Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 170535
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
135 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain chances this evening, primarily in northeast
Indiana and northwest Ohio. Highest precipitation chances tonight
near Lima, Ohio. Showers end by midnight EDT.

- Sharply colder Sunday with scattered lake effect snow showers and
flurries throughout the day (mainly north of US 30). Highs in the
upper 30s to low 40s with wind gusts up to 25 mph.

- Dry and seasonable midweek. Several hard freezes likely Sunday
night through Wednesday night. Lows in the low to mid 20s.

- Very low confidence in rain chances late in the week and into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Temperatures are in the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon thanks
to gusty southwest winds advecting in warm air. Winds will continue
to be breezy throughout the day, with gusts up to 45-50 mph this
afternoon, diminishing to 20-25 mph gusts after sunset. The
breezy conditions are due to a tight pressure gradient along the
Great Lakes region with an upper level low pressure system over
Ontario. Clouds will increase this afternoon ahead of the
system`s attendant cold front pushing southeast. As of 19Z,
showers are transversing central and southern Lower Michigan.
There is also some rain showing up on radar in northeast
Indiana, but precipitation is not reaching the ground at this
time. The best chances for rain this evening will be in
northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio between 20Z to 02Z. Highest
rain chances will be near and in Lima, Ohio. Many locations in
north-central Indiana will be dry tonight, especially west of IN
13. Much of the showers should end between 10 PM and midnight
EDT. Skies then become partly cloudy with winds turning
northwesterly after the cold frontal passage. Overnight, lows
will be in the low to mid 30s.

If winter weather is your favorite type of weather, St Patrick`s Day
will be your lucky day! Temperatures turn sharply colder Sunday;
with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, it will be 20-25 degrees
colder than Saturday. As the upper level low departs to the east,
flow becomes northwesterly off of Lake Michigan. Not only will this
usher in colder air, but it will also allow for some scattered lake
effect snow showers/flurries on Sunday. Snow accumulations should be
only a few tenths across the entire forecast area, with up to 1"
possible in far southwest Lower Michigan in Berrien and Cass
counties.

As high pressure settles in to start the new work week, several hard
freezes are likely Sunday night through Wednesday night. Lows will
be in the low to mid 20s each night. Avoid any outdoor planting in
the coming days...if you have any sensitive vegetation already
coming up, be sure to cover it up or bring it inside, if possible.

Cold air advection continues into early next week as winds remain
out of the northwest. Temperatures will be near normal for this time
of year in the upper 30s to mid 40s, but with how mild it has been
in recent weeks, this is likely to feel cold for some. A brief
warmup is possible Tuesday as a warm front lifts north, but
temperatures only make it to the upper 40s to low 50s for highs.

Very low confidence exists for rain chances late in the week and
into next weekend. Will keep rain chances for now, but they may need
to be removed in the coming days pending updated model guidance. The
NBM blend suggests 20-30% chances for rain Friday and Saturday,
however, long range guidance has an upper level low pressure system
forms over the Gulf Coast. Should this low form, it will essentially
cut off Gulf moisture from advecting northward and it would continue
to be dry across the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

A midlevel shortwave embedded within a large upper low will
swing through the region today. Primarily VFR conditions are
expected given dry low levels and good mixing but ceilings could
briefly touch MVFR at times with a few flurries possible.
Confidence is very low on timing and impacts so will hold off
mentioning in the TAF`s for now. Better chances for MVFR
ceilings and light LES will be at KSBN early Monday morning when
colder air spills south and fetch improves. This looks to be
just outside this forecast window though. Otherwise, another
breezy day with afternoon gusts 25-30 kts given deep mixing in
a tight gradient.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...AGD


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