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER ONE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE S PLAINS/. LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
30S SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL LOW OVER MANITOBA
WILL SKIRT ACROSS ONTARIO INTO S HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC
RIDGE ERODING ACROSS UPPER MI.

FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE /OR MORE
LIKELY FREEZING RAIN IF THE HIGHER QPF LIKE THAT FROM THE 18/12Z
ECMWF PAN OUT. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST...SO WILL ONLY ADD THE MENTION
FOR NOW AND WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS
BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING MORE THAN JUST LIGHT PRECIP /FREEZING DRIZZLE/.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE INTERACTION/PHASING OF
THE S STREAM LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN
ADDITIONAL LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ND/CANADA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR THE S LOW TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE MI/ILLINOIS BY 00Z
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS E UPPER MI/W LAKE HURON BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS COMING FROM...RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. HOW MUCH OF THAT FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN/OVER
OUR SNOW PACK IS IN QUESTION. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE OVER KIWD AND KCMX THIS MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW DROPPING INTO THE REGION. WHILE KSAW CURRENTLY
VFR...THE LOWER CIGS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN LATE OVERNIGHT. SNOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH
VISIBILITIES BORDERLINE IFR AT KIWD AT TIMES. KSAW VISIBILITIES TO
STAY MVFR WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF AT KIWD DUE TO DIMINISHED FETCH BUT INCREASED
FETCH...GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES AT KCMX TO PRODUCE
IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING THERE.
LATEST NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS LATE IN THE
FORECAST AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT KIWD AND KCMX WHILE
KSAW CIGS DO RISE AS DOWNSLOPE INCREASES AS WINDS SHIFT WEST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ001>003-
     009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004-084.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ007.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ265-266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF





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