Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 290742 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
341 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Issued at 1243 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

A cold front will move across the area this afternoon bringing a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Weak troughs rotating
around a strong stationary low pressure system over Ontario will
bring a slight chance of showers to our area again Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures will be seasonably warm again today, but,
a little cooler than normal Tuesday and Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Parent upr low over srn ON will continue to wrapup today as
secondary disturbance rotating through the base of this feature
drives ewd through MI. Tail end of this feature will encounter a
marginally unstable airmass by aftn over ern areas and should
initiate isolated storms by mid aftn along residual theta-e ridge
although CAMS guidance rather lackluster owing to significant
boundary layer drying that has spread across the area. Otherwise
strong late May insolation will drive considerable heating/mixing
into this aftn with fairly gusts wsw winds.

Skies will clear this evening behind secondary trough axis with
even drier air spreading through the area making for a cool night.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

General quiet/seasonably cool pattern under the influence of upr low
persisting over the James valley through Thu. Thereafter high
latitude disturbance over NV will drop south across Hudson Bay then
amplify se through New England next weekend allowing for an active
nw-se oriented frontal zone to develop from the nrn Plains to the
lower OH valley.

Best indication for precip is on Fri as vigorous upr jet max shifts
through the nrn lakes within sw periphery of upr low dropping toward
New England. Low level westerly jet response and temporary ewd build
of plains theta-e ridge warrant high chance pop mention although did
back away from low end likely mention per poor consensus timing on a
more specific favored period.

Thereafter general height suppression aloft upstream of New England
upr low should result in low level baroclinic zone to shift well
south through the TN valley by Sun. Torturous blended pop guidance
smatters throughout the weekend yet more likely scenario is area
finally dries out as expansive sfc ridge builds in across the lakes
and sorely needed after a very wet month of May.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1243 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Light breeze and clear skies may allow some shallow radiational
cooling br to develop vcnty of FWA early this morning, otrws VFR
conditions expected across the area through the period. Cdfnt over
MN- SD will drop se-e across nrn IN this aftn/eve. Moisture has
been scoured out by fropa Sunday, but, with front moving in during
peak heating, prbly will be sufficient instability for a few
shra/ts. For now just included VCSH in both tafs for this aftn
with sct high based cu. Brisk winds aloft associated with deep low
over Ontario will mix down to the sfc this aftn with gusts around
25kt, psbly higher if any shra pass over/near the terminal.





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