Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 171747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
147 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SECONDARY SFC RIDGING WILL EXPAND SWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS PD
IN RESPONSE TO SW TROUGH AMPLIFYING THROUGH ERN CANADA. IDEA
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS UNDERNEATH LEAD SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY YIELDING A SMATTERING OF DENSE FOG OBSERVATIONS AS OF
07Z AND EXPANDED PREV PATCHY MENTION QUITE A BIT...ESP WRN/NRN AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. HWVR DTX RAOB INDICATED QUITE A DRY BL WHICH BELIES A
MORE SIG DENSE FOG THREAT YET WILL CONT TO MONITOR DVLPMNTS EARLY
THIS MORNING.

OTRWS ANOTHER STELLAR LT SUMMER DAY IN STORE W/TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA
W/MID-UPR 60S XPCD ACRS THE CWA. RENEWED SFC RIDGING AND CONTD DRY
AIRMASS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY...WITH READINGS
RISING ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY. RAISED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST
AREAS SATURDAY GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 17C PER GFS AND
ECMWF. THESE HIGHS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS MEX/MOS WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS. KEPT THUNDER OUT SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...NO CONVECTIVE ENERGY AVAILABLE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDING...FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION.  KEPT THUNDER IN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER LOW
LEVEL THETA E FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPS A COOL AND DRY FETCH OF AIR
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY WITH THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR A HEALTHY DIURNAL
STRATOCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATER
THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR
BR BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER VFR DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


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