Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 230607

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
207 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Chances or rain will increase today roughly northwest of a Marion
to Fort Wayne to Hillsdale line. An isolated thunderstorm is also
possible across these locations. Otherwise, partly to mostly
cloudy conditions will be in store today. Rain chances will expand
eastward across the remainder of the area tonight into Wednesday
morning, with rain showers becoming likely Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday.
High temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid to upper
60s across southwest Lower Michigan to the mid 70s across
northwest Ohio. Low temperatures tonight will drop back into the
lower to mid 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Only token chances for light rain showers clipping northwest cwa
overnight as primary focus will become increasingly displaced
westward as intense shortwave driving southward through eastern SD
aids in refocus of upper level vortex, presently near Arrowhead
Region, southward through the Mississippi Valley. Orphaned/elevated
moisture thwarted by dry sub cloud airmass as well as weak/minoring
impulses within westerly mid level flow, to likely result in few
hundredths shra at best. Raised low temps slightly northwest CWA as
cloud deck should thicken/lower radiative losses overnight.
Continued slight chance tsra along with rising shra chances for
Tuesday as upstream system continues southward dig.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 403 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

More southerly dig of system over prior runs to provide prodigious
northward onslaught of deep layer moisture flux convergence through
CWA on Wednesday. Sig bump in model blended qpf as well. For now
will withhold ESF/HWO mention, however potential for renewed
flooding on the increase and may need to be addressed should later
model runs continue to center upon similar solutions. Final ejection
of system through TN Valley into western PA on Thursday to bring
diminished rainfall rates/west to east end of rainfall. Greater
diverging solutions with time into the weekend. Will maintain
consistency with chc shra/lesser chc tsra this weekend amid
minor perturbations within wswly flow into area and northward
advance of probable/diffuse warm front laid out from OK to the
Lower Ohio Valley. Northern stream systems likely to remain in
high belted/blocking pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Several weak perturbations in southwest upper flow will be working
across the southern Great Lakes region today, downstream of
primary upper level low across northern IA/southern MN. Broad low
level pre-frontal convergence axis should set up from central IL
into northern IN later this morning which may serve as a focus for
scattered shower activity later this morning/afternoon possibly
affecting KSBN area. Instability will be on the marginal side and
will withhold any thunder mention at this time. Rain shower
chances should be enhanced once again late tonight and beyond this
forecast valid period as sfc trough approaches from the west.
Some sharpening of inverted sfc trough feature west of the area
today will eventually support shift to light east-northeast winds
later this afternoon/early evening. Generally expecting VFR
conditions through this period, although some potential of MVFR
cigs at KSBN toward the end of this forecast valid period.




LONG TERM...Murphy

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