Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 290738
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS TROUGH. ONE SHORTWAVE IS NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG...ANOTHER IS OVER
IL. THE SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADS SOUTHEAST AND AFFECTS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
THIS FORECAST.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THINGS TOO MUCH FROM THE GOING FORECAST.
LOOKS LIKE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL COME INTO PLAY AGAIN TODAY
WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING HELPING TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL AND THEN START A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE POPS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE OUT. FOG FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
OVER THE AREA. AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK FOR MARGINAL OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY AS WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE UP TO
1000 J/KG AND COULD SEE A FEW STORMS WITH SOME HAIL AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW PUSHING IN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY...HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL SLIDE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THE FAR
WESTERN U.P. STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST
AND A DRIER SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM ONTARIO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT GENERALLY IN THE 60S BY THE CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER/LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST. THE LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO MID 40S FOR THE INLAND
LOCATION. NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 50S. ONE
CAVEAT IS A SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH SO THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS HAVE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING HUDSON BAY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND WILL PUSH CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN U.P. FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P. BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SCARCE WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE GENERALLY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE FOURTH OF JULY ALLOWING FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THAT SYSTEM FOR NOW AS IT IS AT THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH THAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AROUND KIWD HAS RESULTED
IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KIWD. VIS AT KIWD WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE
OVERNIGHT AS PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS DRIFT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...
OVERALL...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY PREVAIL AS IT APPEARS THERE
WON`T BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER TO DISRUPT THE RADIATION FOG.
KCMX/KSAW SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP TODAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/BUILDING OF
INSTABILITY AND APPROACH OF DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT. UNTIL
TIMING/LOCATION OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT BECOMES CERTAIN...VCSH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NOTED IN THE FCST AT ALL TERMINALS. IF ANY OF THE
TERMINALS ARE IMPACTED BY PCPN THIS AFTN/EVENING...CONDITIONS COULD
FALL TO MVFR OR EVEN LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. LATE IN THIS FCST
PERIOD AND MORE LIKELY JUST BEYOND...IT APPEARS IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY SET IN AS WINDS BECOME UPSLOPE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07


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