Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 181110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
710 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

Issued at 658 AM EDT Wed May 18 2016

After a chilly start...temperatures will soar into the lower to
middle 60s...except closer to 60 near the Lake Michigan shoreline.
Dry and mild weather will continue Thursday with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM EDT Wed May 18 2016

Devolution of mid level /700-600mb/ deformation axis as it sweeps
sewd through cwa to leave cwa dry bynd 12 utc today. With large
amount of late may insolation expect strong diurnal recovery to
aoa max temps seen yday with again a cooler lake shadow
area/onshore background component flow with surface ridge axis off
to nw. Surface ridge to expand across southern portion of upper
great lakes into lwr great lakes through daybreak thu for strong
longwave losses/quick cooling with sunset.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 426 AM EDT Wed May 18 2016

Surface ridge over southern portion of Great Lakes to provide
tranquil period with moderation of thermal fields into next week.
Played down pops Friday afternoon/night associated with southern MS
Valley to TN moisture profile remains quite unimpressive
with GOMEX connection lacking. Continued slightly above normal temps
into midweek amid deep layer ridging across central conus between
coastal cyclogenesis and intermountain troffing. At least partial
energy ejection lending beatdown of northern ridge extension late in
forecast period for nominal pops by late tue night...with convection
likely holding off til dy8.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed May 18 2016

Patchy MVFR BR around KFWA this morning should quickly mix out
around 12Z. Otherwise VFR conditions expected at both TAF sites
through the rest of the period as high pressure and theta-e trough
settle south. Just a few diurnal CU possible with bases well above
3 kft. Weak pressure gradient will maintain light winds despite
relatively deep mixing.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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