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000
FXUS63 KMQT 240020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

REMNANT SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY
IS NOW EXITING THE SERN CWA. SNOW...RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE ALL BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY...MAKING FOR QUITE A COMPLICATED PTYPE
FORECAST. ATTENTION HAS NOW TURNED TO MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NNW /ALREADY ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ ALONG WITH A BURST OF MINOR SNOW ALONG A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WITH THE DGZ BEING ALOFT AND DRY BEHIND THE REMNANT SYNOPTIC
PRECIP...HAVE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN UPSLOPE NW WIND
AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TOP OF THE MOIST PORTION OF THE
PROFILE LOOKS TO BE JUST AT OR NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE DGZ AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE SO WENT TO MORE
OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX AT THAT POINT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE N-S THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12Z AND 18Z
SAT...BRINGING GREATER MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND ALSO
LOWERING THE DGZ AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
FROM AROUND -4C AT 00Z SAT TO -14C AT 00Z SUN. HAVE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL...ONLY
EXPECT MINOR ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR EFFECTIVE ROAD TREATMENTS THROUGH SAT
MORNING...BUT UNTREATED ROADS COULD BE ICY. TEMPS WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY OVER NRN UPPER MI. OVER SRN UPPER MI...TEMPS WILL BE STEADY
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO FALL AFTER FROPA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z SUN WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THIS MOISTURE STAYS AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA AND ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR NORTHEAST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BELTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. NEXT ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM COMES IN FOR MON AND HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE CWA AS TRACK OF SYSTEM AGAIN LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z TUE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -13C. A SFC
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE AND THE CWA IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WED WITH A COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH
LATER ON WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THU WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GOING
BACK BELOW NORMAL. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
WED NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER A DEVELOPING W-NW FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST AT KIWD WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS COULD
LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE BEST AT KSAW AS DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FALL IN
CIGS. CONDITIONS AT KSAW WILL DETERIORATE MORE RAPIDLY SAT MORNING
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO A MORE NLY
DIRECTION. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25KTS FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH
AT 20-30KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN QUICKLY NOSE SOUTHEAST
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING AND DIMINISH THE WINDS WHILE
VEERING THEM TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF CANADA AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TO 20KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AND KEEP WINDS 20KTS OR BELOW SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS