Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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717
FXUS63 KIWX 012333
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
733 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF ROUTE 24. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL SBCAPE OVER FAR SERN CWA APPROACHING 1000 J/KG THIS
EVENING TO AFFORD JUST SLIGHT CHC TSRA. OTHERWISE CWA LARGELY
REMAINS IN COLD SECTOR WITH MINIMAL MUCAPE, HOWEVER 40-60M/122 HR
HEIGHT RISES AND SUCCINCT I300K UPGLIDE INCREASING THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH 8 PLUS G/KG TAP TO AFFORD BURGEONING SHRA DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE BLENDED APPROACH APPEARS GOOD
THROUGH SHORT TERM PD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LONG DURATION ROCKIES RIDGING AND NERN THIRD CONUS TROFFING FROM MID
WEEK ON LEADING TO POTENTIALLY ACTIVE MIDWEEK RAFL. RATHER COOL
PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW MODERATING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST PRECLUDES TSRA MENTION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VORT MAX OVER WEST CENTRAL IL CAUSING SHRA/TS TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL/NRN IL EARLY THIS EVE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NE INTO LWR MI TONIGHT WITH SHRA CONTG TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AHEAD OF IT. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS WITH LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVE LOWERING TO IFR AND THEN TO LIFR
OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS BUT DIURNAL COOLING AND WK CAA SATURATES
BOUNDARY LAYER. WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW TS TO OCCUR
ACROSS NRN INDIANA AS THE SHRA MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
TS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN OUR AREA DUE TO WK INSTABILITY
SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONT
MONDAY LOCKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN BENEATH INVERSION ALOFT ONLY
ALLOWING CIGS TO RISE ONLY TO MVFR DURING THE DAY. SHRA PSBL AGAIN
MONDAY AFTN AS ANOTHER WK SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE SCT AT BEST SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


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