000
FXUS63 KIWX 062333
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
633 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH HIGH RECOVERING INTO THE 40S
ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH ON SATURDAY
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

DRY/QUIET WX WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS FOR MANY
AREAS TONIGHT GIVEN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOW COVER.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WITH WEAK LOW LVL THERMAL RIDGE FOLDING
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A WARMER DAY
TOMORROW. LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW WARM IT CAN GET GIVEN EARLY
MARCH SUN/SNOW COVER BATTLE AND IMPACTS ON MIXING DEPTHS. KEPT
CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT MOS/RAW DATA
COOL BIAS IN SIMILAR WAA/STALE SNOW COVER REGIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

SPLITTING WRN ENERGY XPCD TO START THE PD ON SAT W/NRN STREAM SW
TRACKING THROUGH JAMES BAY WHILE SRN PORTION ELONGATES SWWD THROUGH
THE SRN PLAINS. CERTAINLY A LACK OF CONSISTENCY AMG ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IN HANDLING OF THIS SYS YET SEE LTL REASON TO CLING TO
PRIOR FCST GIVEN OVERALL POOR LG SCALE SYNOPTIC SPRT AND POOR MSTR
RTN THUS WILL FOLLOW 12Z LOOSE CONSENSUS MOS POP BLEND.

OTRWS APPRECIABLE FLATTENING OF THE FLW XPCD AHD OF VIGOROUS SW
TROUGH DIGGING SWD OUT OF CANADA MID PD. HWVR HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE IS ALL OVR THE PLACE W/A MYRIAD ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS.
NONETHELESS MODEST LL THERMAL RIDGING XPCD TO DVLP DOWNSTREAM OF
BURGEONING H5 HFC OF WHICH SHLD YIELD SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS MON-TUE.
AFT THAT PIC GROWS QUITE MURKY ESP WRT DETAILS ASSOCD WITH WHAT
SHLD BE A VIGOROUS MID LAT CYCLONE INVOF THE MID MS VALLEY LT TUE
INTO WED. 12Z SOLUTIONS RANGE FM A GEM BASED 987MB LOW OVR SE
MI...GFS BASED 998MB LOW OVR CNTRL VA AND EC BASED 988MB LOW OVR SRN
KY. HWVR GIVEN NARROWING SPREAD AMG GEM/EC/GEFS WILL TREND TUE
NIGHT-WED HIGHER. REGARDLESS THIS SYS BEARS WATCHING AND WILL
SPEARHEAD THE REDVLPMNT OF AT LEAST BRIEF ERN NOAM TROUGHING LT PD
W/YET ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS RNTG TO THE ERN US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LEWIS


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