Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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933
FXUS63 KIWX 300900
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
500 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 453 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Scattered showers across the area will become more numerous
this morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
Southern Plains. Thunderstorms are also possible as the low moves
through. There is a marginal risk of severe storms south of Route
30...this afternoon and evening. Showers will taper off from west
to east Friday as the low departs. High pressure will build into
the Midwest Saturday providing fair weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 453 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

A vigorous upper level low was centered over eastern Kansas early
this morning. This system will move east and track north of the
Ohio Valley Friday. Several factors appear to be coming together
for the potential for severe storms over the forecast area today
and early tonight. A warm front will move north today and should
be close to Highway 30 by late afternoon. A cool east flow north
of the front off Lake Erie will accentuate the front. Increasing
instability combined with increasing low level shear will enhance
the chances for strong to severe storms including large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes along and south of the
front. The best chances for severe storms is from mid afternoon
through this evening. Precipitable water values are still expected
to approach climatological maxes of 1.25 for this time of year.
Rainfall amounts by the time rain ends Friday should range
between 0.75 inches over northwest Ohio to 1.25 inches over
northwest Indiana. Lingering rain will diminish Friday as the low
moves east and high pressure builds across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 453 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Two more rounds of rain are on the horizon as more upper level
systems move across the area next week. Rain is expected to
develop by late Sunday and continue into Monday with the arrival
of next system. After a break Tuesday, more rain is likely
Wednesday. Thermal profiles favor all rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1237 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Strong low level theta-e advection/isent lift ahead of low
pressure system centered over ern KS resulting in sct shra
across nrn IN attm. SHRA should become more widespread overnight
and Thu as low moves ne and moisture deepens across the area.
Isolated tstms also psbl this morning as elevated instability
overspreads the area but coverage too limited to mention in tafs.
Instability will increase Thu aftn as the low moves ne and
associated warm front lift into nrn IN. This combination appears
to offer a decent chc of tstms, especially at FWA closer to the
warm front. For now will just mention vcts in tafs. Flight
conditions should grdly lower to mvfr this morning but may improve
to vfr at FWA this aftn as a pocket of drier air wraps around the
low.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...JT


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