Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 131945
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
345 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACH THE
70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG A
SINKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SOME SNOW LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE OVR KS THIS AFTN WILL LIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO
THE MI THUMB BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND PROPEL A STG CDFNT EWD ACRS
THE AREA. SO FAR WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN A DUD WITH THIS SYS OWING TO
POOR MSTR RTN UNDERNEATH STEEP EML AND SEE LTL EVIDENCE THAT WILL
CHANGE INTO EARLY EVE.

BETTER PROSPECTS FOR RAINFALL XPCD LT TONIGHT AHD AND ALG SFC FNTL
BNDRY. HWVR WKNG CAP WITHIN ZONE OF FVRBL THETA-E AND SUSTAINED LL
WAA STILL WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SOME POPS NW THIRD THROUGH EVENING.
OTRWS STG POST FNTL CAA WEDGE FOLLOWS MON AM W/CRASHING SFC TEMPS.
LINGERING POST FNTL SHRA XPCD IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LARGELY DRY
CONDS IN THE AFTN ASSOCD/W MID LVL DRY SLOT OF EXITING SYS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

FOCUS OF FORECAST WILL BE ON ARRIVAL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LONG GONE BY MONDAY EVENING WITH THE REGION IN
A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP TO START THINGS OUT. THIS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT OF INCREASED MSTR AND LIFT. MODELS DO VARY ON EXACTLY HOW
MUCH QPF BUT IN GENERAL PAINT THE NEED FOR LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR
MOST AREAS FOR A PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 3Z TO 9Z TUES TIME FRAME.
HAVE BROKE GRIDS INTO 3 HOUR BLOCKS TO TRY TO ADD SOME DETAIL IN
TERMS OF TIMING. GIVEN RATHER PRONOUNCED/FAST ARRIVING PUNCH OF COLD
AIR...MIX POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LOOKING MORE LIMITED WITH 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS AND SFC TEMPS ALL POINTING TOWARDS ALL SNOW. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE LIE WITH HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS AND POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS. IMPRESSIVE 850 MB DROP FOR MID APRIL WITH VALUES FROM
-8 TO - 10 C DURING BEST PRECIP WINDOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK MANY
AREAS WILL SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO START THINGS OFF IN THE
EVENING...WITH THIS SNOW BEING LESS WET WITH TIME AS COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN AND SNOW RATIOS INCREASE SOMEWHAT. IF WE WERE STILL
ENTRENCHED IN THE GENERALLY COLD PATTERN...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW STICKING AROUND AND CAUSING A LOT OF
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COLD AIR ARRIVING...ROAD/GROUND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN THE 70S OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MELTING OF A LOT OF THE
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS. HOWEVER...IF SNOW CAN COME DOWN HARD
ENOUGH IT MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE AND STICK AROUND BRIEFLY INTO
PARTS OF TUESDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 30S TO NEAR 40. GRIDS
REFLECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SE
AREAS WHERE MSTR WILL LINGER LONGER. AGAIN...IT NEEDS TO BE STRESSED
THAT MUCH OF THIS SNOW MAY NOT ACCUMULATE IN THE EVENING BUT
OVERNIGHT...ROADS COULD BECOME SLIPPERY IN SOME AREAS AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS PLUMMET THROUGH THE 20S. FORECAST WILL NEED FINE TUNING FURTHER
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY...DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN UNTIL
THURS NGT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

VFR CONDS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL EVENTUALLY LWR INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDS LT TONIGHT W/APCH OF SFC CDFNT. WILL STAY W/PRIOR VCTS MENTION
PER MARGINAL LL THETA-E RIDGE AND BRIEF BUT ROBUST VERTICAL ASCENT
INDICATED W/FROPA. OTRWS STG POST FNTL CAA FOLLOWS ON MON W/STG NW
WINDS...FALLING TEMPS AND IFR CIGS LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREAS OF FOG BEING INTRODUCED TO NEARSHORE WATERS WITH WEB CAMS
SHOWING FOG OFFSHORE...MORE THAN LIKELY MORE IN THE 3 TO 5 NM
RANGE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR NEED FOR MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY BUT MAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN IN OPEN WATERS.

WILL ALSO HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY IF NOT INTO TUESDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS BUT HAVE KEPT WORDING TONED DOWN
FOR THE TIME BEING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T
MARINE...FISHER


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