Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 141926
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
326 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One last round of thunderstorms is expected to develop rapidly
  this afternoon from near Rochester to Fort Wayne to Ottawa and
  then move south into early tonight. Large hail, damaging winds
  and tornados are possible.

- Mostly dry Friday through the middle of next week.

- Turning colder Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

One last round of thunderstorms is expected to develop rapidly
this afternoon as skies clear and conditions destabilize
rapidly behind the previous line of storms that had moved east
out of the area. Surface based CAPE at 3pm EDT had risen to
between 1500 to 2000 J/Kg near Monticello where skies had
cleared. Widespread rainfall amounts since midnight had left
water encroaching or partly covering many roads as well has
standing in many fields. Have issued a Special Weather Statement
earlier to address these concerns. Ft Wayne received the most
daily rainfall in over a year (2.11") so far and is vulnerable
for more advisory type flooding if new storm development is over
their area and other areas which received heavy rain. An
Elevated Mixed Layer reflected in lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.7 C/Km
was present per SPC mesoanalysis reaching from most of IL to
the southwest corner of the forecast area near Monticello.
Concern for tornados with initial storm environment favoring
high wind shear in the lower/boundary layer, so mentioned this
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook Product.

Otherwise, storms will move rapidly south out of the area by
mid to late evening. Conditions will become much colder Sunday
and persist through Tuesday before milder air returns Wednesday.
Little if any precipitation is expected during this period at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Line of convection should clear KFWA by or shortly after
issuance with dry and mainly VFR conditions to follow at least
for a few hours at each site. Whether scattered convection
refires in the vicinity of a cold front in the vicinity of KFWA
late this afternoon will depend on the thermodynamic recovery.
Some clearing noted back into IL with temps likely to recover
into the 60s. Opted for a VCTS for now btw 20-01z to account for
the potential. Fuel alt stratocu is then likely to settle in
post-frontal into tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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