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000
FXUS63 KMQT 011729
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1229 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
AND WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUSH SOME VERY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -28 C ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY. WHILE LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY FROZEN OVER...THERE ARE
ENOUGH LATENT HEAT AND MOISTURE FLUXES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT LES IN
THE ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EXPOSED SHORELINES OF
WESTERN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BUT BOTH THE LES AND BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS DRIER AIR
AND DECENT 850 TO 500 MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE ARRIVE. DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE U.P. BUT AGAIN ANY SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT.

WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS OF AROUND -24 C AT 850 MB SETTLING OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW ZERO READINGS IS
EXPECTED. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LINGERING CLOUD COVER EARLY ON TO HELP MODERATE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN
UPPER PENINSULA. COLDEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

CURRENT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING
N THRU AK/YUKON AND A DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO
THE ADJACENT CONUS WILL BE BREAKING DOWN DURING THE LONG TERM. AS
HAPPENED WITH THE LAST OCCURRENCE OF THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN A
FEW WEEKS AGO...THE NRN END OF THE WRN RIDGE IS STILL FCST TO CLOSE
OFF AND RETROGRADE TO SIBERIA...ALLOWING PACIFIC FLOW TO STRENGTHEN
INTO THE CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MODERATION OF THE COLD
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A TENDENCY FOR SOME DEGREE OF WRN RIDGING WHICH SHOULD
ENSURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PREVAIL ON MOST DAYS ACROSS UPPER MI
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN. HOWEVER...
SHORTWAVES SWEEPING ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC AND TRACKING E IN A MORE
PROGRESSIVE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL BRING SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...BUT
AT THIS TIME...NOTHING LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. NORMALLY WOULD BE DEALING
WITH LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THIS LINGERING VERY COLD AIR MASS...
BUT WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER THAT IS NEARING 100PCT...LES WILL
ALMOST BE NONEXISTENT THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.

BEGINNING SUN/MON...WHILE A SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND VORTEX IN THE
VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY/NRN QUEBEC WILL BRUSH THE AREA SUN...AIR MASS IS
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY -SN...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER FORCING
PASSES BY TO THE N AND NE. IN ADDITION...WITH NEAR 100PCT ICE COVER
ON LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE REALLY WON`T BE ANY LAKE COMPONENT. SINCE
RATHER BRISK W TO NW WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE LAKE...ICE MAY
BE PUSHED ENOUGH TO EITHER MAINTAIN OR OPEN UP A LITTLE OPEN WATER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MN N SHORE UP PAST ISLE ROYALE AND ALSO TO THE
LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IF SO...THERE WILL BE A FEW -SHSN OR
FLURRIES...AND THUS SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED IN THE AREAS FAVORED
BY W TO NW WINDS. OTHERWISE...WILL CARRY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
BOARD SUN AND ON INTO MON AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SETTLES SE INTO THE
PLAINS AND EXTENDS WEAK RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS SUN/MON
AFTN WILL STILL BE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EVEN THOUGH AIR
MASS WILL BE SLOWLY MODERATING. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 10F SUN AND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FOR MON. SHOULD BE A
BITTERLY COLD NIGHT SUN NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE SUFFICIENTLY. A VERY DRY AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER JUST 15-20PCT OF NORMAL) WILL ENHANCE THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE IN THE INTERIOR...
ESPECIALLY AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WHICH SHOULD EASILY FALL WELL
DOWN INTO THE -20S AND PERHAPS REACH -30F AT A LOCATION OR TWO.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND THEN ESE WILL BRING SOME
-SN TO THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN GENERALLY FARTHER N...BUT THE
12Z TRENDED S...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER HERE. THE 00Z RUN IS BACK
TO BRUSHING THE AREA WITH SOME -SN. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED
N...AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SN...ESPECIALLY THE GEM. WILL
INCLUDE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TUE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE TO
RESULT IN A QUICK TEMP DROP MON EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE
OF GUIDANCE MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY E WHERE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATEST
(-TEENS IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS E). TEMPS TUE WILL RISE INTO THE
TEENS. TUE NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN AS THE
CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRES PASSES JUST TO THE N AND NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. LIGHT WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE COLUMN WILL BE
DRIEST (PRECIPITABLE WATER 25PCT OF NORMAL). MINS IN THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS OVER THE E SHOULD FALL INTO THE -TEENS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRES CENTER DRIFTS E. E
TO SE WINDS WON`T FAVOR MUCH OF A WARM UP OVER TUE. HIGH TEMPS WED
SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...COLDEST E CLOSER TO CORE OF COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR A FEW DAYS HAS BEEN INDICATING ONE OR TWO
SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES AT SOME POINT THU/FRI. FOR
NOW...UTILIZED A SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS WHICH RESULTS
IN SCHC/CHC POPS THU/FRI. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 20S THU IN WAA
REGIME AND MAY TOP OUT AROUND 30F FRI...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

EXPECT HI END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN TO GIVE WAY TO JUST
VFR WX THIS EVNG THRU SUN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE E OF HI PRES
BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS BRINGS MOCLR SKIES. DESPITE COLD NW FLOW
THAT MIGHT RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS THRU THIS AFTN...EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WL PREVENT ANY LK EFFECT
SHSN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 27 KT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND HUDSON
BAY...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...RJT