Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 190508
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
107 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 758 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

It will remain cloudy overnight with lows in the upper 20s and
lower 30s. Skies will slowly clear on Sunday with highs
rebounding into the middle 40s over south central Lower Michigan
to the lower 50s into west central Indiana. Another front will
bring a chance for showers from late Sunday night into Monday,
along with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Temperatures on
Monday will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Upper low exiting the region this afternoon but several short waves
and vorticity maxima moving southeast in its wake and each
generating light showers over the region. Lake enhancement has
helped keep some light showers going in the northwest. Finally
starting to see drier air and subsidence work in behind these waves.
However...hires guidance has been rather persistent holding onto
light reflectivity and QPF in far east this evening with cyclonic
flow and low level moisture along with subtle waves. Will time out
returns on radar moving east this evening then hold onto low chance
pops through mid evening far east. Rest of area to remain dry
tonight but expect cloud cover to remain locked in with inversion
and trapped moisture. Clouds to slowly erode Sunday afternoon but
remain slower than most guidance until low level ridge and stronger
warm air advection moves in. Highs will trend back into the 40s with
some lower 50s back into the far southwest where a bit of afternoon
sun possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Warmer temps expected Monday with return flow but this will also
increase moisture flux across the region with rain likely. Short
wave to cross the region with best dynamics focused across the
north. Increased moisture and modest low level convergence will
produce numerous showers. Added a slight chance of thunder given
warming profiles but not overly excited about chances.

The thermal roller coaster continues this week with modest cold air
advection Tuesday as front sags southward. Cooling may be offset
some by clearing and mid March Sun Tuesday afternoon so highs could
push 50F. North to northeast low level flow will bring colder temps
south Tuesday night and Wednesday. This cold shot to be short lived
as high pressure slides from Great Lakes to the Atlantic and return
flow develops once again. Strong warm air advection takes place
Thursday night into Friday as cyclogenesis occurs with low pressure
lifting out of the Rockies. Models have various solutions with how
and where this system will track so stayed close to blended
pops/wx/temps in later periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Slow trudge out of widespread mvfr cigs expected this period. 00Z
KDTX raob illustrates the problem with deep saturation under
subsidence inversion aloft and given positioning of sfc ridge this
morning expect low cigs will persist into this aftn and likely
evening invof KFWA.

However backing of low level flow late this aftn should afford some
low level drying invof KSBN and will optimistically scatter into vfr.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...T


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