Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161858
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
258 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Fairly quiet weather...

High Impact Weather Potential...None expected.

First off, a weak upper level wave in combination with decent over
lake instability has spawned a few showers across parts of the
forecast area (pretty isolated) and these should move off to our
east later this afternoon. This should lead to clearing skies
this evening. A decent pressure gradient between low pressure
well to the north across northern Ontario and high pressure across
the Tennessee Valley will lead to a bit of a breeze. A moisture
starved cold front will then move through around midday Tuesday
with nothing more than a wind shift really. Lows tonight ranging
from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs Tuesday in the milder
lower and middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Warm and quiet...

High impact weather potential...none.

Active wx will march across Canada during this period (with some
energy also making inroads into the Pacific NW). A shortwave ridge
aloft will cross northern MI Tue night, followed by a trof and
associated surface cold front late Wed night. System is moisture-
and forcing-starved this far south. Another, broader upper ridge
will be building to our west after that.

Only thing resembling a precip chance will be late Wed night in
eastern upper MI, associated with the front mentioned above.
Moisture is present thru that period at and above 15k ft, thanks to
the upper trof. Low-level moisture also pools in the vicinity of the
incoming front, centered in the 3k-6k ft layer. Dry air is present
in between these two layers, so don`t expect seeder-feeder processes
to be relevant, and low level moisture appears too shallow for much
of a precip threat. Would not be totally shocked to see a few
raindrops north of the Bridge, but the POP tops out at 10 percent.
That`s too low to warrant a precip mention at this time.

Will certainly see an increase in cloud cover Wed night, mainly
north of M-72. A rapid decrease will occur Thu morning in deeper
post-frontal drying/subsidence. Otherwise, skies look to be mostly
clear thru these periods.

Min temps each night will be mainly in the mid 40s to around 50f.
Wednesday will be clearly the warmest of the two days, mid 60s to
around 70f. Thursday will be cooler behind the front (though still
warmer than normal), upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The upper level pattern shows transient high pressure moving across
the eastern conus Thursday night through Saturday...with the pattern
flipping on Sunday as a deep trough rotates through to take control
of the rest of the period.  Closer to the surface...guidance echos
this with dry conditions and unseasonably warm readings into
Sunday...and then a sharp front moves through on Sunday bringing
precipitation and blustery fall conditions.  The cooler regime will
last well into the new work week...and could kick start some lake
processes at the end of (and beyond) the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Over lake instability continues this afternoon with an isolated
light lake effect rain shower possible (mainly at kpln). High
pressure will take over tonight leading to vfr conditions. A weak
moisture starved cold front will then move through around midday
Tuesday. VFR all terminals through the taf period except for
possibly a short lived mvfr cig early this afternoon (mainly at
kpln once again). Meanwhile, expect gusty southwest winds this
afternoon and perhaps to a slightly lesser extent again Tuesday.
In addition, low level wind shear is likely to develop tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A tightening pressure gradient redevelops through tonight as a
warm front starts working the region. As a result, small craft
advisory winds are expected all the way into Tuesday night due to
ample overlake instability. Winds may increase enough Wednesday
for possible gales, ahead of strong low pressure moving through
nrn Manitoba.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...KB
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...AS



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