Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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785
FXUS63 KIWX 290440
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1240 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

High pressure will provide mainly dry conditions across the area
today into Tuesday. An approaching cold front will bring the next
chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Highs both today and Tuesday will reach the 80s, with
lows in the 60s. A cooler and less humid airmass will overspread
the region for the second half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Upper level wave skirting northern tier of CONUS into southeast
Ontario late this afternoon will result in stalling of pooled low
level moisture axis across the area. A weak sheared upper vort
trailing across across the southern Great Lakes associated with
mid/upper level jet will provide some weak mid/upper forcing through
late this afternoon.  Weak to moderate instability should combine
with this weak forcing for scattered afternoon/early evening showers
and thunderstorms across central/southern portions of the forecast
area. Severe weather is currently not expected although cannot
completely rule out any stronger cells producing short-lived 30 to
40 mph wind gusts late afternoon. With relatively slow storm motion
and showers training over same location along broad confluence
zones, some very localized heavy downpours are possible through late
afternoon. Isolated-scattered shower/storm potential should diminish
after 00Z. Have received a few reports of funnel clouds across
southeast lower Michigan in DTX forecast area, and while not
expecting significant severe weather at this time, will continue to
monitor over next few hours. Quiet weather expected for the
remainder of the night with persistence of low level ridging and
light flow. An overall similar setup late tonight/early Monday
morning should allow for some patchy fog formation once again for
rural and low lying areas.

A short wave tracking through base of larger scale eastern Canadian
trough early Monday should allow for more substantial low level dry
air advection to work across northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio on
Monday with best lingering low level moisture likely situated across
west central and northwest Indiana. Any substantial forcing will
likely be hard to come by on Monday however, with only possibility
of note are weak waves lifting northward from cut-off upper trough
across the Four Corners region. Cannot completely rule out an
afternoon isolated storm across the far west/southwest Monday, but
chances appear quite low at this time. Warm conditions to continue
into Monday with highs similar to that of today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A quiet period shaping up for the beginning of the long term period.
Low level ridge axis will remain anchored across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley. The next feature of interest will be the next
southern Canadian trough progressing through mean upper ridge across
south central Canada. This will eventually allow cold frontal
boundary to drop across the southern Great Lakes late Tuesday night
or Wednesday. Blocking anticyclone will contribute to some moisture
availability question with little opportunity for significant
moisture transport into the area in advance of the front.
Frontogenetic flow should result in some pooled moisture along and
just in advance of this boundary that should support scattered
shower/storms late Tuesday night/Wednesday. Severe weather potential
looks on the low side as shear profiles should remain marginal and
more robust shear profiles well divorced to the north across
Upper Great Lakes. At least a brief shot of cooler air appears to
be in store behind this front for the end of the week with highs
in the mid 70s for Thursday/Friday before moderating back into the
lower 80s for Days 7-8 as low level thermal troughing shifts off
to east/moderates. Medium range models suggest this warming trend
should continue behind this forecast period as longwave troughing
becomes established across western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Light winds, mainly clear skies, and residual low level moisture
will once again contribute to patchy fog/stratus development early
this morning. Whether these restrictions impact the terminals
remains of low confidence, resulting in no change from previous
fcst. Dry/VFR expected otherwise as diurnally driven thunder
chances near leftover theta-e gradient sag southwest of
KSBN/KFWA.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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