Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
137 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

An area of convection moves west from the Middle Mississippi
Valley with a possibility of heavy rain, especially in areas that
already had heavy rain earlier this week. Thunder is also possible
especially in areas south of US-30. Saturday starts dry, but more
unsettled weather returns for the latter half of the day into
Sunday and some pop showers are possible on Memorial day. Highs
remain in the 70s through the holiday weekend with some upper 60s
moving into the picture for Tuesday.


Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

After briefing with officials in Paulding county, have opted to
expand Flash Flood Watch into Paulding county for same valid time.
While SW part of the county was grazed by the heaviest rain,
impacts are being felt as rivers struggle to handle upstream
drainage. Flood conditions have improved in Payne, but are
deteriorating in Paulding. With signals of heavy rain potential
still existing in CAMs and current conditions, see no reason not
to include them in the watch. No plans to extend any further at
this time, with surrounding counties in better shape for the time

For the remainder of the day, band of dying showers was working
through central Illinois. Models picked up on this well and expect
this to continue as stronger flow refocuses with MCV moving slowly
east across southern IA. Sufficient clearing has commenced to
allow for temps to climb to near or just above 60 already this
morning with some lower clouds still holding temps back in NE


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

There is the potential for another round of heavy rain late today
and especially tonight. A Meso Convective System over northeast
Kansas early this morning should track east/northeast into our
area late today and tonight. A flash flood watch has been issued
over areas that received the heaviest rains Wednesday night,
including amounts over 5 inches. This area extends from Allen
County Indiana to Van Wert, and then south to include Jay county.
There is still some uncertainty in rainfall amounts, but between
1 to 2 inches are possible with locally higher amounts. Several
models did not initialize the MCS very well and were rejected.
Favor the NMM that includes several parameters for heavy rain
including a deep warm cloud layer, precipitable water values
topping out over 1.8 inches at Fort Wayne and a tightly packed
thermal gradient in the vicinity of the low. There will be a break
in the rain Saturday before next system arrives Saturday night
with more showers and storms.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

An upper level trof will amplify over the area early next week.
Cooler air will spread into the area. It looks like afternoon
instability showers are possible on Memorial Day near the Michigan
line, otherwise, conditions should be dry. Cooler weather is ahead
Tuesday, before the pattern amplifies late in the week with warmer
weather and more unsettled conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

An area of low pressure and attendant warm front will be
approaching later this afternoon with increasing moisture and
instability especially towards central Indiana. This leaves the
best chance for thunderstorms around evening time and into the
overnight at FWA, but can`t rule SBN out. Winds will adjust to be
out of the southeast during the afternoon before swinging around
to the north and west after the front moves through. Next, we`ll
have to watch for decreasing conditions into IFR especially at FWA
behind the thunderstorm chances tonight as moisture and cool air
come in, subsidence occurs and winds remain around or below 5 kts.


IN...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for INZ018-026-027-032>034.

OH...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for OHZ015-024.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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