Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 201049
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
649 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS REACHED FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE REST OF OUR CWA NOW CLEAR...CALM AND
COLD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN
BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. TEMPS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA ATTM...AND OF COURSE A BIT WARMER NEAR THE
LAKESHORES. STILL EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE
AND AREAS OF FROST EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES...CALM
WINDS AND THE COLD AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE. WILL KEEP ALL FREEZING
WARNINGS IN EFFECT THRU 12Z FOR NRN LWR MICHIGAN. COLD AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
OVERHEAD AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OF MICHIGAN. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN VERY LATE
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ONLY A FEW ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PER
LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS.

AFTER A FROZEN START EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH ONLY SOME SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL
COOL BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST FOR INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...THE
MAINTENANCE OF SOME LOW LEVEL SW GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE-
STARVED COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE
TEMPS FROM FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: FROST AND FREEZE PROBLEMS EACH NIGHT. ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY?

FORECAST CHALLENGE: WIND SPEEDS, WHICH COULD AFFECT THE FIRE DANGER
ON EACH DAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST/FREEZE EACH NIGHT.

(5/21)THURSDAY...OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S AS THE SFC CONTINUES TO BRING IN DRY AIR TO KEEP THE REGION
PARTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER, THE 500 MB LOW IS SPINNING AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST, AND AS USUALLY HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND
AND PULLS THE COLDER AIR CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. COUPLE THAT WITH
THAT WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
BUT OUT OF THE NORTH, HELPING TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
MORE. EXPECTING THE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S SO THE RH FOR
THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO IN THE MID 20% RANGE AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AT 20FT, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTS COULD BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER. THIS ALSO SETS THE
STAGE FOR THE COOLING OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2C,
AND THE SKY CLEARS. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FAIRLY SLACK. SO TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN.

(5/22)FRIDAY...THINGS ARE ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
KEEPS THE COLD AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -2C THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEWPOINTS
WITH THIS AIR MASS HAVE BEEN AND REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THEY FALL INTO
THE MID TEENS. SO EVEN WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR HIGHS THE RH FOR
THE AFTERNOON LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH AROUND 20% WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 MPH AT 20FT AS WELL. SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN, BUT ONLY
WITH THE RH AT THIS POINT. AFTER 00Z, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
AGAIN AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST AGAIN BUT WITH THE CORE OF THE
HIGH OVER THE REGION, AND A SLACK GRADIENT, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
COOL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WITH THE SLOW
WARM UP ALOFT, THE WEST WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO REMAIN INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE MOVING EAST. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DAY
THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION AS THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
MOVES UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
DISAGREE WITH THE RAIN START. THE GFS BRINGS THE RAIN OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THINKING THAT THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BETTER IDEA, JUST
BASED ON HOW SLOW THE DRY AIR HAS RETREATED TO THE EAST IN THE PAST
AHEAD OF THE SEEMING "WET" SYSTEM. HOWEVER, EITHER WAY MONDAY LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS. THEN WE GET CAUGHT IN A FLAT
RIDGE/WEAK TROUGH PATTERN THAT BRINGS MORE RAIN INTO TUESDAY.

HAVE TO ADD THAT THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS LOOKS LIKE IT
CONTINUES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD SIGNIFY A
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW. SO
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...SHIFTING EAST OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE A FEW GUST TO 20 KTS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR TODAY...OVERALL WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>036-041-
     042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR


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