Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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678
FXUS63 KIWX 091654
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1254 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming hot and humid Friday and Saturday. Highs in the upper 80s
  with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

- Chances abound for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms through early next week.

- Severe storms are not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Incredibly stable mid level (700mb-500mb) lapse rates in the
order of 4.7 to 5.0 C/Kg were over northern Indiana and
surrounding areas. Scattered showers and a few storms have
survived the night in the base of the upper level trof that was
moving through the Upper Great Lakes region. Scattered showers
and storms will become more numerous by late this afternoon with
daytime heating. Severe storms are not expected, but locally
heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible.
There should be a short break in the activity Thursday with
somewhat more stable air, slightly lower dew points and weak
subsidence.

An upper level trof topping the subtropical ridge extension was
over the southwest CONUS will phase with another wave moving
east across southern Canada. These merging systems will bring a
good chance for showers and storms Friday. Given the stable
conditions, heavy rainfall is not expected. After Friday,
numerous chances for showers and storms will persist through the
middle of next week given the environment of high precipitable
water values and deep moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing this
afternoon in the warm sector of an approaching low over eastern
Michigan. KSBN is on the western fringe of this activity with
the most robust cumulus development noted to their east and
south. Not enough confidence to offer a dry forecast there,
thus, I`ve retained the inherited -TSRA mention.

Confidence is higher at KFWA for thunderstorms this afternoon,
though existing cloud cover has limited instability somewhat. In
the wake of showers and storms, fog appears to be increasingly
likely with renewed low level moisture, weak flow, strong model
concensus and a slow-moving front. Fog is less certain at KSBN
where, like existing satellite trends above, they are on the
western fringe of fog in model guidance. This trend will need to
be monitored for the next issuance. For now, held onto the
prevailing VFR conditions at KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through
     late tonight for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through
     late tonight for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Brown