Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 180901
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
501 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE AREA REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014


HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MID MORNING FOR AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF WARSAW. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED AND SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 930 AM EDT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL
ALLOW THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. WEAK FLOW OVER THE AREA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. DRIER AIR WAS SPREADING INTO NW
OHIO WITH AN EAST FLOW...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND WILL HELP
PREVENT STORMS TODAY IN THIS AREA. STABLE MID LEVEL CONDITIONS WITHOUT
ANY LOW LEVEL OR MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY TO AREAS SOUTH OF FT WAYNE WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MAY ALLOW A
FEW STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROF SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES SHOULD STAY
UNDER 1000 J/KG...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 1.75 INCH PER BUFKIT SOUNDING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SOMEWHAT BTR AGREEMENT NOTED IN 00Z SOLUTIONS WRT TO SEWD DIG OF
DISTURBANCE OVR SE SK THIS MORNING INTO THE WRN LAKES BY TUE EVE.
HWVR LEADING PREFNTL TROUGH ASSOCD/W THIS SYS IS FASTER IN NEARLY
ALL SOLUTIONS LENDS SOME REFINEMENT TO POPS DURING THE DAY TUE.
OTRWS HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SUBSTANTIALLY IN WAKE OF THIS FTR TUE
NIGHT-WED EVE IN LIGHT OF SWD SUPPRESSION OF SUBSTANTIAL LL THETA-E
RIDGE. HWVR LTR WED NIGHT FLW IS PROGGED TO BACK SWRLY INADV OF
ANOTHER SW DISTURBANCE ADVG THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LL MASS FLUX
APPEARS QUITE WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH WITHIN OTRWS CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS YET MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND HAVE
RELUCTANTLY HELD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH DY5 (FRI) IN RESPECT OF
CONSENSUS WAVE SFC FNTL BNDRY POSITION THROUGH THE SRN LAKES. AT
SOME POINT THIS DY3-5 MESS WILL BECOME CLEARER AND ADMITTEDLY CLEANER.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP FCST...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF SRN/SERN US
UPR RIDGE WILL YIELD CONTD EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF LL THERMAL
RIDGE. SOME POSITIVE FEEDBACK NOTED YDA W/MAX TEMPS AND A SIGN OF
DEEPENING SOIL MSTR ANOMALIES AND W/GENERAL DOUBTS OF WIDESPREAD SIG
RAINFALL MATERIALIZING THIS WEEK SUSPECT 90 DEGREE TEMPS LIKELY NXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

WEAK FLOW WAS OVER NRN INDIANA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. DRIER AIR WAS SPREADING INTO NW OHIO WITH AN
EAST FLOW...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. SKIES HAD CLEARED
OUT OVER FWA...ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WERE DECREASING WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. KEPT TEMPO LOW IFR AT FWA GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
GROUND FOG GIVEN TEMP/MOISTURE FILE PER BUFKIT SOUNDING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING GIVEN DAYTIME MIXING.
KEPT THUNDER OUT TONIGHT GIVEN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003-012>016-020-022>024-032.

MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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