Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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434
FXUS63 KIWX 281033
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
633 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move east today. Southerly
winds will increase resulting in breezy and warmer conditions. A
cold front will push east across the Great Lakes late Friday with
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Potent lead sw trough ejecting out of wrn SD this morning will track
rapidly newd into the UP by mid evening as trailing cold front
stalls wwd through the central plains. Meanwhile strong return flow
develops ewd into the lakes especially by late aftn in concert with
ewd shift of LLJ. Somewhat slower ewd advection of low level theta-e
ridge seen throughout 00Z guidance suite and as such will delay pops
again while cutting sharply back from prior likely pops in light of
nwd shift of LLJ core late tonight along with most substantial upper
forcing tracking well north in MI.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Lead disturbance shears out through ON Thu to start the period. Some
precip potential still indicated within the solution scope to hold
with a low chance pop Thu morning in deference to CAMS solutions
indicating remnant outflow from late Wed night convection over MI
residing across nrn zones. Otherwise far greater prospects for
storms indicated lt Thu aftn and Thu night invof of convectively
reinforced boundary. Substantial theta-e ridge and resurging LLJ
sewd of upstream significant sw trough digging through the dakotas
highlights a certain heavy precip producing MCS risk yet placement
details quite sketchy and no doubt predicated in late DY1
developments concerning modulation of potential outflow boundary.

Thereafter dakotas sw deepens further ewd into the upper midwest
Friday night. This will allow sfc frontal zone to kick ewd late Fri
with corresponding band of shra/tsra extending swd from sfc cyclone
ejecting through WI. Shra likely to extend well into Sat too
especially east as upper low wraps up through wrn ON again and upper
trough slow to edge east.

Beyond that mid level subsidence and weak sfc ridging follows
through the lakes Sun followed by yet another upstream sw dropping
through the nrn plains Mon and into the srn lakes Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

High clouds from upstream convection will spill into the area, but
do little to stop strong mixing of somewhat higher winds to the
surface late morning into early evening with gusts around 25 kts.
As mixing calms down (1Z-ish), threat of low level wind shear
will increase later tonight as low level jet ramps up further.
Threat may diminish shy of 12Z Thurs, but just left in through end
of TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Thursday afternoon for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Fisher


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