Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 051657
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1157 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A RETURN TO MORE
WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES IN
FAR NW AREAS AS SMALL POCKET OF INCREASED LIFT AND INSTABILITY CAN
BE SEEN GENERATING A FEW FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

PARTIAL SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH AN ATTEMPT TO
SATURATE DOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN. CONCERNED THAT LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM FALLING DESPITE SOME
SIGNALS IN A FEW OF THE HI RES MODELS. AN INCREASE TO NON ZERO POPS
WAS WARRANTED FOR THE TIME BEING...HIGHEST NORTH WHERE A SMALL
WINDOW OF WESTERLY FLOW AND MARGINAL LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD GIVE THE BEST WINDOW FOR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
REACHING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND FALLING BACK INTO THE MID
20S TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WEAKENING SOUTH PORTION OF CLIPPER SYSTEM SAT APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED WITH A NORTHERN SPLIT WITH SURFACE REFLECTION INCREASINGLY
LENDING FAVOR TO STRONG HUDSON/JAMES BAY VORTEX. WHILE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF REALM OF POSSIBILITIES...LACK
OF SIG CONSEQUENCE AND PREFERENCE TO LEND CONSISTENCY TO GOING
FORECAST. BY FAR ATTENTION FOCUSED ON INTENSE NERN PAC JET/160KT
PLUS TO DERIDE SYSTEM RELATIVE DOWNSTREAM/WRN CONUS RIDGE SATURDAY
THEN INCREASINGLY PHASE WITH POLAR VORTEX MON/TUE CULMINATING IN
EXTREMELY DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/MID OHIO VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK TUE. A BIT MORE CONFIDENT IN FROZEN PTYPE SUN NIGHT/MON PER
TREND TOWARD COLDER SOLUTION ALONG WITH DYNAMIC COOLING WITH 120-
150M/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS CWA. TRANSITION TO LES POTENTIAL WITH
DECENT UPPER TEENS DIFFERENTIALS EVEN WITH WARMER GFS. EC LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WITH THERMAL TROFFING NEAR/LWR
20C. MESOSCALE SUBTLETIES ASIDE GIVEN LATE DY4  TO EARLY DY6
TIMEFRAME...UPWARD NUDGE OVER BLEND TO LES REGION APROPOS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN LAKE MI AND FAR NW IN WILL EDGE
EAST THROUGH KSBN THIS AFTN (20/21Z ISH). STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN ALONG THIS FEATURE.
POST-FRONTAL SATURATION ALSO LIKELY ENOUGH TO ALLOW MVFR STRATOCU
TO REACH KSBN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DRY/MAINLY
VFR OTHERWISE TONIGHT-SATURDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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