Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 252242

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
642 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible this evening. An isolated strong storm is possible with
the main threat as isolated gusty winds. Dry weather is then
expected Friday, with the next chances for showers and
thunderstorms arriving early Saturday. Highs will stay in the 80s
through Saturday with lows in the 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Water vapor imagery indicates weak upper PV anomaly over southern
Lower MI and northern IN has moved east to northwest OH and
southeast Lower MI, with a corresponding weakening of convection
in its wake. MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg extends into western OH but
satellite indicates deeper convection over MI beneath the best
upper forcing. Some convection allowing models suggest that rain
showers associated with convection over IA/IL may sneak into the
area this evening, but that would most likely be before 10 PM and
short lived. High confidence for dry condition Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Some indications of showers and thunderstorms are expected the
middle of next week. However predictability and certainty with
timing both remain low given that this is associated with a low
amplitude wave in largely zonal flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Broad low level confluence in association with slowly dropping
frontal boundary across the southern Great Lakes is expected to
combine with a couple of weak disturbances lifting out of Missouri
for a potential of isolated showers and storms this evening. May
include a VCSH mention at KFWA with frontal boundary expected to
be far enough south to keep KSBN north of more favored area.
Generally expecting VFR conditions through this period although
cannot completely discount some patchy fog across northeast
Indiana early Friday morning. Confidence remains too low for any
fog mention and will maintain VFR conditions through the period
with high pressure providing dry conditions/light winds for


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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