Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Issued at 442 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

A drier, less humid airmass will persist today as high pressure
builds into the region. Afternoon highs will primarily be in the
middle to upper 80s today. The humidity will gradually build
through the week with the next chance for showers and storms will
come Thursday into Saturday as an upper level trough deepens
across the middle part of the nation.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 437 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Strong insolation to likely provide diurnal plus rises today despite
lack of any appreciable low level thermal advection. Deep moisture
scour across southern Great Lakes extends westward into IA/NE with
little more than few high based cu/high lcl along with gradual
thinning/sewd shunt of ci shield. Sided a bit warmer than blend
today given optimal mid summer insolation and upstream temps


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 437 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Primarily status quo through long term. Continued good intermodel
agreement on mid conus troffing with bifurcation of subtropical
ridge between Desert SW and Bermuda High. Several northern stream
shortwaves with first sig wave now into central MT to likely need
to slowly overcome initial low level moisture deficits across
forecast area with initial circuitous GOMEX moisture that
eventually whittles into Dy3. Subsequent waves/increasing mid trop
height falls suggest Thu night into Fri as best period of
shra/tsra...though coverage likely to remain isold-sct given lack
of sig low level focus identified. Additional waves and hint at
quasi-stationary boundary along i-70 corridor supports continued
mention into first part of weekend as well. Release of Gulf of AK
vortex into BC/Pac NW to begin to provide gradual low amplitude
ridge extension from 4 corners into the Northern Plains spreading
eastward into far western Upper Great Lakes early next week.
Collaborative effort utilized to eschew low blended pops DY6-7.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the period with just a few
diurnal cu this afternoon and some high clouds from convection to
our south. Clouds will scatter overnight and calm winds may
support some patchy ground fog but low levels remain on the dry
side. Crossover temps in the low 60s may be difficult to
reach/exceed. A brief period of MVFR visibilities may be possible
around sunrise...mainly at KFWA...but confidence is too low to
include in the TAFs at this time.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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