Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
130 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Primarily fair weather will continue through the weekend as high
pressure dominates the region. Expect a slight chance of rain
showers on Lake Michigan early Thursday, but overall conditions will
be dry. High temperatures will be in the 70`s. Lows will be chilly,
ranging from the upper 40`s to the 50`s. Life-threatening waves and
currents are expected on Lake Michigan beaches through this evening.
Those heading to the beach should stay out of the water, and avoid
walking out onto piers and breakwalls. Conditions will subside later
tonight into Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High pressure will begin to take control of the region today with
cooler and much less humid conditions. Enough residual moisture
will exist to allow for cu field to pop late morning into this
afternoon, but dry conditions will remain. Highs will be in the
lower to middle 70s with locations along the lakeshore barely
touching 70 with the NW flow off the lake.

Skies will clear out for most locations for tonight. However,
approaching disturbance out of Minnesota will bring enough moisture
and cold air aloft to allow for some lake effect cloud cover. Still
not expecting much more than partly cloudy skies closer to the


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Upper level disturbance will ride the edge of the ridge bringing
increased clouds to much of the area, especially Thursday morning.
Cold air aloft will allow for a pocket of steep mid level lapse
rates (6.5-7 C/KM) which could stir up a few light showers near the
lakeshore areas as well as isolated waterspouts over the nearshore
waters. Will leave forecast dry for the time being given, but may
need to introduce at least some slgt chc pops in Berrien/LaPorte
counties. Will be a raw day by late August standards with some
locations not even getting close to 70, especially closer to the

Quiet conditions then settle in through the bulk of the period with
the next trough beginning to edge towards the area from the west
Mon/Tues. All models shows spurious QPF from any number of factors
over the area. Confidence remains low if pops will even workout,
especially Monday. Will go ahead and hold onto pops for Mon-Tues
with diminishing trend Monday night with loss of daytime heating.
Exact impacts from what is expected to be remnants of Harvey plus
potential east coast tropical system remain to be seen.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High pressure in place over the Great Lakes region will keep
conditions VFR at the TAF Sites. Daytime cumulus are developing
already this afternoon per visible satellite, with scattered to
broken ceilings at 4-5Kft reported by observations. Expect FEW with
the lake breeze suppressing cloud development at KSBN this
afternoon, and providing gusty winds, but models continue to hint at
lake enhancement overnight. Some of the models even generate
precipitation, but confidence is lower in this occurring. Left the
precipitation out for at this point, but did bring in a broken
ceiling Thursday morning to account for the lake enhancement. Winds
will gradually die down after sunset this evening and through


IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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