Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 291814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to last into
Saturday afternoon as a low pressure system crosses the region.
Localized flooding due to heavy rain and slow storm movement is
possible through this evening. Lows tonight will be in the 60s.
Highs Saturday will be around 80.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Chaotic pattn sfc and aloft this aftn. Old synoptic fntl zone had
mixed into swrn zones w/composite outflw/wk cdfntl zone through
srn MI. Meanwhile aloft...w-e vort channel and wk mid lvl
frontogenesis overhead conts to persist ewd of fractured sw
disturbances extending fm se NE into wrn IL. Given stg
heating/destabilization ongoing xpc dvlpg convn ovr w/sw areas in
proximity to old synoptic bndry will expand ewd inadv of apchg
wave coming out of wrn IL and build ewd acrs nrn IN lt this aftn
and into OH by evening.

Otrws activity contg within composite bndry ovr srn MI into nw OH
likely to persist until lead sw disturbance pivots through this
evening. In all most areas esp nwd of the highway 24 corridor shld
see a more generous coverage of shra/tsra this aftn evening as
this sys works through the area. Contd wk flw aloft within an
appreciably moist airmass again points to localized heavy rainfall
yet without a more coherent focus aloft nor sig ll mass flux no
water related headlines needed.

Ltl chg xpcd on Sat as pattn aloft persists w/primary mid lvl trough
axis finally making a push east lt Sat night. Will expand prior pops
while emphasizing nrn half for btr implied chc both Sat aftn and eve
tied to diurnal heating cycle and persisting mid lvl convergence.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Ridging aloft to build sigly and spread ewd into the wrn Lakes
this pd as east Canada troughing breaks down although that appears
likely to redvlp twd dy8. Regardless lg scale pattn suggestive of
conv complexes dvlpg within nrn periphery of growing
heat/instability dome acrs the plains as erly as lt Tue yet deemed
moreso twd Wed and then persisting through Fri pending degree of
ridging that blds newd into the Grtlks. Regardless at this range
will truncate fallacious blended pops to lwr bound chcs given lack
of model based temporal consensus on both upr ridge placement and


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Low pressure crossing the region will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the terminals late this afternoon into this
evening. Otherwise, with abundant moisture, light winds, and a
stationary front in the area expect low end MVFR and even IFR
ceilings and visibilities to make a return tonight. There are
additional chances for showers and storms Saturday afternoon
beyond the TAF period.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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