Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 250901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
501 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Rain will diminish today leaving lingering flood concerns from
Fort Wayne to Van Wert where the heaviest rain fell last night.
More showers and a few storms are expected this holiday weekend
with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 each day. Although there
will be a some showers and a few storms, most of the time the
weather will be dry.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 453 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The upper low was near Muncie early this morning. This system
will accelerate northeast in response to an upstream system
digging south across the western CONUS. Have replaced the flash
flood warning that included Allen Co Indiana last night with an
areal flood warning as more bands of rain travel over the areas
that received the heaviest rainfall last night. Radar returns,
surface rainfall report and mesonet observations indicated 6
inches of rain fell in portions of Van Wert County. Rainfall
should diminish rather rapidly this morning; so at this point,
have chosen not to include additional hydrological headlines. Dry
weather is expected tonight in the wake of the departing system.
Low temperatures well down into the 50s are expected tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 453 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The upstream upper level trof will gradually amplify as this system
moves southeast out of Canada. In the interim, conditions will be
mild with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 this weekend.  The best
chances for rain appear to be Saturday night. Have maintained
chances for rain most periods this holiday period from Saturday
through Memorial day, although most of the time it will not be
raining. Cooler weather is ahead by the middle of next week as the
upper level trof continues to develop and moves into the forecast


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Upr low cutoff ovr sw OH will open/weaken ewd through the mid atl
this aftn. Lingering mid lvl inverted troughing extending nwwd back
through srn MI will keep occasional shra going alg/within wrn bound
of mid lvl deformation zone invof KFWA. Hwvr dry entrainment ovr nw
IN and s/swwd wrapping trajectories shld keep most if not all shra
se of KSBN terminal. Otherwise ifr conditions will continue well
into this aftn before improving to mvfr as dry advection deepens on
stiff nwrly winds gusting to aoa 20kts by mid aftn.


IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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