Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 231905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

DEEPENING COLD/DRY ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANY POST
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO AN
END BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE INTO THIS EVENING...DRY WITH
BROKEN STRATO CU DECK POSSIBLY SLOWER TO CLEAR UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION GIVEN SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES IN
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY FLOW.

40-50 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED LOCALLY TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE NEARING THE ONTARIO/MN BORDER DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA...WITH STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE ALLOWING STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVERHEAD
ON THURSDAY. LOW HUMIDITY, CLEARING SKIES, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL BE THE RESULT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S TONIGHT...
RECOVERING INTO THE 70S TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER IN A RELENTLESS SERIES OF CANADIAN ORIGIN ANTICYCLONES WILL
BE SPRAWLED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TO START THE PD THU NIGHT
W/ANOTHER WELL BLO NORMAL NIGHT OF MIN TEMPS XPCD. HWVR AGAIN SHRT
LIVED W/PROGRESSIVE WRLY FLW PATTN MAINTAINING ACRS SRN CANADA W/NXT
POTENT SW TROUGH OF NOTED PROGGED TO AMPLIFY SEWD OVR WRN CONUS
RIDGE SAT.

XPC BLDG LL THETA-E RIDGE AHD OF UPR TROUGH ACRS THE PLAINS ON FRI
TO FOLD OVR INTO THE WRN LAKES FRI NIGHT IN ASSOCN/W LEADING RIDGE
RIDER SHEARING EWD. GIVEN TIMING OF MID LVL TROUGH PASSAGE AND EWD
ARRIVAL OF SUFFICIENTLY MOIST THETA-E PLUME HAVE MANY DOUBTS WRT
PRECIP CHCS AND HAVE CUT PRIOR GRIDS SUBSTANTIALLY ESP IN LIGHT OF
DRY LOOKING 12Z CONSENSUS. PROSPECTS APPEAR BETTER SAT NIGHT/SUN
INADV OF PRIMARY SW IMPULSE DIGGING SHARPLY SEWD OUT OF SRN CANADA.

REGARDLESS ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS XPCD TO FUNNEL SOUTH SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE W/WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS RTNG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHALLOW POST FRONTAL COOLING/SATURATION UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS ALLOWED FOR A LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS SO FAR TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING AND DRY
ADVECTION IN DEEPENING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO RISE
ABOVE FUEL ALT AND BECOME MORE BROKEN SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE.
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW
SCT/BKN VFR STRATOCU TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS 8-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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