Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 062018 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
318 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MANY LOCATIONS
SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE LIFTING
OUT OF THE UPPER LAKES WILL MAINTAIN DRY/QUIET CONDITIONS INTO
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATING TEMPS THE STORY INTO TONIGHT-SUNDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO NEAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG
A LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE. COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED
EXTREME HEIGHTS FALLS WILL SWEEP INTO OUR IN/MI COUNTIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERSPREAD OF DEEP UPWARD QG
FORCING WITH SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY HELP IGNITE THE
850-700 MB FGEN RESPONSE ALONG THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH SATURATION
PROBABLY DELAYED ENOUGH FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX NOT TO MATERIALIZE UNTIL
FRONT REACHES AREAS ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMS/IMPACTS TO BE LIMITED BY WARM NEAR SFC
LAYER. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN MIXES
WITH/CHANGES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE NARROW MID LVL DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS PNA RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
CONFIGURATION FOR THE EARLY-MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW.

MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US
WILL AID IN CARVING OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER UNDER THIS COLD POCKET
ALOFT (AT LEAST MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING) WILL SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES FOR HEADLINE WORTHY SNOW
AMOUNTS/IMPACTS WILL BE OVER OUR WNW/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS
AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. DEEPER SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE TO 15 KFT WILL ALSO EFFECTIVELY SEED LOWERING DGZ. BEST
RATES/HIGHER ACCUMS POSSIBLE HERE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS
AGGREGATE TROUGHING POTENTIALLY ENHANCED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A
SECONDARY TROUGH/SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX. LESSER SNOW ACCUMS/IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED INLAND BUT QUICK DUSTINGS/SQUALLY NATURE LIKELY TO
PROVIDE SOME SLICK/DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES MONDAY-TUESDAY. COLDEST
DAY LIKELY TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH PURE MULTIBANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT RATES/COVERAGE TO LESSEN AS
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PULLS AWAYS AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT THEREAFTER
WITH TRANSITION TO A LOWER AMPLITUDE NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDS XPCD THIS PD. NO SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS THIS PD
AS SFC RIDGE GIVES RELAXES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AHD OF INCOMING
POTENT NRN STREAM SW DIGGING INTO THE LAKES LT PD. INCREASING LL WAA
THOUGH MAY YIELD A MVFR SC CIG DECK LATE TONIGHT INVOF KSBN HWVR
GIVEN LACK OF SNOW COVER AND PREDICATED SUFFICIENT MIXING UNDER
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLDS LT PD WILL DISCOUNT THAT POSSIBILITY ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


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