Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310446
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1246 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

High pressure over the Midwest will move slowly east providing dry
conditions across our area through Tuesday night. A cold front
over the northern Rockies is expected to move across our area
Wednesday and Thursday... possibly accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Another high pressure system will build
in behind the front resulting in dry weather Friday. Lows tonight
will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s... with highs Tuesday in
the lower and middle 80s. Temperatures will remain above normal
through mid-week... then cool down to near normal readings by
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Mainly dry/quiet/comfortable conditions will prevail through Tuesday
night as low/mid level ridge axis across the Mid/Lower MS Valleys
builds northeast into the lower Great Lakes in response to a strong
low pressure system emerging over the Northern Plains. At the sfc,
an initially diffuse frontal boundary arcing se from South Dakota to
the western Ohio Valley will slowly edge close to our western zones
by Tuesday afternoon-night. Rain chances tied to the associated
leading/elevated theta-e gradient should mainly remain just west of
the forecast area through Tuesday night. Otherwise in the near
term (late this afternoon)...there remains non-zero chances for
isolated sprinkles in the vicinity of a subtle trough/lake shadow
where 500-1000 j/kg of MLCAPE is available. However, limited
moisture/lift/coverage precludes any sprinkle/shower mention in
the grids at this time. Otherwise, temps will continue to run
above normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Shower/isolated thunder chances increase Wednesday/Wednesday night
as the Northern Plains upper low lifts nne toward Ontario/northern
Lakes. The trailing shortwave trough axis will force an active
frontal zone through mid week. Slow movement and ample moisture
return within pre-frontal theta-e ridge/LLJ fold in will support
the best opportunity for a period of rain/thunder Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday. Cooler/seasonable wx will follow
post-frontal Thursday and beyond as upper trough settles in. A
shortwave or two embedded in this nw flow regime will bring low
chances for precipitation over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1242 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will slowly slide east
this period. Light and variable winds tonight will become
east southeast 5 to 9 knots after daybreak with VFR conditions
through the period.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Lashley


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