Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 200510

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1210 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Issued at 252 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Clouds will decrease through the evening hours and winds will
diminish to between 5 and 10 mph. Low temperatures overnight will
drop into the middle and upper 20s. Monday will see sunshine with
breezy conditions as high temperatures climb into the 40s. A weak
cold front will bring a small chance for light showers Tuesday
afternoon with colder temperatures behind it along with small
chances for light lake effect snow showers Tuesday night. The
holiday period of Wednesday through Friday should be dry with
seasonably cool temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Quiet short term weather as high pressure slides across the
southern CONUS tonight and Monday while a warmer but breezy return
flow sets up for our local area.

Clouds persistent as usual this time of year under strong inversion
with NW flow and lake contribution. Models have been overly
aggressive on dissipation. Visible sat loops have shown breaks in
the west but cold air advection over moist ground has led to
increased stratocumulus development. Drier air finally making some
progress into far west late this afternoon. With loss of heating
this evening along with subsidence and departing thermal trough and
backing flow should see more clearing in the low levels. Fast moving
jet streak diving southeast out of northern plains may bring some
high level clouds across western areas. Forecast will remain dry
this short term period. Weak gradient in place tonight along with
developing warm air advection aloft will help temps from bottoming
out but still expect a cold night with lows in the 20s. Nice
recovery expected on Monday with strong southwest flow and decent
mixing heights leading to high temperatures recovering into the 40s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

A repeating pattern of fast moving, moisture starved short waves
and associated cold fronts expected through the period. First wave
will race across southern Canada Tuesday dragging a cold front
across our area in the afternoon. Models have been trending
slightly deeper with moisture and frontal scale lift along tight
baroclinic zone with frontal passage. Given increasing signal have
allowed a low chance pop to accompany this boundary with best
chances north and east. Temperatures expected to fall in the
afternoon back into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

A weak lake effect signal remains in place for Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning, not too different from what we saw
overnight into this morning. Inversion heights currently progged to
remain near 5kft with very dry air aloft. Only a small portion of
DGZ drops below inversion and barely saturated. Light snow showers
or flurries in narrow multi-bands similar to this morning expected.
Measureable precipitation questionable but will add a slight chance
pop given similar nature to what we saw this morning.

Rinse and repeat for Thursday into Friday. High pressure again
slides by to our south Wednesday night and Thursday providing a dry
but cool holiday. A weak front may try to drop south Thursday night
but looks to wash out and quickly return north as a warm front on
Friday with breezy conditions developing. Another fast moving short
wave and cold front pass on Saturday with colder temps dropping in
and another chance for light precipitation and possible lake effect
snow showers next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR this period as sfc ridging drifts ewd through the TN valley.
Fairly vigorous return flow though by aftn with swrly gusts aoa


LM...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley

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