Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 180742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
342 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Cooler air arrives today...

High impact weather potential: A few thunderstorms remain possible
this morning.

Overview: Broad troughiness is in place from the west coast
through the Great Lakes with a pronounced temperature gradient and
attending strong upper jet streak cutting across the CONUS. Strong
short wave impulse/deep surface low and batch of showers/thunderstorms
now exiting the Great Lakes quickly through southeast Ontario, and
trailing cold front cutting through eastern upper Michigan and
down through Wisconsin. Secondary short wave is punching up into
NW Wisconsin along with several clusters of post- frontal showers.
Here at home, a windy and very warm night with temperatures
running nearly 30 degrees above normal for mid October (a warm
night even by mid July standards). Winds have been diminishing
over the last few hours with the core of strongest winds getting
shunted off to the east.

Today: Cold front and trailing batch of showers will cross the
region this morning. Per SPC analysis, still a corridor of modest
instability stretching through lower Michigan ahead of the front,
with lightning strikes back across northern Wisconsin moving into
western upper Michigan. So, will have to keep at least a mention
of thunder in the forecast this morning until the front gets
through the area. After that, cooler and drier air will overspread
the region through the afternoon, although upstream satellite/obs
data and model RH forecasts suggest lower cloud cover will hang
around through a good chunk of the day, particularly in eastern
upper Michigan. Temperatures should dip downward yet this morning
then remain rather flat line through the remainder of the day.

Tonight: A clear to partly cloudy night anticipated as surface
high pressure overspreads the western lakes region. Much cooler
with lows solidly in the 40s, although still a good 5 to 10
degrees above normal for mid October.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

(10/19)Wednesday...For the day, it looks like high pressure over the
warm sector begins to move out of the region, and the cold front
moves through. With the sfc low developing in the S Plains, along
the main baroclinic zone, in the Ohio Valley, and the 500 mb trough
is in the C Plains, will expect that the rain will remain in the Mid-
Mississippi Valley during the day. This allows the colder air to
begin into push in the Upper Great Lakes, ofter 00z. The models show
the 0C air beginning to get into E Upper between 06z and 12z. With
the water temperatures still in the mid teens C will expect that the
instability will be marginal until closer to 12z.

(10/20)Thursday...The cold air advection continues into the day as
the 500 mb trough drops into Upper Great Lakes. By 00z, the 850 mb
temperatures have fallen to about -3c over N Lake Michigan. This
produces more than enough instability for LE Rain. Moisture in the
850-700 mb layer is over 80% in the RH and the 1000-850 mb winds are
out of the North. This is expected to remain over the region through
the night enhancing the chances for rain in NW Lower mainly west of

Extended (Friday through Monday)...Once the 500 mb trough is east of
the Great Lakes, the region gets into a weak  NW flow pattern as the
500 mb ridge maintains its dominance over the central part of the
continent. This keeps us in around to above normal temperatures and
precipitation as we head into the weekend and early next week. This
looks to put us into a similar pattern for days 8-14 as well. At
this point, it looks like we won`t be getting any snow anytime


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...More LLWS...

Showers and storms will generally be north of all airports for the
remainder of the night, outside of some isolated showers floating
more so across NW lower. Any showers chance will end with the
passage of a cold front toward daybreak and into Tuesday morning.
Strong winds ahead of the front will mainly remain aloft, but
gusts for awhile will be in the 25 to 35 mph range for a few
hours. Then, the pressure gradient loosens up and winds will die
off for awhile. The cold front crosses late tonight into Tuesday
morning, and winds shift more westerly with gusts redeveloping
through the morning.

Some clearing has pushed up across nrn lower and will not see any
more MVFR until the front arrives and just behind it. Drier air
will advect in through tomorrow resulting in a sct-bkn MVFR/VFR
cu deck for the afternoon.

Rather significant LLWS continues through 10-13z until the cold
front and weaker pressure gradient arrive.


Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Winds have been diminishing over the last few hours and will
continue to diminish as we go through the day. Will likely be able
to let ongoing Lake Michigan gale warning expire at 5 am. But
small craft advisories will remain through much of the day.
Lighter winds and waves anticipated through the balance of the


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ341-342-

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-



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