Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 180839
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
439 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND STEADILY
WARMING CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN ACTUALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...BEAUTIFUL AGAIN...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AREA VAD WINDS AND SFC OBS SHOWING DRIEST AIR
AROUND IS IN THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
REGION. ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR
MICHIGAN...SEEN ALONG/AROUND MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...THROUGH NRN FLORIDA...SKIMMING THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BACK
INTO TEXAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

NO BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SLIDING OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT MAINTAINING A STRONG
INFLUENCE OVER NRN MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SW WITH SLOW WAA IN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT SFC
MOISTURE INCREASE OR CUMULUS...AS GOOD BL MIXING ENSUES YET AGAIN
INTO THE OVERALL DRY ATMOSPHERE (PWATS AROUND 0.75"). LAKE BREEZES
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON COLLECTING THE BEST (MINIMAL) CUMULUS COVERAGE
ACROSS FAR NE LOWER MICHIGAN...OTHERWISE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE HIGHER...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. COOLEST IN
THE LOWEST LYING AREAS WITH DIURNAL SWINGS OF MORE THAN 30 DEGREES.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DRIVERS OF
AN ABSOLUTELY SPECTACULAR

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...WARMING TREND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW.

A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST TO START FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF WELL INTO THE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH AM DOUBTFUL IT WILL MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF
PROGRESS BEFORE POSSIBLY WASHING OUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
THEREFORE HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND OUR RECENT STRETCH OF COOL WEATHER SHOULD FEEL PRETTY
HOT AND STEAMY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ARRIVES FOR MIDWEEK FROM A STRONGER COLD FRONT
AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN
REMAIN OVERHEAD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AN OVERALL SOUTHERLY
WIND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW...WHILE DRY AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUN AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLY
RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
MICHIGAN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD






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