Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 261821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
221 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DECIDED A QUICK UPDATE IS IN ORDER AS THE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE REGION QUICKLY, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE IS MIXING OUT
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD MASS. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE CLOUD STREETS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS STRIPPED OUT. THE GOING FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE ONLY IN
THE FORECASTED AREA, WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY 19Z OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE TWO FOLD, LAKE EFFECT RAIN ENDING, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS,
WILL BE DEPARTING, AND WE WILL SEE SOME KIND OF IMPROVEMENT INTO
THE EVENING. DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE CLOUDS IN WISCONSIN AND W
UPPER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER, BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY, WILL EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE WON`T GET A CHANCE TO MIX OUT COMPLETELY AND THAT FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER 13Z/THURS THAT CIGS, VSBYS WILL COME
UP AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...SMD


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