Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011936
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
336 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT HAS BROUGHT LOTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO GAIN SOME MOMENTUM BUT ALSO
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY (MAINLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD) AS A
SERIES OF STRONGER PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT FROM CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN CANADA. FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THE MAIN IMPACTS OF
THE PROCESS WILL BE A FURTHER CARVING OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
HEIGHT RISES TO USHER IN A QUICK SHOT OF MUCH WARMER AIR BUT ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE. CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN
ILLINOIS WILL WORK EAST TONIGHT. MODELS VARY ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE MAIN LOW LEVEL
JET SETS UP TO THE WEST AGAIN. WHILE SOME SIGNALS SUGGEST A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN POPS IS WARRANTED IN THIS TIME FRAME ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO HOLD OFF ON EXTREME INCREASES AND SIMPLY INTRODUCE SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN AREAS AND WILL DEFER TO EVE SHIFT
TO MONITOR TRENDS. BETTER CHANCES DEFINITELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MAIN WAVE DRAWS CLOSER WITH LIKELY POPS
WARRANTED BY MID AFTERNOON IN WEST AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOCATIONS IN THE WEST AND NORTH COOLEST DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. IF RAINFALL DOES OCCUR/LINGER IN THE WEST
HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING REACHED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

POTENT SRN STREAM WAVE ACRS THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL DRIVE EWD SHRT
TERM AND THEN PHASE W/RAPIDLY SEWD DIGGING NRN STREAM SW OUT OF WRN
AB FRI. RESULTING SIGLY DEEP TROUGH DVLPMNT ACRS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SUBSEQUENTLY HIGHLITES THE PD EARLY ON.

AS WAS THE CASE YDA AND IN CONJUNCTION W/PRIOR SHIFT WILL AGAIN BUMP
POPS HIGHER LT THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT AM IN REFLECTION OF GREATER
TROUGH DIG/AMPLIFICATION SEEN THROUGHOUT THE 12Z GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.
IN FACT YDA/S OUTLIER ECMWF H7-5 EVOLUTION ALOFT NOW SEEN IN BOTH
THE GFS AND GEM...TAKING H5 HFC IN EXCESS OF 22 DM THROUGH SRN IN
FRI NIGHT. THUS WILL BREAK EVEN HIGHER LT FRI NIGHT W/LIKELY
MENTION ACRS THE NORTH IN LIGHT OF BOTH STGR LL THERMAL TROUGH
WRAPPING SEWD THROUGH CWA UNDERNEATH WHAT SHLD BE A ROBUST COMMAHEAD INVOF
OF BOTTOMING NRN STREAM SW. THAT SAID...ENOUGH DETAIL/TIMING
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO HOLD W/HIGH CHC MENTION FOR THE MOMENT SAT AM.
HWVR REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION YDA/S 40 DEGREE HOLD HUNCH HOLDS PER
LWR TRENDING GUIDANCE TEMPS AND WILL HEDGE LWR FURTHER THIS CYCLE.

SLW MODERATION FOLLOWS THEN INTO EARLY NXT WEEK ALTHOUGH PUNCTUATED
BY A PAIR OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN STEEP NW FLW ALOFT.
TIMING/DETAILS VARY CONSIDERABLY YET WILL FOLLOW SUPER BLEND
APPROXIMATION IN SPITE OF ANYTHING ELSE MAKING A MORE COMPELLING
CASE TO STRAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MIX
OUT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
AND THICKEN WITH TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER 18Z THURS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


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