Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 281847
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
247 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION TO THE EAST...YET ANOTHER WILL
DIVE IN FROM MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT. BEFORE
THAT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
WILL AID IN KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015


AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTING CLOSED LOW OVER LK ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY...WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA. LEAD SHORT WAVE ALREADY DRIVING CONVECTION E/SE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND TRAILING SHORT WAVE IS KICKING OFF CONVECTION
BACK UP IN E IA/S WI. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE DOING A GOOD JOB OF
PICKING UP ON BOTH FEATURES AND IS ALSO TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACK. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NE...WILL KEEP BASE OF TROF SUFFICIENTLY BROAD AND TEND TO PREVENT
NE CURVATURE OF SURFACE LOW. WILL TREND POP/WX GRIDS TOWARD LATEST
HRRR/RAP BY KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS/QPF IN SOUTHERN CWA WHILE
NOT DISCOUNTING TRAILING SHORT WAVE AND ITS IMPACT ON NORTHERN CWA.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL AIRMASS
RECOVERY ON MONDAY RESULTING IN LIMITED INSTABILITY/CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AND SLOW RECOVER FROM ONGOING FLOODING BUT NOT
WORSEN IT...ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE JAY COUNTY WHERE OVER 1/2 IS
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A CONTINUATION OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH DIVERGE BY DAY 5 WITH THE GFS
DRIER ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WILL GO WITH A
BLEND DURING THE PERIOD. PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BRIEFLY
MON NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. ANOTHER WAVE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES ON TUE.
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
SAT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WILL AID IN SCTD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT TUE. A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES IN NW FLOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF THE REST OF WEEK BRINGING SCTD PRECIP
MOST DAYS THOUGH WED THROUGH THU NIGHT APPEAR TO BE DRIER. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED MOST PLACES... EXPECT LIGHTER PRECIP
AMOUNTS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.


WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 105 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

17Z OBS AND VIS SAT INDICATING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO WESTERN INDIANA IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW IN
IOWA. HIRES GUIDANCE TRENDING WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM BRINGING SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO NORTHERN EXTENT OF RESULTING
PRECIP SHIELD MONDAY. WILL THEREFORE OPT FOR VFR CIGS AND -RA AT
KSBN AND DELAY ONSET OF MVFR AT KFWA TILL 15Z MON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...JAL


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