Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 281942
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FILLING MID LVL SYSTEM OVER SERN MN TO BEGIN EWD ACCELERATION WITH
PROMPT OF TWO STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MINOR AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN MI FRIDAY
MORNING. SUBTLE DCVA PRESSING INTO NWRN/WCNTL IN AT THIS TIME MAY
AFFORD A FEW REDEVELOPING SHRA THIS EVENING...ESPCLY ACROSS SRN CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MINOR INSTABILITY POOL CNTL/SERN IN. DEPTH OF
COLD AIR ACRS CWA TOO GREAT TO AFFORD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHALLOW/BRIEF SHRA. ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD SIDE OF
OCCLUSAL TO LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM...WITH
SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SOME MINOR CONCERN
THAT MID LVL VORTICITY AND PERHAPS WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF EXTNDG
WEST OF FILLING UPPER OHIO VALLEY SURFACE LOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME EARLY MORNING/DAYBREAK LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND DISPARATE COLOCATION PRECLUDES LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF MENTION HERE AND TOKEN LOW POPS ACRS NRN TIER. RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED THICK CLOUD COVER.
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIDDAY/AFTN INSOLATION FRI WITH SURFACE
TEMPS MODERATING INTO UPPER 50S/LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN DAMPEN EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY
IN TANDEM WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE AS STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADV/CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS MOISTURE PROFILES
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND FORCING WANES WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO LINGERING BLOCKY/CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
KEEP SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SFC REFLECTION SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN MORE COOL/RAW EASTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND.

WESTERN NOAM REX BLOCK/WESTERN CANADA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED
NW FLOW/TROUGHING LOCALLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BY
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN LACKING MOISTURE RETURN/MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO PIVOT THROUGH SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TO ALLOW LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. CIGS LIKELY
TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR LIFR CIGS NEAR DAYBREAK AS SATURATION
LEVELS DEEPEN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL DZ/BR DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED AS
MIDLVL VORTEX /CURRENTLY STAGNATED OVER IA/MN BORDER/ SHIFTS EWD
INTO SRN LAKE MI/SRN MI TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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