Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 161908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
207 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

A pattern shift will bring near to above normal temperatures to
the region this weekend into next week. There is a chance for
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon into Monday. Quiet weather
conditions are expected otherwise through the middle of next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Little of consequence this period. As surmised yesterday... shearing
srn stream sw into the Ohio valley Sun aftn looks to fall apart per
continued consensus intramodel trends cutback on temporal
distribution of pops for Sun aftn although do expect decaying precip
band to overlap srn zones.

Otherwise generally moist and likely drizzly within otherwise
favorable low level moisture flux Mon and stayed the course with
minimal pop mention.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Fairly flat flow aloft across the Conus into mid week before the
pattern aloft across NOAM buckles significantly. Ewd expansion of
low level thermal trough marks Tue as the warmest day this week and
given the likely meltoff of existing snow cover a run toward 50
likely south of highway 30.

Otherwise little of sensible weather note til Fri timed with ewd
peel of amplifying nrn stream sw trough and emergence of next arctic
intrusion into the nrn/nern US. While placement of low level
baroclinic zone somewhat in flux... consensus indicated
incorporation of wrn Gomex moisture return bears watching timed with
leading edge of cold advection wing crossing the Great Lakes.
Blended pop solutions at this range generally accepted yet hedged
temps lower Fri-Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR this period within increasing sw flow aloft. While some concern
exits with potential stratus development toward daybreak Sun given
melting snowpack taking place this aftn... believe ewd spill of
plains cirrus plume and non-zero boundary layer flow will curtail it.
Nonetheless something to monitor in later fcsts.






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