Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250905
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

PLEASANT FLYING WEATHER FOR THE BIG GUY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
JUST LIGHT SNOW...OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT THERE. EVEN HAD
SOME POCKETS OF SCT CLOUD COVER DEVELOP 06-08Z FROM ISLE ROYALE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MI. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR THIS CLEARING TO
REMAIN WILL BE DOWNWIND OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLENTY OF HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS MN AND WI.

LIGHT BROKEN BANDS OF SNOW ON NW WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS THE
SFC LOW ALONG THE S ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER SHIFTS NNE TODAY...AND A
BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
PRECIP WISE. THE CLOUD COVER PREVIOUSLY NOTED DOWN STEAM WILL BE ONE
OF THE TRICKY POINTS OF THIS FCST. EXPECT SOME SPORADIC CLEARING
DURING THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY FILLING BACK IN FROM THE SW.

FOR TONIGHT...THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM W MANITOBA THROUGH THE
STRONGER E CO LOW THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL AREAS BY 12Z. LOOK FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND
LIFT/CENTER ACROSS THE FAR W LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING N ACROSS THE CWA /PLUS 06Z E KS SFC LOW
SHIFTING N/. EXPECT ALL SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1IN AS SNOW RATIOS AVG 10:1.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER UTAH 00Z FRI THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS 00Z SAT.
THIS LOW GETS EJECTED OUT AND COMBINES WITH A TROUGH THAT DIGS
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE 00Z
FRI THROUGH 18Z FRI. LOOKED LIKE THERE WOULD BE SOME WEAK PCPN BAND
HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI AND PUT IN SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS WITH THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THROWN IN. HAVE CHANCE
POPS IN FOR LATE FRI AND SAT MORNING WITH A DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH AND LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH
THIS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER AND LOOKS LIKE ALL THE PCPN
WILL BE SNOW.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER MOST
OF THE U.S. 12Z SUN WITH COLDER AIR POISED TO COME IN AT 850 MB WITH
-14C TO -17C OVER THE AREA WHICH IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z MON. COLDER AIR COMES IN 12Z
TUE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -18C TO -20C WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS DEEP 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
-25C BY 00Z THU. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LEAVES THE GEORGIAN BAY FOR QUEBEC
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION...WHICH HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES AT
KCMX/KSAW/KASX...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEADING TO MVFR CEILINGS UPSTREAM. ADD TO THIS MARGINAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS EARLY TONIGHT AND THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE MVFR CEILINGS TO
REMAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE BACKING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ENDING SOON AT KSAW/KIWD WHILE IT REMAINS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT
KCMX. DO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO SCATTER
OUT AND GO VFR AT KIWD/KSAW AS WINDS BEGIN TO DOWNSLOPE HEADING
INTO THURSDAY. HAVE SHOWN CEILINGS RISING AND EVEN GOING TO VFR AT
KSAW.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND MORE LIKELY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD
FOR KIWD/KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

A FEW NW GUSTS NEARING 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR. A LOW MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OF A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SE STATES CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS
THIS RIDGE SHIFTS OVER SE CANADA TONIGHT AND NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH
WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
LOW TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO
SE ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO W CANADA AND
ANOTHER HIGH MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT A WEAK TROUGH AVERAGING TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH IN WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL COME LIGHTER
WINDS...BUT ALSO COOLER AIR...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
SPRAY FROM LATE SUNDAY ON.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KF





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