Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 150558

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
158 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Issued at 151 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A cold front will bring periods of showers, and maybe even a few
thunderstorms to much of the area tonight into early Sunday
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. Otherwise, gusty
northwest winds will usher in cooler air for sunday. High
temperatures will only be in the 60`s and low 70`s, coolest near
Lake Michigan. A few lake effect rain showers are possible Sunday
night into Monday morning. Lows Sunday night will be in the 40`s.
Highs Monday will be primarily in the 50`s.


.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Clusters of rain/storms will continue to impact mainly our far nw
IN/sw MI zones this afternoon into early this evening near a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary. Training/convection and high
moisture content for mid October (PWATS near 1.70 inches) will
support locally heavy rainfall, especially over Berrien/Cass
Counties MI where heavy rain has already fallen. Ramping 925 mb
flow into the 50-60 kt range this evening does bring into some
concern for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph with any convection,
though severe threat likely limited given elevated nature/lack of
any appreciable surface/mixed based CAPE.

The rest of the area will remain dry/unseasonably warm in warm
sector into this evening/early overnight, with our nw IN and MI
zones possibly experiencing a lull in shower/storm activity
during this time as sfc cyclone organizing across IA/WI attempts
to mix active frontal zone north for a time.

Deepening cyclone through the Northern Great Lakes in advance of
the main/vigorous shortwave trough will force a trailing cold
front through from W-E later tonight into Sunday morning. Showers
will accompany this frontal circ, though decaying a bit with
eastward progression.

Pressure rises and strong low level cold advection will allow winds
to really ramp up post-frontal later tonight into Sunday. Winds
could push near advisory/headline levels for a brief time on
Sunday. Cooling temperatures and perhaps even a few lake enhanced
sprinkles/light showers otherwise as lake-800 mb temp differences
push 20C by Sunday afternoon/evening. Clearing out Sunday night-
Monday with lighter winds and temperatures actually below normal for
a change within thermal trough.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Flow pattern becomes more zonal into mid-week, followed by a more
amplified Western US trough-Eastern US ridge configuration late week
into next weekend. The result will be an extended stretch of dry
conditions and positive temp anomalies.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A pre-frontal trough is on KSBN`s doorstep as of 540Z, and will
bring with it a few thunderstorms, brief heavy rain, and a temporary
wind shift to the west, before winds back slightly to the southwest
again. In it`s wake is the actual cold front, which will bring
additional rainfall to the site through morning. Expect conditions
to drop mainly to MVFR during heavier showers/thunderstorms, with
maybe even a brief dip to IFR not out of the question. Similarly,
KFWA will finally get some rainfall later tonight, and current time
of arrival appears to be around 10-12Z. Shower activity post-frontal
passage is a bit uncertain for both sites, but have kept the VCSH in
through the afternoon to account for this.

Meanwhile, a strong LLJ will move overhead, bringing a brief period
of wind shear at both sites until winds can mix down to the surface
towards the later morning and afternoon hours. Expect a gradual
wind shift to the northwest with gusts up to around 25-30 knots.


MI...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ077-078.

LM...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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