Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251050
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL END ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT
TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BACK EDGE OF LARGE RAIN BAND SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TRAILS NERN
IL LOW AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS
MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN WITH MVFR OR PSBLY IFR
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT FWA WHILE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF SBN WITH CONTD VFR CONDITIONS FCST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


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