000
FXUS63 KIWX 252011
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
311 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FEW CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
REQUIRING FUEL ALTERNATE PLANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXPECTED
SO NO BLSN TO WORRY ABOUT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES. SOME OF THE
MODELS HINT AT LOWER IFR CIGS MATERIALIZING AND LINGERING AT KFWA.
HAVE NOT WENT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH CONCERNS FOR EXACT IMPACTS AS
MAIN SYSTEM WEAKENS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


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