Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 171152
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
652 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

Cloud cover will be increasing early this morning with a light mix
of rain and snow developing. Some light accumulations are possible
by late in the day. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s. Much
warmer and wetter conditions then expected Monday through
Wednesday. Highs will climb into the 60s Monday and Tuesday over
most areas with several rounds of moderate rain. Given recent wet
conditions, additional flooding on area rivers next week is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

Relatively weak lift and limited saturation will limit
precipitation today. Some light snow accumulations are possible by
late in the day. Otherwise, temperatures will rise in the 30s.
Skies will start to clear from the west overnight with lows
dropping only into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

Mounting concerns for hydrologic issues with multiple rounds of
rain during this upcoming week. The ECMWF and GFS are in general
agreement pattern agreement, although timing differences between
individual precipitation rounds continue between the 2 models.
Several factors continue to be very supportive for moderate to
heavy rain. Precipitable water values will likely meet or exceed
1.4 inches at times which would top the climatological values for
this time of year. NAEFS/ensemble forecasts show a wide swatch of
mean precip water values of 99%/climate max late Monday from east
Texas into the Upper Great Lakes region. WPC is supportive of of
heavy rainfall with widespread amounts this upcoming week of 3 to
5 inches. After coordination with surrounding offices, will issue
a Hydrologic Outlook to highlight flooding concerns from these
rainfall amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

Should mainly see VFR conditions through mid afternoon though
observations do show some scattered clouds around 25hft early this
morning and these will need to be watched. Otherwise MVFR
conditions expected late afternoon as weak wave moves through.
Light pcpn expected with possible brief reduction to 5sm with mix
of rain or snow. Outside chance of some lower IFR cigs per some
hires guidance but not ready to jump on these yet.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD/Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Lashley


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