Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 180512
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
112 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

RADAR TRENDS AROUND 20Z WAS SHOWING A FEW RETURNS HOWEVER...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DECENT CU FIELD CONTINUING ACROSS THE U.P. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH IS WHAT
MANY OF THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING. WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MN WHILE THE OVERALL BROAD
TROUGHING CAN BE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE U.P. THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOWING UP IN WV IMAGERY WILL PRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE U.P. LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS THIS FEATURE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...THE AREA OF FOCUS WOULD LIKELY BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE U.P. ESPECIALLY IF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES CAN ADD ENOUGH LIFT TO
ALLOW THESE TO FORM. HAVE KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT MENTION AND CONTINUED
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALLOWING MOST OF THE U.P.
TO REMAIN IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST FLOW. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE TEMPS COOL ALLOWING
THE DIURNAL CU TO DISSIPATE. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND AS TODAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING BY
18Z...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH EVEN LESS OVERALL MOISTURE SHOWN IN THE SOUNDING.
ADDITIONALLY...ALOFT...500MB HEIGHTS SHOW ZONAL TO SLIGHT RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA...HELPING TO INCREASE THE OVERALL CAPPING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND FROM NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
STRENGTH OF A DISTURBANCE BRUSHING LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO NOT HAVE A ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN
FORECAST. WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING AND INCREASING
CAPPING SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE GLANCES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON SUNDAY AS IMPRESSIVE UPPER
RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THUS...EXPECT A DRY
SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE PINNED TO THE SHORELINE.

BY MONDAY...AS BUILDING RIDGE AXIS NOSES UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FRONT INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGHING AND WHERE THE FRONT
HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION. POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL KEEP A BLENDED APPROACH
ON POPS UNTIL TIMING OF FEATURES BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC





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